Betting
12/9/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 Betting Preview: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Titans (4-8) at Dolphins (9-3)
Spread: Dolphins -13
Total: 46.5
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has stayed as Dolphins -13 all week. The total opened between 47 and 47.5 but has fallen between 46 and 46.5 points.
Dolphins Offense vs. Titans Defense
The Miami Dolphins score the second-most points per game (32), and Tua Tagovailoa throws for the third-most passing yards per game (288). The Tennessee Titans are 16th in points per game allowed (21.3) and allow the 11th most passing yards per game (230.8).
Tyreek Hill is having a historic season and is on pace to exceed 2,000 receiving yards. Hill leads the league in receiving yards (1,481), receiving touchdowns (12), target share (32.7 percent) and is second in receptions (93). Hill has at least 100 receiving yards in eight of his 12 games this season.
Jaylen Waddle, meanwhile, has only two games with 100 receiving yards this season. Hill’s massive year has hurt Waddle’s production. Waddle has 57 receptions for 743 receiving yards. Waddle’s 22.8 percent target share is 29th in the league. The Titans allow the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Tennessee also allows the 19th-most rushing yards and the 22nd-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Raheem Mostert is third in the league in rushing yards (828) and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (14). Mostert has reached 100 yards on the ground twice this year and has had at least 80 rushing yards six times.
Rookie De’Von Achane has at least 100 rushing yards in three of the four games in which he’s had more than two carries. In his return to action last week, he had 17 carries against the Washington Commanders. Expect both Miami runners to have a notable workload whenever both are healthy.
Titans Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
Will Levis had an encouraging NFL debut in late October with four touchdown passes against the Atlanta Falcons. Over his next five games, Levis has three total touchdowns. Levis has been held below 200 passing yards in three of his last four games.
Miami is 21st in points per game allowed (22.2) but has the ninth-best passing defense. Miami’s defense has been steadily improving, holding four of its last five opponents to 17 points or less. In the other game during that stretch, the Dolphins gave up 21 points in a loss to the Chiefs.
DeAndre Hopkins leads the Titans by a considerable margin in receptions (50), receiving yards (714), target share (28.2 percent) and receiving touchdowns (5). Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s 309 receiving yards are second among Titans’ wide receivers. Miami allows the 18th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is second on the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (313) and target share (16.1 percent). The Dolphins allow the 13th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Miami gives up the 22nd-most rushing yards and the 24th-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Derrick Henry is second in the league in rushing yards with 841, and he’s tied for fifth in touchdowns with eight. The ageless Big Dog has hit 100 rushing yards in three games this year, including last week.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on the Dolphins, they can win this game by distance in any phase. Tagovailoa can conceivably shred Tennessee’s secondary if Miami’s pass protection is stable. The Dolphins’ running back duo probably doesn’t carry this game, but they can certainly be a problem.
Lastly, Miami’s defense is playing their best football of the year. Betting on Tagovailoa and Hill to dismantle Tennessee is perfectly reasonable, but betting on Vic Fangio against Levis has a lot of upside.
If you’re betting on Tennessee, your best path to a close game is their pass rush consistently disrupting the timing of Miami’s offense. We saw this group derail a game against Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals early in the year, so it is possible.
Otherwise, you’re hoping Henry can make an impact early so this game doesn’t get out of hand. Aside from that, you’re likely banking on a back door cover if Tennessee’s defense doesn’t hold Miami below expectations.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 30, Titans 17
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 34-30
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 24-21
