DFS

Week 16 Main Slate Tournament Advice

Week 16 DFS Main Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below! https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/ 

Double Stacks

Patrick Mahomes and Allen are the only two quarterbacks whom I do not care about the weather. Allen has two 300 plus yard passing days in 20 plus mph wind and this game is no different for him. There’s also the fact that Allen is a capable runner and can add a lot of rushing points. The Bears are one of the worst secondaries in the NFL and both Diggs and Davis can pay off the price. The Eagles and Dolphins were able to have two wide receivers have successful days and pay off their prices.  

The Bears will run the ball plenty in this game and at the price, Herbert is the most appealing. The Bills have not been a strong run defense as of late and it’s been from the long carries. The concern for running it back with Herbert is that the Bears are missing starting offensive linemen and it’s a three-headed monster with Justin Fields and David Montgomery. I like Herbert because you are flipping the build from the people who went cheap at quarterback and paid up for Derrick Henry.

Seven quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards against the Lions and the list includes Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, and Zach Wilson. It comes down to pressure for Darnold because this season when he isn’t pressured, he averages 10.6 yards per attempt. Our Trenches Tool gives the Panthers a +22 matchup in pass blocking. The Lions have also been targeted over 10+ air yards at the highest rate in the NFL, and Darnold has had 18.2% of his throws go over 20 air yards.

The Lions’ weakness has been the slot this season, giving up the most yards per attempt to that alignment. Since Darnold has become the starter, DJ Moore has had 68% of his routes come from the slot position and will be heavily utilized. The Lions’ other struggle has come from in-line tight ends, and that is where Tremble has been utilized. The Lions have given up eight receiving touchdowns to that position, the third most yards per attempt, and an 82.5% completion rate. The Panthers have other cheap weapons, such as Terrace Marshall, that are players to consider for your lineups, but Tremble will be my punt tight end play this weekend. 

Running it back with the Lions has been difficult to predict, but with the usage of Jaycee Horn in the slot, I expect Amon-Ra St. Brown not to pay off his salary, and I will lean towards Chark for the big play. In the Steelers game last weekend, the Panthers lost CJ Henderson early on, and they were able to take advantage of the replacement corners. This weekend, Henderson returns, but he has given up plenty of big plays this season. Jameson Williams is not running enough routes to be trustworthy, and they can spread the ball around with Josh Reynolds and Kaliff Raymond. The Lions are also still utilizing a committee at running back that has been a nightmare to figure out. 

Single Stacks

Jones averages seven rushing attempts a game, with half of these being designed runs, and the Vikings have allowed four running quarterbacks over 30 yards rushing this year. Near the goal line, I expect Jones to utilize his legs on QB Powers, similar to Jalen Hurts’ success against the Vikings. The Vikings also are one of the worst pass defenses in football, and they’ve been beaten outside. The Vikings allow 9.1 yards per attempt to out wide receivers, Slayton has most of his production out wide, and against the primary coverages, while out wide, Slayton is 4th in the NFL in yards per route.

Dalvin Cook is in a smash matchup because the Giants give up 5.4 yards per carry to running backs, and the Vikings will want to lean on him in this matchup. The Giants’ defensive line is a great pass-rushing group, and Kirk Cousins has been hit way too often this year. Cook has been a workhorse running back as of late and had over 90 yards rushing and receiving this past weekend.

Mini-Stacks

CIN @ NE

WR Ja’Marr Chase and WR Jakobi Meyers

The Patriots give plenty of Cover 1 looks when losing, and against Cover 1, Chase is one of the most lethal wide receivers in the NFL.  Against Cover 1, Chase averages 3.87 yards per route and has a 38.7% target share. 

Meyers is the go-to against the Bengals’ primary coverages, and the Bengals get beat in the slot, not out wide. Meyers has a 34.4% target share and 3.25 yards per route against Cover 3. Meyers will look to make up for his big mistake in last weekend’s game and keep the Patriots’ playoff hopes alive.

PHI @ DAL

RB Miles Sanders and WR CeeDee Lamb

The Cowboys need help at the CB2 position, and with how bad the play has been on that side of the ball, I expect them to stick to two high coverage against the Eagles. If Gardner Minshew starts throwing the ball well, they will not have an answer to stop the Eagles’ offense.

Whoever Trevon Diggs is not covering will be the primary target, and if it’s one-on-one will be a mismatch. Against the Cowboys, three running backs have had over 100 yards rushing, and Travis Etienne just did it last weekend. With no Jalen Hurts, Sanders will have all the goal-line work. CeeDee Lamb showed he can win against James Bradberry on film, and I expect Dak Prescott to look for that matchup. Lamb averages 2.89 yards per route and a 31.9% target share against the Eagles’ primary coverage. 

SEA @ KC

WR D.K. Metcalf and TE Travis Kelce

The Seahawks lost Tyler Lockett this past week to a broken hand and will need Metcalf to dominate this matchup against the Chiefs. Against Cover 1, Metcalf has a 35.3% target share and gets targeted on 36.1% of his routes. Those are numbers with Lockett in the lineup and amongst the highest rates in the NFL. Six players have had multiple touchdowns against the Chiefs this season, and Metcalf could be the next.

The Seahawks can’t defend running backs and tight ends. Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and T.J. Hockenson had over 80 receiving yards against the Seahawks this year. Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL, and the Seahawks can’t keep up with him. You can get up to him at the tight end position by going cheap at quarterback.

