Analysis
10/20/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 7 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox
- Runback: WR DeVante Parker
The New England Patriots heavily employ man coverage, and when they do, Josh Allen frequently targets Stefon Diggs. The Patriots have struggled to contain Diggs since he arrived in Buffalo and have one of their weakest defenses under Bill Belichick. Diggs excels against man coverage this season, and I hope New England assigns J.C. Jackson to cover him again, just like they did in a 2020 meeting between these teams when Diggs torched him for 145 yards and three touchdowns.
Allen has been consistently productive against the Patriots, throwing for two or more touchdowns in three consecutive games and rushing at least eight times. With the Buffalo Bills as 8.5-point favorites, they'll rely on Allen to generate points. I'm pairing him with Dawson Knox for salary savings at tight end, hoping Knox catches one of the touchdowns.
The Bills have injuries in their secondary, and DeVante Parker can make an early big play for a touchdown, helping Allen score more points. Parker had a two-touchdown game in his last outing against the Bills, and most of his career production has come against them. Parker offers a cost-effective way to stack this game and afford an Allen and Diggs combination.
- Stack: QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews
- Runback: RB Jahmyr Gibbs
The Detroit Lions are likely to employ zone coverage for the majority of the game, and Lamar Jackson has shown his proficiency with an average of 9.3 yards per attempt against zone defenses this season. Defenses are wary of testing him in man coverage because of his running ability, making zone coverage a smart choice. His preferred targets in zone coverage are Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, who collectively account for a significant share of targets.
Selecting a Lions running back is a bit challenging due to their current injuries, but Jahmyr Gibbs seems like a promising option. He's returning from injury, and while we're uncertain about his workload, the Baltimore Ravens have allowed running backs to gain more than eight yards per reception. This makes the pass-catching aspect a potential source of value for Gibbs. Additionally, among WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds, there are viable options to consider.
- Stack: QB Jordan Love, RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson
The Denver Broncos struggle to defend deep passes, and Jordan Love boasts the highest depth of target among starting quarterbacks. This sets the stage for Christian Watson, a primary downfield target with six targets over 20 air yards. I'm going all-in on the Green Bay Packers in this game, particularly eyeing Aaron Jones, who might make a comeback from injury and could be a valuable asset in the screen game against the Broncos.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp or WR Puka Nacua
- Runback: WR George Pickens or WR Diontae Johnson
To solve their running back issue, the Los Angeles Rams should lean on the passing game more. The Rams often use balanced formations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed a high 10.1 yards per pass attempt against this formation. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are strong choices for this matchup, backed by solid stats. The Steelers have given up big points to multiple wide receivers this season, and I will want one of these two in my lineups.
The Steelers are coming off a bye week, and we've seen physical wide receivers excel against the Rams' secondary. Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown scored more than 20 DK points. I prefer George Pickens, but Diontae Johnson playing in the slot can also put up a high total without scoring.
- Stack: QB Sam Howell, WR Terry McLaurin
- Runback: WR Darius Slayton or WR Jalin Hyatt
The New York Giants often run Cover 1, and Sam Howell has been impressive with 8.9 yards per attempt against it this season. Terry McLaurin is a key target with almost 30 percent of throws in this coverage, and he averages more than 3.0 yards per route run.
The Washington Commanders have struggled with defending vertical routes this season, and Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt rely on these routes for more than 27 percent of their plays. It's worth noting that Hyatt saw increased playing time in Week 6 against the Bills.
Mini-Stacks
- ARI at SEA
- WR Marquise Brown, RB Kenneth Walker III
Your go-to player from the Arizona Cardinals should be Marquise Brown. When facing the Seattle Seahawks' frequent use of single-high coverages, Brown shines with a remarkable 40 percent target share and averages 2.8 yards per route run. Despite some missed deep connections with Josh Dobbs, the opportunity is there and should continue against the Seahawks.
Kenneth Walker III is another key player to watch, but he'll need touchdowns to justify his price. He's been dominant in goal-line situations and has secured more than 70 percent of the team's rushing attempts in consecutive weeks. Given the Seahawks' status as favorites, this game presents a prime opportunity for Walker to achieve his first 100-yard performance of 2023.
One-offs
- RB Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs will get a ton of volume in this matchup from the passing and rushing games. The Las Vegas Raiders are playing with a backup quarterback and taking on the Chicago Bears without Justin Fields. Jacobs is very popular but should be across all formats.
- WR Amari Cooper
Last week against the San Francisco 49ers, Amari Cooper was able to produce against the top defense in football with P.J. Walker under center last week for the Cleveland Browns, and Cooper now gets an easier matchup with Deshaun Watson questionable for Week 7. Cooper is not popular at his price and has an opportunity to be a perfect pivot off of the Seattle pass catchers.
