Analysis
4/24/23
13 min read
2023 NFL Draft QB Rankings: C.J. Stroud No. 1, Will Levis No. 7
The life of an NFL quarterback is the ultimate journey in all of sports. Each quarterback’s experience is different, yet what remains the same are the mental, physical, emotional, social, and even spiritual challenges each one faces.
Playing quarterback in the NFL is not simply a job but more of a calling; a stewardship to potentially leave the organization better than it was upon arrival. The job is like no other in that it takes the investment of an incredible amount of time, passion, perseverance, resilience, toughness, tenacity, humility, self-awareness and vulnerability.
The journey for the top seven quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft that I have studied – most of whom have undoubtedly dreamed of this moment for the entirety of their young lives – truly begins this week.
Over the past few months, I’ve spent time watching video of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Below I break down how I would rank them based solely on my video study.
There are many questions about these players that I do not have answers to that NFL organizations have uncovered during their scouting processes, such as character issues, functional intelligence, medical information and psychological testing profile. I have also not met with these individuals personally to see first-hand their arm talent, coachability and personality. This has all been done in the deep dive of vetting that each NFL team does in assessing each player’s character, talent, and personality.
I have watched at least three games of each of these seven players and developed a starting point and general sense for their ability on tape. I can say with confidence that I believe all seven will be drafted, and over time in their individual careers, each will have the opportunity to make an impact in the NFL. The ratings below are how my quarterback board would look after completing what would be an initial evaluation from an NFL coaching perspective:
Tier 1
1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
- Size: 6-3, 214
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 21
- Career stats: 25 starts, 8,123 passing yards, 85 Total TDs, 12 INTs, 69.3 completion percentage
- 2022 games watched: at Maryland, vs. Michigan, vs. Georgia
- Full C.J. Stroud evaluation
Watching C.J. Stroud play for Ohio State leaves anyone who loves the game and the quarterback position longing to watch more.
The first thing that stands out is his excellent accuracy on all types and depths of throws, which is complemented by high-end arm strength and an inherent ability to change speeds and trajectory on the ball.
While Stroud shows elite arm talent, his quiet mind and functional intelligence are what separates him from many others in this class. From his pre-snap mental processing to his pocket management to his innate spatial awareness, it’s clear he was born to play quarterback. There have been social media reports regarding his low score on the S2 processing test, but there was nothing on tape that validated that. I suppose time will tell, but I will I stand by my evaluation.
Although Stroud is a pocket passer first, he has an “it” factor to make plays outside the pocket and win in crunch time with his arm or legs. From a simple sample of three games, I believe he is truly a complete prospect.
Of all the quarterbacks I’ve watched in the 2023 class, Stroud is arguably the most ready to become an NFL starter immediately.
2. Bryce Young, Alabama
- Size: 5-10 1/8, 204
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 22
- Career stats: 27 starts, 8,356 passing yards, 80 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 65.8 completion percentage
- 2022 games watched: at LSU, at Tennessee, vs. Auburn, vs. Kansas State
- Full Bryce Young evaluation
Young has truly unique strengths and talents. He’s been lauded for his exemplary character, football intellect, leadership qualities, and overcoming his comparatively small stature throughout his elite football career at every level. The tape validates his talent with explosive plays, off-schedule quick decisions and some “it” factor moments throughout. But there are inconsistencies in his mechanics in the pocket. This can be cleaned up through work and coaching, which can potentially elevate his play even further.
If Young is taken within the top five picks as projected, he will be the smallest player ever selected that high, and he does not have the lower-half thickness of some of the other short quarterbacks who have thrived in the NFL. With that said, he is an anomaly as a one-of-a-kind player at the position in so many ways. His lack of height does not concern me because he has spent years finding throwing lanes against high-end SEC defensive talent. My biggest concern is his ability to avoid violent hits while in the pocket and on the move.
