An in-depth betting breakdown of the NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday:
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Spread: Eagles -2.5
Opening Game Total: 45.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (24), 49ers (21.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -2.5
- This line remains at Eagles -2.5
- This total opened at 45.5 points
- This total remains at 45.5 points
Notable Injuries
Eagles: Questionable: RT Lane Johnson, CB Avonte Maddox
49ers: Doubtful: QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Questionable: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Elijah Mitchell, WR Deebo Samuel
Eagles Offense vs. 49ers Defense
At full strength, the Eagles are a top-five offensive line. Right tackle Lane Johnson didn’t look 100% against the Giants last week, but he held up well against a talented front. The 49ers’ defensive front is a top-five-level group. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup between two of the very best lines in the league. Neither side has a notable advantage.
Regular Season Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 8-9 against the spread this season
- The Eagles are 10-7 on overs this season
- Jalen Hurts is 17-16-1 against the spread in his career
- Jalen Hurts is 20-14 on overs in his career
- Nick Sirianni is 16-17-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Nick Sirianni is 20-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Eagles Offense (Regular Season)
- The Eagles scored 28.1 points per game, good for third in the league
- Philadelphia is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing
- The Eagles are passing on 56% of their plays and running on 44% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing (760) and second among all runners in rushing touchdowns (13) despite missing two games
- Miles Sanders is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 1,269, and eighth in rushing touchdowns with 11
- A.J. Brown is 12th in the league in receptions (88), fourth in yards receiving (1,496), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (11), eighth in target share (28.7%), and seventh in air yards share (39.4%)
- DeVonta Smith is 10th in the league in receptions (95), ninth in yards receiving (1,196), tied for 15th in receiving touchdowns (7), and 15th in target share (26.9%), with a 30.2% air yards share
- Despite missing five games, Dallas Goedert was 12th among tight ends in receptions (55), seventh in yards receiving (702), 19th in touchdowns (3), seventh in target share (19.4%), and 13th in air yards share (15%)
- Per TruMedia, A.J. Brown has played 647 snaps on the perimeter and 287 in the slot
- Brown is sixth in the league in yards after the catch, and he’s third among non-running backs
- DeVonta Smith has played 789 snaps on the perimeter and 222 in the slot
- Dallas Goedert has played 412 snaps as an in-line tight end, 63 on the perimeter, and 195 in the slot
49ers Defense (Regular Season)
- The 49ers have allowed 16.3 points per game, which is the best in the league
- San Francisco is ninth in the league in sacks, sixth in forced fumbles, and the leader in interceptions
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 17th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- San Francisco has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- San Francisco has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth-most to those in the slot
- The 49ers have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
49ers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
San Francisco has a top-ten-caliber offensive line. The Eagles have a top-five defensive front with some of the best depth in recent memory. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a major macro advantage. That said, the Eagles’ defensive interior will be a tough test for San Francisco.
Regular Season Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 11-6 against the spread this season
- The 49ers are 9-8 on overs this season
- Brock Purdy is 4-1 against the spread in his career
- Brock Purdy is 4-1 on overs in his career
- Kyle Shanahan is 50-47-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Kyle Shanahan is 50-46-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
49ers Offense (Regular Season)
- The 49ers scored 26.5 points per game, good for sixth in the league
- San Francisco is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing
- The 49ers are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- The 49ers are now 7-0 under Brock Purdy, which doesn’t include San Francisco’s win against Miami when Purdy came on for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo
- Including that game against Miami, Purdy’s offense has breached 30 points in six of eight games
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey finished the year eighth in the league in yards rushing with 1,139, and as the leader in yards receiving among running backs with 748
- Since Brock Purdy took over against the Dolphins in Week 13, Deebo Samuel has 12 receptions for 121 yards receiving with a 22% target share and a 14.4% air yards share
- Samuel caught six of nine targets for 133 yards receiving and a score while adding 32 yards on the ground against Seattle last week
- Since Brock Purdy took over against the Dolphins in Week 13, Brandon Aiyuk has 27 receptions for 363 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 24.7% target share and a 39.6% air yards share
- Since Brock Purdy took over against the Dolphins in Week 13, Jauan Jennings has 11 receptions for 147 yards receiving with an 11.7% target share and a 16.5% air yards share
- Since Brock Purdy took over against the Dolphins in Week 13, George Kittle has 24 receptions for 315 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 21.6% target share and a 25.2% air yards share
- Per TruMedia, Deebo Samuel has played 393 snaps on the perimeter and 138 in the slot
- Brandon Aiyuk has played 774 snaps on the perimeter and 166 in the slot
- Jauan Jennings has played 247 snaps on the perimeter and 218 in the slot
- George Kittle has played the third-most snaps as an in-line tight end with 570, with 78 more on the perimeter and 177 in the slot
Eagles Defense (Regular Season)
- The Eagles allowed 20.2 points per game, which is eighth in the league
- Philadelphia led the league in sacks, were seventh in forced fumbles, and fourth in interceptions
- Per The Edge, the Eagles allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Philadelphia gave up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Eagles allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
This is a matchup between the two top seeds in the conference and the two most talented rosters in the league. You could argue that the 49ers are the only team in the league with a better roster than the Eagles. I would give the Eagles the overall edge, but it’s a real conversation. This will be the first matchup between these two teams.
If You’re Betting on the Eagles
When Jalen Hurts plays at an MVP-caliber level, the Eagles are nearly impossible to beat. The only concerns you had as a Philly bettor last week were the status of Hurts’ throwing shoulder and that the Eagles played their worst football down the stretch. Both of those concerns were erased last week against the Giants. So if you are betting on the Eagles, you are building that bet around their absolutely loaded roster and that Hurts is at least a borderline elite quarterback.
A bet on the Eagles can also be a direct bet against Brock Purdy. The 49ers couldn’t have realistically expected more out of Purdy than he’s given to this point, but he’ll face the most difficult opponent of his career for the second week in a row. We saw Dallas hold the 49ers to 19 points last week. The Eagles’ defense can match, if not exceed, that type of defensive performance.
You have two core concerns as an Eagles bettor in this matchup. The first is that Jalen Hurts’ offense is squaring off against the best defense in the league. The Eagles have some advantageous matchups with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but the 49ers have only given up 20 or more points in five of their 19 games this season. The second is that San Francisco continues to have a successful but low-risk offense that limits turnovers. If Hurts has a mediocre performance while the Brock Purdy 49ers continue to play clean games on offense, that’s the clearest path to an Eagles loss.
If You’re Betting on the 49ers
Just like last week, the result of this game is mainly dependent on how well Brock Purdy plays. Purdy is not a dynamic quarterback talent, and he’s had luck on his side on a few interceptable passes during his run. But overall the 49ers get the most out of their dynamic skill group, and this offense has been very effective since Purdy took over. If you’re betting on the 49ers, you’re betting on that continuing.
The 49ers’ defensive front, both their line and linebacker group, have given them a considerable advantage in virtually every game they’ve had this season. The Eagles have a premium offensive line, a good running game, and one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the league. Of all the opponents the 49ers have faced this season, the Eagles are their toughest draw in these areas.
You have two core concerns as a 49ers’ bettor. The first is that Brock Purdy has his most uneven performance of the season against a high-end defense. That was your primary concern as a 49ers’ bettor last week. Your second-biggest concern is that the 49ers’ secondary has struggled against both perimeter and slot receivers this season. They draw one of the better duos in the league in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this week. If Purdy struggles while the Eagles have significant success through the air, that combination is how a 49ers teaser leg can lose this week.
Score Prediction: Eagles 20, 49ers 16
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
TS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 60-43
