Betting
12/22/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 Betting Preview for Every Game
I’ve watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article I’ll discuss how I’m treating various situations in each of those formats. I’ll also provide updates on line movement, while providing updated score predictions when applicable.
Steelers vs. Bengals
Spread: Steelers +3
Total: 38
The spread in this contest has moved from Steelers +2.5 to Steelers +3. The total has moved between 37 and 38 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a very volatile quarterback situation, but they beat Cincinnati 16-10 in Week 12. My ratio for this contest will be closer to even.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Steelers 16, Bengals 13
Chargers vs. Bills
Spread: Chargers +12.5
Total: 44
The spread for this contest has moved from Los Angeles Chargers +14 down to Chargers +11.5. On Thursday it moved back up to Chargers +12.5. The total has moved between 42.5 and 44 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Buffalo Bills to be used in nearly all entries. I will use the Bills in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have the Bills, they are an excellent option this week.
Score Prediction: Bills 33, Chargers 13
Vikings vs. Lions
Spread: Vikings +3
Total: 47.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Vikings +3.5 to Vikings +3. The total has moved from 47 to 47.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in more than 85 percent of entries. The Minnesota Vikings are a highly motivated team that makes for a solid leverage option from a game theory perspective. I intend to be roughly even with the field with my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Lions 23, Vikings 20
Panthers vs. Packers
Spread: Panthers +5
Total: 37.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Panthers +4.5 to Panthers +5. The total has moved from 36.5 to 37.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Green Bay Packers to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. The Carolina Panthers are a potential leverage option, but I will stay roughly even with the field on Green Bay.
Survivor Pools: We saw last week that the Packers aren't trustworthy, but if you can’t use them here, you can’t use them at all.
Score Prediction: Packers 17, Panthers 13
Falcons vs. Colts
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total: 44.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Falcons +2.5 to Falcons -2.5. The total has stayed at 44.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Indianapolis Colts to be used in more than 75 percent of entries. I like the Atlanta Falcons as a leverage option, where I will play them in at least 50 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Colts 20
Texans vs. Browns
Spread: Texans +3
Total: 40
The spread for this contest has moved from Texans -2.5 to Texans +3. The total has moved from 42 down to 40 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cleveland Browns to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. If C.J. Stroud misses this contest, I will use the Browns in all my entries. If Stroud plays, I’ll be slightly Houston Texans heavy.
Survivor Pools: If Stroud misses this contest, the Browns are an aggressive, but playable option.
Score Prediction with C.J. Stroud: Texans 21, Browns 20
Score Prediction without C.J. Stroud: Browns 17, Texans 13
Jets vs. Commanders
Spread: Jets -3
Total: 37
The spread for this contest has stayed at Jets -3 with only brief fluctuations. The total has moved from 38 down to 37.
Winner Pools: Expect the New York Jets to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. If Zach Wilson starts, I will be in line with the field on this matchup. If Wilson is out, I will be slightly Washington Commanders heavy with my entries.
Survivor Pools: If Zach Wilson plays, the Jets are an aggressive survivor option this late in the season.
Score Prediction with Zach Wilson: Jets 20, Commanders 10
Score Prediction without Zach Wilson: Commanders 13, Jets 10
Titans vs. Seahawks
Spread: Titans +3.5
Total: 41.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Titans +2.5 to Titans +3.5. The total has moved from 42.5 down to 41.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Seattle Seahawks to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. The Tennessee Titans are a leverage option worth consideration, especially if you are behind in the season-long portion of your pool.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Titans 23
Buccaneers vs. Jaguars
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Total: 40.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Buccaneers +1 to Buccaneers -3. The total has moved from 43.5 down to 40.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect both teams to be used in roughly 50 percent of entries. If Trevor Lawrence plays, I will be Jacksonville Jaguars heavy. If Lawrence sits, I will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in all my entries.
Survivor Pools: If Lawrence sits, the Buccaneers become an aggressive, but usable option.
Score Prediction with Trevor Lawrence: Jaguars 24, Buccaneers 20
Score Prediction without Trevor Lawrence: Buccaneers 20, Jaguars 13
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Spread: Dolphins -1
Total: 50
The spread for this contest has moved from Dolphins -1.5 to Dolphins -1. The total has moved from 51 down to 50 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Miami Dolphins to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. I will play the Dallas Cowboys in approximately 75 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 21
Bears vs. Cardinals
Spread: Bears -4
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has stayed at Bears -4, but the total has moved from 44.5 down to 43 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Chicago Bears to be used in 90 percent of entries. I will be in line with the field on this matchup, even though I’m surprised Chicago is being used in so many entries.
Survivor Pools: The Bears are an aggressive option this week.
Score Prediction: Bears 27, Arizona Cardinals 20
Broncos vs. Patriots
Spread: Broncos -7
Total: 34
The spread for this contest has moved from Broncos -6 to Broncos -7. The total has fluctuated between 34 and 34.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Denver Broncos to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. I will be in line with the field on this matchup.
Survivor Pools: There are no guarantees in survivor, but the Broncos are a strong option in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Broncos 16, New England Patriots 10
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Spread: Chiefs -10
Total: 41
The spread for this contest has stayed at Chiefs -10, but the total has moved from 43 down to 41 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. I’m going to use Kansas City in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have the Chiefs, they are a very strong option this week.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Las Vegas Raiders 13
Eagles vs. Giants
Spread: Eagles -11.5
Total: 43
The spread for this contest moved from Eagles -10.5 to Eagles -13.5. The total has fluctuated between 43 and 43.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. I will use Philadelphia in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: The Eagles, along with the Bills and Chiefs, are a very strong option this week.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, New York Giants 13
49ers vs. Ravens
Spread: 49ers -5.5
Total: 47
The spread for this contest has moved from 49ers -5 to 49ers -5.5. The total has moved from 45.5 to 47 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the San Francisco 49ers to be used in more than 80 percent of entries. I’ll be in line with the field in this matchup.
Survivor Pools: If you saved the 49ers this far into the season, you should hold them until next week in the vast majority of circumstances.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Baltimore Ravens 16