I also believe he can become more fundamentally sound and disciplined in the pocket, but his coaches will want to show the flexibility to let him play his game and use his unique style.
Despite a few correctable flaws in his game, Young’s playmaking ability, exceptionally quick release and more than sufficient NFL arm talent give him the foundational tools to be worthy of being the first or second quarterback chosen in the draft.
Based on the tape I watched, it is a toss-up between Stroud and Young. They are two exceptional talents, with the primary differentiator prior to the draft being Young’s small stature, which could make him more susceptible to injury. Both are future franchise quarterbacks.
Tier 2
3. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
- Size: 6-3 1/4, 217
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 25
- Career stats: 37 starts, 8,974 passing yards, 80 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 66.9 completion percentage, 2,079 rushing yards, 25 rushing TDs
- 2022 games watched: vs. Alabama, at Georgia, vs. Missouri, at South Carolina
- Full Hendon Hooker evaluation
Hooker’s advanced age and recent ACL tear will impact where teams are comfortable selecting him, but when you put on the tape, the 25-year-old has difference-making ability.
Hooker played in a Tennessee offense with limited concepts that relied on his excellent accuracy, timing and decision-making to function at a high level. He’s a true pocket passer who can win in crunch time with elite execution.
Hooker has a beautiful, repeatable over-the-top motion and has the flexibility in his ankles to open his left side and square his hips to the target. He is a natural passer with an explosive motion. The ball gets up and out quickly, and he follows through and finishes his throwing motion through his left side to promote high-level accuracy.
I have never evaluated a player who had such little production outside the pocket as Hooker did in the four games I studied, but he is a sufficient athlete and will be able to win from the pocket at the next level. Quarterbacks in the NFL must be able to make throws and extend plays outside the pocket, but of the games I watched, there was no evidence of this ability. A deeper dive into more tape will either validate my observation or throw it out of the window.
There appear to be a few holes in Hooker’s game, such as his ability to make plays off-script and his ability to consistently hit receivers on go routes. His age and recent injury may also limit his ceiling and ability to start right away. But I would love to coach a player with Hooker’s arm talent, decision-making, accuracy and mechanics.
4. Anthony Richardson, Florida
- Size: 6-4 1/4, 244
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 21
- Career stats: 13 starts, 3,105 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 15 INTs, 54.7 completion percentage, 1,243 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs
- 2022 games watched: vs. LSU, vs. Georgia, at Florida State
- Full Anthony Richardson evaluation
Richardson is the X-factor at the quarterback position in this year’s draft. He only had 13 starts with 24 touchdowns and an eye-opening 15 interceptions at Florida. The minimal experience, turnovers and lack of accuracy make him the most polarizing quarterbacks in this year’s draft even after coming off a historic NFL Combine performance that included a 4.43 40-yard dash, 40.5-inch vertical jump and 10-foot-9 broad jump.
Richardson has elite athleticism and arm talent to contend with the NFL’s best at the position, and he will remind teams of Josh Allen and Justin Fields as a prospect on tape. But he simply does not check all the boxes for a high first-round pick.
I believe if a team drafts Richardson high in the first round, they are expecting him to start immediately and will live with the growing pains he will undoubtedly have in his first – and possibly second – season.
The key question I have of Richardson is whether he can become an accurate passer over the first three years of his career like Allen or Jalen Hurts were able to do.
The team that drafts Richardson must either have the patience to allow him to develop as a rookie starter or a decorated veteran he can sit behind for a year while learning the NFL game and his new offense. Even if he does not start in Year 1, the team selecting him could find creative ways to get him on the field and use his explosive talents to move the football.
He is a classic boom-or-bust prospect who, at age 21, will have the football community on the edge of their seats to see who rolls the dice on a tremendously talented prospect.
