Betting
11/25/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 12 Betting Preview For Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools, are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement and weekly notes on every game. I’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
Be sure to keep up to date on injuries with Ari Meirov’s Injury Report Tracker
Jaguars at Texans
Spread: Texans +1.5
Total: 47.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Houston Texans +1 to Texans +1.5. The total has moved from 47 up to 48.5 before moving back down to 47.5 late this week.
Winner Pools: Expect both teams to be deployed in nearly half of entries this week. I will be Jacksonville Jaguars heavy with my own entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 27, Texans 24
Steelers at Bengals
Spread: Bengals +1.5
Total: 35.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Cincinnati Bengals -1 to Bengals +1.5. The total has moved from 35 down to 34 before moving back up to 35.5 late in the week. I’ve taken the Steelers in tournaments and directly.
Winner Pools: Expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be used in roughly 65 percent of entries. One of my bigger stances of the week is that I will play the Steelers in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: Pittsburgh is an aggressive option that warrants consideration in survivor.
Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 9
Patriots at Giants
Spread: Giants +3
Total: 33.5
The spread for this contest has fluctuated from New York Giants +3 and Giants +3.5. The total for this matchup has moved down from 34 to 33.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Giants to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. Another big stance of mine this week is that I will use the New England Patriots in nearly all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: New England can’t be trusted, but it shouldn’t be completely ruled out as an aggressive option this week.
Score Prediction: Patriots 13, Giants 10
Panthers at Titans
Spread: Titans -3.5
Total: 36.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Tennessee Titans -4 to Titans -3.5. The total has moved down from 37 to 36.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Titans to be used in nearly 90 percent of entries. My ratio will be closer to Titans 75 percent, Panthers 25 percent.
Survivor Pools: Similar to New England, the Titans shouldn’t be ruled out as an aggressive option. That said, I’m going to avoid them and the Patriots this week.
Score Prediction: Titans 16, Carolina Panthers 13
Saints at Falcons
Spread: Falcons +1
Total: 41.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Atlanta Falcons +1 to Falcons +1.5. The total has moved from 41 to 41.5.
Winner Pools: Expect the New Orleans Saints to be used in roughly 65 percent of entries. This is a true coin flip game between two unreliable division rivals. The Falcons are an interesting leverage play in winner pools.
Survivor Pools: This game should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Saints 21, Falcons 20
Buccaneers at Colts
Spread: Colts -2.5
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Indianapolis Colts -1.5 to Colts -2.5. The total has moved from 42.5 to 44.5.
Winner Pools: Expect the Colts to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a reasonable leverage play, but I’ll be in line with the field on the Colts.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Colts 27, Buccaneers 23
Rams at Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals +2.5
Total: 45
The spread for this contest has moved from Arizona Cardinals +1 to Cardinals +2.5. The total has moved from 44.5 to 45 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Los Angeles Rams to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. I’ll be roughly even with both teams in the format. If I only had one entry, I would play the Cardinals as a leverage option.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 23
Browns at Broncos
Spread: Broncos -1.5
Total: 36
The spread for this contest has moved from Denver Broncos -1.5 to Broncos -2.5, before moving back down to Broncos -1.5 late this week. The total for this contest has fluctuated between 35 and 36.5 points throughout the week.
Winner Pools: Expect both teams to be deployed in nearly half of the entries. I will be slightly Broncos heavy, and they are who I’d take if I had just one entry.
Survivor Pools: This game should be avoided in survivor. However, if you’re in dire straits, I would take the Steelers and then the Broncos among the coin-flip-type options on this slate.
Score Prediction: Broncos 13, Cleveland Browns 10
Chiefs at Raiders
Spread: Raiders +8.5
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Las Vegas Raiders +10 to Raiders +8.5. The total has moved from 43.5 to 42.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in nearly all entries. I’m taking the Chiefs in all of my entries, especially coming off a loss.
Survivor Pools: I intend to use the Chiefs in my biggest remaining survivor entry.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 13
Bills at Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Total: 48.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 to Eagles -3. The total has risen from 47.5 to 48.5 points. I have taken the Buffalo Bills +3.5 in tournaments and directly.
Winner Pools: Expect the Eagles to be used in roughly 85 percent of entries. One of my biggest stances of the week in this format is that I will be very Bills heavy with my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Eagles 23
Sunday Night Football
Ravens at Chargers
Spread: Chargers +3.5
Total: 48
The spread for this contest has moved from Los Angeles Chargers +4 to Chargers +3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Baltimore Ravens to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. My ratio will be closer to Ravens 75 percent, Chargers 25 percent.
In situations where I’m in play for the top spot over the season I’m going to be conservative with the Ravens. In a few spots where I’m out of that race because I’ve been ultra-aggressive, I’ll take the Chargers in a few of those spots.
Survivor Pools: In pools where I still have the Ravens, I’m saving them.
Score Prediction: Ravens 26, Chargers 24
Monday Night Football
Bears at Vikings
Spread: Vikings -3.5
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has moved from Minnesota Vikings -3.5 to Vikings -3. The total has moved down from 45 to 43 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Vikings to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. I’m going to play the Chicago Bears in roughly half of my entries.
Survivor Pools: I will avoid this matchup in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 20
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