Betting
1/11/24
5 min read
2024 Fantasy Football: Betr Picks for Wild-Card Weekend
Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Jordan Vanek created a Betr entry slip for Wild-Card Weekend. Below, they outline the reasoning for the eight picks they hope will turn $25 into $2,475.
Use promo code 33rdTeam when you sign up for Betr to get a 100 percent deposit match up to $500. Deposit $100 into your account, and you now have $200. Deposit $500 into your account to have $1000. Betr’s deposit match is five times higher than the industry standard for picks apps.
Wild-Card Weekend Betr Picks
Jared Goff MORE than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Three years ago, the Rams viewed Matthew Stafford as a full two first-round picks more valuable than Jared Goff. While this is a dual revenge game, it’s certainly more of one for Goff.
In addition to the added motivation from how the Rams disrespected him, Goff has truly ludicrous home-away splits. When playing in the Ford Field dome in Detroit, Goff averages 1.5 more passing touchdowns per game than when he’s on the road.
These past two seasons in Detroit, Goff has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but three home games. The Rams also allowed the 10th-most passing touchdowns per game to opponents, so the matchup, independent of the revenge narratives, is still a solid one on paper.
Matthew Stafford MORE than 275.5 Passing Yards
Stafford reached 275.5 passing yards in four of his final five games to close out 2023, and his one miss during that time was when he had 258 yards against the Washington Commanders.
The Lions should score against the Rams and keep this game competitive, ensuring Stafford throws often. Against Detroit during the regular season, quarterbacks averaged 268 yards per game (second-highest) at 7.8 yards per attempt (second). The Lions held running backs to just 60 rushing yards per game (last).
The path to beating Detroit is through the air, and Stafford is well-positioned to shred his former team Sunday night.
Josh Allen FEWER than 1.5 Sacks Taken
Josh Allen has taken fewer than 1.5 sacks in 11 of 17 games this season (65 percent). Overall, he took sacks on just four percent of his dropbacks, the lowest in the NFL.
He’s played four games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he’s been sacked once or fewer in three of those four. The Steelers' pass rush will be without superstar EDGE T.J. Watt for this contest, so it will be diminished. And there are heavy winds and cold temperatures projected for this game, so the Bills will likely run the ball more than usual.
On many sites, Allen’s pass attempts projection for this game is under 30, even though he averaged 34 per game during the regular season. With fewer attempts comes fewer chances for Pittsburgh's pass rush to get to Allen.
Harrison Butker FEWER than 1.5 Field Goals Made
The game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins should feature sub-zero temperatures when factoring in wind chill, which hurts kickers — in this contest: Harrison Butker. This season, teams attempted just 1.2 field goals per game against Miami, last in the NFL.
Jaylen Warren MORE than 36.5 Rushing Yards
The strong winds and cold temperatures in Buffalo will be conducive to the Steelers' run game. Jaylen Warren has reached 37 rushing yards in eight of his past 13 games (62 percent), and two of those five misses were when Warren had six and five carries in Weeks 7 and 8.
It’s difficult to imagine him having fewer than eight or nine carries in a game like this. During the regular season against Buffalo, running backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry, tied for the seventh-most among NFL defenses.
Tua Tagovailoa MORE than 0.5 Interception
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown an interception on 2.3 percent of his pass attempts the past two seasons with Mike McDaniel.
In this game against the Chiefs, Tagovailoa’s pass attempts is projected around 33.5. If we assume he goes under and attempts 33 passes, we could expect him to throw an interception 53.4 percent of the time (after 100,000 simulations). If we assume he’s just over at 34 attempts, we should expect him to throw a pick 55 percent of the time.
The game temperature will be an important factor here. Tagovailoa has minimal experience in cold-weather games to begin with, and this should be the coldest NFL contest he’s ever taken part in — by a full 15-25 degrees.
Jayden Reed MORE than 48.5 Receiving Yards
Jayden Reed is 7-9 on this MORE pick for the season, but he’s had two narrow misses (games with 48 and 46 yards). Reed has caught fire down the stretch — as many rookie wide receivers do — with at least 52 yards or 10 targets in his past four games.
The Dallas Cowboys' defense has allowed multiple wide receivers from the same team to reach 50 yards in five of the team's past seven games — Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in Week 12; DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 13; A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 14; Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Week 16; Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in Week 17.
Christian Watson should suit up for the Green Bay Packers, but he hasn’t played in over a month due to a hamstring injury. That means 48.5 receiving yards is a low number for the Packers' top passing game option in a solid offense.
Chris Godwin MORE than 56.5 Receiving Yards
Chris Godwin has had more than 56.5 receiving yards in three of his past five games, and the two misses were by just four and six yards. The Philadelphia Eagles' secondary is a disaster, and this game has some sneaky shootout potential.
Both the Eagles’ and Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive lines can mitigate the opponent’s pass rush, and each team has a bottom-tier secondary.
Use promo code 33rdTeam when you sign up for Betr to get a 100 percent deposit match up to $500. This current deal is five times the industry standard for picks apps.
