NFL Analysis
10/4/24
6 min read
Did Kirk Cousins, Falcons Offense Find the Secret to Sustained Success?
The Atlanta Falcons are back. Maybe.
After a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which the Falcons only scored 10 points while Kirk Cousins looked labored and immobile, it looked as if this could be a long season for the Atlanta offense — or that we’d see rookie Michael Penix earlier than expected.
Cousins took one snap under center in the season opener and had zero snaps of play-action. Those are the Kirk Cousins things. He accomplished what he did in his career because of his mastery of under-center play-action. It was fair to be skeptical of what a limited Cousins could bring to the Atlanta offense.
During the following weeks, the offense looked a little more traditional. The biggest pivot was in Week 2 when Cousins was under center for half of his snaps while he helped lead a comeback win against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, that under-center rate fell back down, with rates of 35.7 percent and 27.5 percent in Weeks 3 and 4, according to TruMedia.
Through Week 4, the Falcons were still figuring out what they were on offense. Atlanta ranked 19th in EPA per drive and 20th in points per drive. The Falcons were 15th in success rate but 10th in yards per play.
Then Week 5 happened — a 36-30 overtime win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Cousins throwing for 509 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 0.32 EPA per play, his highest of the season so far.
This game should not suggest that Atlanta’s passing game is instantly fixed, but let’s examine some of the reasons the Falcons clicked during this matchup and what might be useful going forward.
Offensive Pace
During the first three quarters of the game, the Falcons used a season-high 18.5 percent no-huddle rate. The Falcons were 21st in seconds per play in the first three quarters through Week 4 but were the equivalent of the second-fastest team (29 seconds) in Week 5.
By getting to the line early, the Falcons forced the Buccaneers to stay in their personnel and limit the amount of exotic looks that could be used before the snap.
The Falcons doubled down on that, with Cousins having his quickest average time to throw of the season at 2.41 seconds. He had 56.9 percent of his dropbacks finish within 2.5 seconds of the snap, second to Week 3, but his average depth of target in that game was only 5.6 yards, while it was 7.3 in Week 5.
Atlanta went back to a pistol-heavy offense without running much play-action. This, along with the pacing strategy, helped Cousins play with shotgun concepts in the passing game but allowed the running game to still operate like it would under center.
The running game still needs work (on those pistol runs, the Falcons had a 35.3 percent success rate), but the Falcons maintained a pass-heavy strategy (73.4 percent early-down pass rate) thanks to the pace and keeping the Buccaneers' defense off guard.
Drake London, Slot Receiver
London had his best game of the season and did most of his damage in the slot. Of his 13 targets, 12 receptions, and 154 receiving yards, nine targets, eight receptions, and 117 yards came from the slot.
Only 39 percent of London’s routes came from the slot — just around his season average of 24 percent — but when he was there, the Falcons planned to get him the ball.
The Falcons also had a plan for getting London into the slot. There were a number of plays when London lined up in a tight split, but as the outside receiver before, another player motioned out wide and made London the slot receiver right before the snap.
Against a Tampa Bay defense that played almost exclusively zone coverage, that forced a late change in the coverage responsibilities and got London against a linebacker a few times.
At his size, London could play as an effective power slot, matched up against smaller slot corners and slower linebackers. He’s averaging 3.42 yards per route run in the slot this season, including the 6.16 from Week 5, compared to 1.26 out wide.
Having London in the slot also opens up more in the offense for the other receivers. Darnell Mooney has turned into an effective enough deep threat to stretch the field to get London space underneath, and if the defense is focused on London, those 1-on-1 deep shots become available.
Aggressive middle-of-the-field throws
Cousins has thrived on throws to the middle of the field throughout his career, but without the use of play-action, the Falcons have to be a bit more creative to open up those throwing lanes.
There were a few ways they did that against Tampa Bay.
Another way was to let Cousins rip some throws down the seam., like the opening play to Kyle Pitts, which helped set that tone with a 32-yard gain. According to Next Gen Stats, Cousins was 27-of-33 for 385 yards and three touchdowns on throws between the numbers.
Cousins has also been willing to hang in the pocket when necessary. According to FTN, Cousins had the highest rate of throws beyond his first read through Week 4. Even while getting the ball out quickly against Tampa Bay, he still took 10 hits — a 16.7 percent rate. With defenders in his face, Cousins is willing to stand in the pocket and make a throw. Those are often in the middle of the field.
The Atlanta offense is still a work in progress, but it continues to find what works for a quarterback who still can’t move all that well — 98.3 percent of Cousins' dropbacks were in the pocket against Tampa Bay — and hasn’t relied on the under center play-action that has made this type of McVay-brach offense go.
It’s not always going to look like this, but it’s a good sign the offense is figuring out how to problem-solve on a weekly basis.
The Falcons have a fairly easy upcoming schedule, so it will be worth watching how this offense develops and if some of the expected elements are added in if Cousins feels more comfortable, or if this will be a full-season pivot to the type of offense we’ve seen to date.