- Chiefs Players
Keep an eye on three Kansas City Chiefs players: RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce. Among them, Rice is my top pick due to his affordability and lower popularity. Kelce ranks lower on my list because of Baltimore TE Andrews' popularity and cost savings at the position. Pacheco is my second choice because he complements the defense and creates a unique game environment when paired with Patrick Mahomes.
Defenses
- Washington Commanders
The Commanders have had plenty of sacks this season, and the Giants' offensive line continues to get hurt. This is an easy play if you have the salary and are not attacking the game.
- Cleveland Browns
The Browns are one of the best defenses in football, and they are simply too cheap. With Gardner Minshew at quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland should be able to generate sacks and turnovers.
- Pittsburgh Steelers
There is a path where QB Matthew Stafford doesn’t have time to throw the ball and Pittsburgh’s defense generates sacks that lead to turnovers. I am only looking to play the Steelers’ defense when I am not playing a Rams player.
- Baltimore Ravens
Detroit QB Jared Goff excels as a passer in a pressure-free environment, but Baltimore has consistently applied pressure on more than 40 percent of dropbacks in five of six weeks.
- Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have an underrated defense, and the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a pressure-generating blueprint against the Los Angeles Chargers. With strong cornerbacks, Kansas City can likely double WR Keenan Allen throughout the game.
Player Pool
| Pos. | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Josh Allen | BUF | NE | $8,200 | $9,000 |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | DET | $7,600 | $8,000 |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | LA | PIT | $6,500 | $6,700 |
| QB | Jordan Love | GB | DEN | $5,800 | $7,800 |
| QB | Sam Howell | WAS | NYG | $5,500 | $7,400 |
| RB | Austin Ekeler | LAC | KC | $8,600 | $9,400 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | LV | CHI | $7,400 | $8,000 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | TB | $7,300 | $7,500 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | ARI | $7,000 | $8,800 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | GB | DEN | $6,800 | $7,700 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | BAL | $6,300 | $6,200 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | LAC | $6,100 | $7,400 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS | NYG | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | BUF | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DEN | GB | $5,400 | $6,000 |
| RB | AJ Dillon | GB | DEN | $5,300 | $6,400 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | ATL | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| RB | D'Onta Foreman | CHI | LV | $4,800 | $6,300 |
| RB | Zach Evans | LA | PIT | $4,000 | $4,800 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | PIT | $9,500 | $9,700 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | $8,900 | $9,000 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | BAL | $8,000 | $8,200 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | PIT | $7,600 | $7,300 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | ATL | $7,100 | $7,600 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | ATL | $6,900 | $6,500 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | ARI | $6,800 | $7,700 |
| WR | Amari Cooper | CLE | IND | $6,100 | $6,800 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | ARI | $6,000 | $6,800 |
| WR | Gabe Davis | BUF | NE | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | GB | $5,800 | $6,000 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | DET | $5,700 | $6,300 |
| WR | Christian Watson | GB | DEN | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| WR | George Pickens | PIT | LA | $5,500 | $7,100 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | NYG | $5,400 | $7,200 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | SEA | $5,300 | $6,700 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | DEN | GB | $5,200 | $4,500 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | PIT | LA | $5,000 | $6,000 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | GB | DEN | $4,900 | $6,200 |
| WR | Joshua Palmer | LAC | KC | $4,800 | $6,500 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | LAC | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | NYG | $4,600 | $5,400 |
| WR | Kendrick Bourne | NE | BUF | $4,400 | $5,800 |
| WR | Josh Reynolds | DET | BAL | $4,300 | $6,100 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | PIT | $4,300 | $5,200 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | WAS | NYG | $4,000 | $6,400 |
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | DET | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | ARI | $3,900 | $4,900 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | DET | BAL | $3,800 | $5,600 |
| WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WAS | $3,800 | $5,600 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | GB | DEN | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| WR | Darius Slayton | NYG | WAS | $3,700 | $5,700 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | BAL | DET | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| WR | Nelson Agholor | BAL | DET | $3,400 | $5,200 |
| WR | DeVante Parker | NE | BUF | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | LAC | $3,200 | $5,000 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WAS | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | LAC | $8,000 | $8,500 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | BAL | DET | $5,700 | $6,900 |
| TE | Tyler Higbee | LA | PIT | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| TE | Logan Thomas | WAS | NYG | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| TE | Luke Musgrave | GB | DEN | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | NE | $3,100 | $4,700 |
| TE | Dawson Knox | BUF | NE | $2,900 | $4,800 |
| TE | Cade Otton | TB | ATL | $2,900 | $4,700 |
| TE | Michael Mayer | LV | CHI | $2,700 | $4,900 |
| DST | Commanders | WAS | NYG | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | IND | $3,300 | $4,500 |
| DST | Giants | NYG | WAS | $3,000 | $3,400 |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | DET | $2,500 | $4,100 |
| DST | Chiefs | KC | LAC | $2,400 | $4,400 |
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