One-Offs

RB J.K. Dobbins

The Atlanta Falcons are at a disadvantage against this Ravens rushing attack, and the Ravens have not had any success throwing the ball with Tyler Huntley. Dobbins is an easy play at his price and the usage he has been receiving. He may not look like the same running back pre-injury, but his offensive line will open up gaps for him to run through.

RB Derrick Henry

Henry has four straight games of over 200 yards rushing against the Texans. He will be very popular because of the matchup, and you do not need to get unique by playing Darnold. The Texans have been beaten by multiple running backs this year, and it will not stop here.

Defenses

Ravens

Desmond Ridder’s first game did not go well against the Saints. Now he has to travel to Baltimore in a matchup that they have implied 14.75 points. The Ravens stop the run amongst the best in football; that is the only way the Falcons can move the ball. 

Saints

The Saints will take Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara and run the ball against the Browns. They have a +11 grade against the Browns, and the total in this game is 34.5. This will be a popular defense, and rightfully so with their weather conditions. 

Commanders

Chase Young is back for this defense, and I expect this to be the first game where Brock Purdy cannot get it done. The 49ers have locked up the division, and it’ll be difficult to get the first-round bye, and unlikely they will fall past the three seed. The Commanders can get pressure at a high rate, which is the best defense Purdy has faced.

Eagles

The Eagles are too cheap this weekend because the Cowboys have turned the ball over in seven of eight games with Dak Prescott as the starter. The Eagles added depth to their interior DL and have been able to stop the run better. They have also forced a turnover in 13 games this year, with three coming against the Cowboys. 

Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Josh Allen QB BUF @ CHI $8,500 $9,500 24.25
Daniel Jones QB NYG @ MIN $5,600 $7,400 22.25
Sam Darnold QB CAR vs DET $5,100 $6,700 20.75
Christian McCaffrey RB SF vs WAS $8,800 $9,400 22.25
Derrick Henry RB TEN vs HOU $8,600 $9,800 19.25
Saquon Barkley RB NYG @ MIN $7,900 $8,500 22.25
Dalvin Cook RB MIN vs NYG $7,200 $8,700 25.25
Alvin Kamara RB NO @ CLE $6,800 $7,400 15.25
Kenneth Walker III RB SEA @ KC $6,400 $6,900 19.25
Miles Sanders RB PHI @ DAL $6,200 $7,100 21.25
Jerick McKinnon RB KC vs SEA $5,900 $7,300 29.25
J.K. Dobbins RB BAL vs ATL $5,800 $7,000 20.75
Isiah Pacheco RB KC vs SEA $5,700 $6,700 29.25
D’Andre Swift RB DET @ CAR $5,500 $6,800 22.75
Justin Jefferson WR MIN vs NYG $9,300 $9,300 25.25
Stefon Diggs WR BUF @ CHI $8,500 $8,700 24.25
JaMarr Chase WR CIN @ NE $8,300 $8,800 22.25
A.J. Brown WR PHI @ DAL $8,100 $8,500 21.25
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET @ CAR $7,800 $8,400 22.75
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL vs PHI $7,500 $8,300 26.25
DK Metcalf WR SEA @ KC $7,100 $8,000 19.25
Tee Higgins WR CIN @ NE $7,000 $7,700 22.25
DeVonta Smith WR PHI @ DAL $6,600 $7,600 21.25
Brandon Aiyuk WR SF vs WAS $6,300 $6,800 22.25
Terry McLaurin WR WAS @ SF $6,200 $7,000 15.25
DJ Moore WR CAR vs DET $5,500 $7,100 20.75
Adam Thielen WR MIN vs NYG $5,300 $6,600 25.25
Darius Slayton WR NYG @ MIN $5,200 $6,300 22.25
Gabriel Davis WR BUF @ CHI $5,000 $6,400 24.25
Jakobi Meyers WR NE vs CIN $4,800 $6,200 19.25
K.J. Osborn WR MIN vs NYG $4,500 $6,100 25.25
Curtis Samuel WR WAS @ SF $4,400 $5,700 15.25
Marquise Goodwin WR SEA @ KC $4,300 $5,800 19.25
D.J. Chark WR DET @ CAR $4,200 $5,700 22.75
Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG @ MIN $4,100 $5,800 22.25
Richie James WR NYG @ MIN $3,900 $5,200 22.25
Jahan Dotson WR WAS @ SF $3,900 $5,300 15.25
Josh Reynolds WR DET @ CAR $3,800 $5,500 22.75
Jameson Williams WR DET @ CAR $3,700 $5,000 22.75
Terrace Marshall Jr. WR CAR vs DET $3,600 $5,600 20.75
Shi Smith WR CAR vs DET $3,000 $5,000 20.75
Travis Kelce TE KC vs SEA $8,000 $8,600 29.25
Mark Andrews TE BAL vs ATL $5,500 $6,400 20.75
George Kittle TE SF vs WAS $5,300 $7,000 22.25
T.J. Hockenson TE MIN vs NYG $4,900 $6,000 25.25
Dalton Schultz TE DAL vs PHI $4,200 $6,100 26.25
Dawson Knox TE BUF @ CHI $4,100 $5,700 24.25
Noah Fant TE SEA @ KC $3,400 $5,300 19.25
Daniel Bellinger TE NYG @ MIN $3,300 $4,700 22.25
Tommy Tremble TE CAR vs DET $2,500 $4,600 20.75
Ravens DST BAL vs ATL $3,200 $4,900 14.75
Saints DST NO @ CLE $2,800 $3,800 17.25
Commanders DST WAS @ SF $2,400 $3,700 22.25
Eagles DST PHI @ DAL $2,200 $4,400 26.25
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