Tier 3
5. Jake Haener, Fresno State
- Size: 5-11 5/8, 207
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 24
- Career stats: 29 starts, 9,142 passing yards, 68 passing TDs, 18 INTs, 68 completion percentage
- 2022 games watched: vs. Oregon State, at USC, at Boise State
- Full Jake Haener evaluation
There have only been a handful of quarterbacks in NFL history who have had high-end success without the ideal physical stature or arm talent, but Haener’s maturity and natural football acumen will give NFL coaches plenty to work with.
I am not anointing Haener to be the next Drew Brees, but that said, there are some similarities in Haener’s game to the Hall of Famer in terms of his size, demeanor in the pocket, fundamentals and throwing motion. The Fresno State product also has shown the elite accuracy, decision-making, nimble feet and “it” factor to win at the NFL level.
While his game is partially predicated on first-class fundamentals, the subtle playmaking ability and great ball placement make him a very fun watch.
Of all the quarterbacks in the draft, I am most excited to see who drafts this young man. He would thrive in conventional NFL-style offense in shotgun with options under center. He can play in the drop-back or play-action game and can make mindful and crunch-time decisions by extending plays with his arm or legs in and out of the pocket.
In my career, I have seen several quarterbacks with less talent than Haener get drafted in the second round. Don’t be surprised if he goes this early. When he goes will not be as important as where and with what coach.
I believe Haener has the tools to be 2023’s Brock Purdy if he gets his opportunity early enough. He’s as pro-ready as any quarterback in or outside the top tier.
6. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
- Size: 6-1 5/8, 203
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 23
- Career stats: 49 starts, 10,710 passing yards, 88 passing TDs, 36 INTs, 63.3 completion percentage
- 2022 games watched: at California, at Arizona State, vs. USC, vs. Pittsburgh
- Full Dorian Thompson-Robinson evaluation
Thompson-Robinson is the most experienced of all these quarterbacks after playing five years in Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense. In that time, he grew from an exciting-but-raw dual-threat passer to a well-rounded quarterback with an explosive and accurate arm, good functional intelligence, and ability to work through full-field progressions.
Thompson-Robinson is very much a pass-first quarterback, but his high-level rushing ability complements his passing skills well. Though he doesn’t appear to be on the level athletically of Lamar Jackson, Fields or Richardson, he will immediately be one of the more athletic quarterbacks in the NFL once drafted.
He does not have a strong frame and is more turnover prone than the other quarterbacks I’ve studied in this class — evidenced by 12 turnovers in his final five collegiate games — which is why he is rated lower than others here. But in spite of that, he has a load of ability.
7. Will Levis, Kentucky
- Size: 6-3 7/8, 229
- Age at start of 2023 NFL season: 24
- Career stats: 24 starts, 5,877 passing yards, 46 total TDs, 25 INTs, 64.9 percent completion
- 2022 games watched: vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, vs. Louisville, vs. Mississippi State
- Full Will Levis evaluation
My video study of Levis made for a roller-coaster evaluation. He showed flashes of excellence in several areas, but major room for growth elsewhere.
With an excellent stature, a quick release and high-end arm talent, he has the characteristics of an NFL starter. However, his accuracy can be erratic on a play-to-play basis, and he made more poor decisions on tape than the quarterbacks listed above him.
He’s courageous in the pocket and has flashes as a rushing threat, but I didn’t see sudden, quick-twitch feet to maneuver the pocket at a high level, and his pocket presence left something to be desired.
Levis has admitted to playing through injuries for the bulk of the 2022 season, and from my vantage point, it’s impossible to know how much that impacted his game. Nevertheless, it’s hard to project Levis given the high-variance nature of the games I watched of him.
These exceptional seven young men are all very talented and draft-worthy. As their football journeys continue this week, I would encourage them not to compare their draft positions with each other. The most important thing is not when they are drafted, but where.
Marc Trestman is a former NFL, CFL and college coach. After over a decade as an offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in the NFL, he coached in four Grey Cups in the CFL, winning three over seven years with Montreal and Toronto before becoming head coach of the Chicago Bears. Follow him on Twitter at @CoachTrestman.
