Packers (6-6) at Giants (4-8)
Spread: Giants +6.5
Weather: Potential for wind and rain.
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Giants +6 and Giants +6.5. The total has dropped from 37 to 36.5 points.
Giants Offense vs. Packers Defense
The New York Giants are scoring the second-fewest points per game in the league (13.3). New York has scored more than 20 points in just two games this season. One of those came against Washington, with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Green Bay is allowing 20.3 points per game, good for ninth-best in the league.
Rookie Jalin Hyatt is coming off his first 100-yard game as a pro, but he had 26 receiving yards combined over his previous three games. Few wide receiver units have been less productive than New York. The Green Bay Packers give up the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
The Packers are allowing the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Darren Waller is trending towards missing another week, keeping Daniel Bellinger as the starter. Bellinger has between 34 and 43 receiving yards in three of his past four games.
Green Bay is giving up the eighth-most rushing yards and the 19th-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Saquon Barkley has run for 100 yards in just one of his nine games this season. He has, however, run for at least 80 in three of his last five games. Barkley’s receiving production has been mild this season, where he’s been held below 10 yards in four games.
Packers Offense vs. Giants Defense
Jordan Love has been streaky this season, opening the year hot before a mediocre six-game stretch. He’s been back on the upswing, throwing for eight touchdowns with no interceptions over his past three games. The Giants allow 24.3 points per game, the seventh-most in the league.
Christian Watson will likely miss this contest, which means Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs could see some role expansion. Reed has at least five targets in five of his last six games. Reed has over 80 receiving yards in two of those games, but he’s been held below 50 in the other four.
Doubs' biggest usage came early in the season, where he’s been behind Watson and Reed during Love’s recent hot streak. Doubs has less than 50 receiving yards in six of his last eight games.
Rookie Dontayvion Wicks could also see an increase in playing time in Watson’s absence. Wicks has at least four targets in each of his last five games. The Giants are giving up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
New York is allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Tucker Kraft had six targets last week, doubling his previous high of three targets in a single game.
After missing multiple games, Aaron Jones returned to practice this week. Jones has only played in seven games this season, and he’s made a minimal impact to this point. A.J. Dillon hasn’t been overly productive, either, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season.
Both Packers running backs have underachieved to this point in the year. The Giants are giving up the third-most rushing yards but the fourth-fewest receiving yards to running backs per game this season.
What You’re Betting On
If you are betting on the Giants, you build that bet around their defense holding Green Bay below expectations. You’re also banking on Barkley to spearhead at least a few scoring drives to keep this matchup close.
Otherwise, you need DeVito to carry a game against the Packers’ talented pass defense. New York is coming off their bye, so it will be well rested. Green Bay is also coming off two upset wins over their last two games against the Lions and Chiefs.
If you’re betting on the Packers, you can build that stance around three core components. The first is that Love stays hot against a beatable Giants’ secondary. Even if Love has more of an average performance, the Packers’ running game could surge against the Giants. The third, and perhaps biggest, perk of a bet on Green Bay is that their defense could win this game alone.
Score Prediction: Packers 20, Giants 14
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 34-30
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 24-21