NFL Analysis

11/30/23

8 min read

2023 NFL Week 13: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

SHARE:

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Email
• Copy permalink to clipboard https://www.the33rdteam.com/2023-nfl-week-13-biggest-matchups-mismatches/ Copied to clipboard

Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 13.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 13 MATCHUPS

Seahawks vs. Cowboys

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 14th, Cowboys fourth

As much flak as Thursday night games usually catch, this week should be one of the more entertaining ones of the season. One of the areas to highlight is the Seattle Seahawks’ receiving corps vs. the Dallas Cowboys’ pass coverage. 

Both units rank in the top three of Total Points per play and have big-time talent across the board. Viewers should look for a potential mismatch between the banged-up Seattle offensive line vs/ Dallas’ sixth-ranked pass rush.

Chargers vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Chargers 19th, Patriots 22nd

In a game between two teams (and coaches) desperate for a win, a mismatch comes by way of the signal callers. The Los Angeles Chargers will have a leg up on the New England Patriots with Justin Herbert and their 10th-ranked passing offense. 

Meanwhile, Bill Belichick has refused to name which quarterback will lead a Patriots offense that ranks dead last in passing Total Points per play. 

Whoever it is will have an opportunity to produce against the Chargers’ 31st-ranked pass coverage.

Lions vs. Saints

Fourth-down decisions: Lions seventh, Saints 23rd

The Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints have a marquee matchup through the air, at least on one side of the ball. 

Detroit ranks eighth in passing and 12th in receiving Total Points per play while the Saints’ pass coverage unit clocks in third. Everyone saw Jared Goff struggle under pressure on Thanksgiving last week. 

The Lions’ offensive line should fare by exploiting a mismatch against the Saints’ 21st-ranked pass rush. 

Falcons vs. Jets

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 16th, Jets 21st

This game has the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets rank near the bottom of the league in passing Total Points per play. 

While both sides sport respectable defenses, the Falcons have the upper hand as their third- and fourth-ranked run defense and pass coverage, respectively, should pose major problems for the Jets offense. 

New York’s offense ranks 26th in rushing and 32nd in receiving Total Points per play. They’ll struggle even more if they insist on making themselves one-dimensional by starting Tim Boyle at quarterback. 

Cardinals vs. Steelers

Fourth-down decisions: Cardinals third, Steelers 29th

This game has a lot of mismatches. They start with the Arizona Cardinals’ passing game and receiving unit that ranks in the bottom five of the league in Total Points per play. 

The Cardinals are also in the bottom two for run defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 11th-ranked rushing game should find ample space this week.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers

Fourth-down decisions: Panthers N/A, Bucs 28th

In a game between arguably the two worst teams from inarguably the league’s worst division, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold advantages across the board over the Carolina Panthers. 

The Panthers are a squad that can only be described as dysfunctional. Perhaps, purging of the offense’s top locker room voices will kickstart the offense, which ranks bottom-five in passing and last in rushing Total Points per play. 

Our money is on the Buccaneers exploiting a major mismatch and stifling Carolina’s offense with their seventh-ranked run defense. 

Colts vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Colts 31st, Titans fifth

On paper, the Tennessee Titans hold major advantages over the Indianapolis Colts in a few areas. The Titans rank first in rushing Total Points per play, the focal point of their offense, while the Colts are 27th in run defense. 

Conversely, the Colts’ run game comes in 21st and will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor against the Titans’ fourth-ranked run defense. The Colts will have their opportunities, especially if this becomes a passing affair.  

The Titans’ pass coverage unit ranks at the bottom of the league. 

Dolphins vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: Dolphins 13th, Commanders 18th

This game has all the makings of a lopsided matchup. The Miami Dolphins rank top 10 in all but one category while the Washington Commanders, well, do not. 

The Dolphins’ second-ranked pass rush unit has an opportunity to feast on the Commanders’ offensive line, which ranks bottom three. There is a glimmer of hope for Washington though, in the form of their sixth-ranked run game against a lackluster Miami run defense. 

Even given this advantage, this could be a rough watch for Commanders fans. 

Broncos vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Broncos 20th, Texans sixth

This Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans game should be interesting. Both teams come in on hot streaks, and there are few true mismatches on paper. 

One comes in the form of the Texans’ sixth-ranked pass offense and second-ranked receiving corps vs. the Broncos’ 23rd-ranked pass coverage unit.

Browns vs. Rams

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 12th, Rams 10th

The Los Angeles Rams’ offense got back on track last week with the return of RB Kyren Williams but will have its hands full against a dominant Cleveland Browns defense. 

The Browns’ defense sits atop the NFL in run defense and pass rush Total Points per play. Star Edge and potential DPOY Myles Garrett should be drooling over his matchup with Rams LT Alaric Jackson, who has been dinged for 25 blown blocks.

The Rams will hold the advantage at quarterback with Matthew Stafford over either rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson or the freshly-signed Joe Flacco. Still, the Browns’ defense could prove too much for the Rams, regardless of who is under center. 

49ers vs. Eagles

Fourth-down decisions: 49ers 8th, Eagles 1st

In this week’s most anticipated matchup between two premier contenders, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles come into this game fairly evenly matched.

A possible area of exploitation comes in the passing game for San Francisco. The 49ers rank fourth in passing and blocking Total Points per play, and their receiving unit tops the NFL. However, the Eagles’ defense comes in ranked 19th in pass coverage. 

Chiefs vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 27th, Packers 2nd

This game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers appears one-sided, but there are areas of weakness Green Bay could exploit. 

The Chiefs are led by Patrick Mahomes and their league-leading passing offense by Total Points. However, their offensive line ranks 24th and is especially weak at both tackle spots. 

LT Donovan Smith ranks first among all players in total blown blocks (36), and RT Jawaan Taylor cracks the top 10 with 29. Rashan Gary and the Packers’ pass rush unit are coming off a spectacular performance against the Lions last week. 

Bengals vs. Jaguars

Fourth-down decisions: Bengals 15th, Jaguars 24th

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals look evenly matched by Total Points.  

The Bengals just lost QB Joe Burrow for the season, so their outlook is even bleaker than their 5-6 record. This game could be close if the Bengals rally around Jake Browning.

It could also get ugly if the young backup does not receive significant help from his supporting cast.

This article was authored by Jeremy Percy.

---

Sports Info Solutions

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Instagram