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2023 NFL Week 14 Betting Preview: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) throws a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots during the 2022 season. Photo by: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots (2-10) at Steelers (7-5)

Spread: Steelers -6

Total: 30

Weather: No current concerns

The Line Report

The spread for this contest has stayed at Steelers -6 through Tuesday night. The total has dropped from 32 to an extraordinarily low 30 points.

Steelers Offense vs. Patriots Defense

The New England Patriots have allowed 26 total points over their last three games. The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored 36 over that same span.

Mitch Trubisky takes over for injured Kenny Pickett at quarterback. Trubisky has seen notable relief duty in two contests. Pittsburgh lost both games while scoring just 10 points in each.

Diontae Johnson’s 24.6 percent target share is ahead of George Pickens’ 22.3 percent mark. Pickens leads the Steelers in all major production categories, but Johnson has also missed four games. Johnson saw more volume than Pickens during Trubisky’s two appearances. The Patriots allow the 13th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.

Pat Freiermuth has 16 targets over his past two games but just 14 total targets during his five other games. The Patriots allow the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Since Week 9, Jaylen Warren leads the league in rushing while Najee Harris is fourth. The Patriots allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs. 

In the passing game, Warren has 48 targets to Harris’s 30. New England allows the 15th-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Bill Belichick is known for making opposing offenses play “left-handed.” Expect Belichick to center his game plan around stopping the Steelers running game. 

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) catches a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Washington Commanders earlier this season. Photo by: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots offense vs. Steelers defense

Bailey Zappe took over at quarterback last week for Mac Jones. The result was a 6-0 loss to the Chargers.

All of New England’s starting wide receivers were listed as questionable. Demario Douglass was a non-participant in practice on Tuesday and is trending toward missing this contest.

Regardless of who suits up for New England, it’s Week 14 and no Patriots wide receiver has reached 500 receiving yards. Douglas leads the team with 410 while Kendrick Bourne, who is on injured reserve, has 406. The Steelers give up the 10th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Hunter Henry is third on the team in receiving yards (313) while fellow TE Mike Gesicki is fifth (182). Henry has at least three targets in all but one game while Gesicki’s role is more volatile. Given the Patriots’ injuries at wide receiver, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Henry and Gesicki saw some role expansion in this matchup. Pittsburgh allows the 16th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Rhamondre Stevenson will likely miss this contest, which will make Ezekiel Elliott New England’s lead ball carrier. Elliott saw 17 carries and five targets last week despite Stevenson playing long enough to log nine carries and one target.

Ty Montgomery could see some more passing down work, and JaMycal Hasty could factor in a reserve role despite seeing no carries and two targets this season. The Steelers allow the ninth-most rushing yards but the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.

What You're Betting On

If you are betting on the Steelers you are primarily betting against New England’s offense. The Patriots’ passing attack has been non-existent for weeks. That’s why they are playing musical chairs at quarterback. Pittsburgh has a top-five defense and it can carry the Steelers to victory. In that scenario, you’re also betting on a clean game from Trubisky and for Pittsburgh’s running game to continue its recent success.

If you are betting on New England you are primarily betting on Belichick’s defense beating Trubisky. Even if the Patriots play a great game on defense as they’ve done the past three weeks, they need something out of their offense. Right now, regardless of who they start at quarterback, you simply can’t expect anything out of the Patriots’ offense.

Score Prediction: Steelers 13, Patriots 6

Ryan's Recent Betting Record

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

ATS 2023: 34-30

Props 2022: 60-40

Props 2023: 24-21