Analysis

Five Fantasy Football Takeaways: NFL Week 3

Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning from here on out, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from TruMedia.com. Enjoy!

Chicago Bears Running Back Khalil Herbert Explodes For Big Day 

  • Herbert, the Bears’ backup running back, finished with 169 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns
  • Starting running back David Montgomery suffered a lower leg injury roughly five minutes into Chicago’s Week 3 game against the Houston Texans. 
  • Coach Matt Eberflus said Montgomery is “day to day” following the game, Aaron Leming reported
  • Trading Montgomery away is advised, if possible. Lower leg injuries often severely reduce a player’s ability to perform for the remainder of the season. 
Chicago Bears RB Carries-Yards-TDs-Fumbles Routes Run (Routes Run per Dropback)-Targets-Receptions Snaps Inside Opponent’s 10-Yard Line Snaps on 3rd Down & 3+ Yards To-Go (Snap %)
Khalil Herbert 20-157-2-0 14 (100%) -2-2 3 (100%) 8 (66.7%)
Trestan Ebner 7-23-0-0 6 (85.7%)-1-0 0 (0.0%) 2 (16.7%)
  • Herbert efficiently ran for 7.85 yards per carry and 6.60 yards after contact per carry, playing in relief of Montgomery. Both marks are far more efficient than the 4.63 yards per carry and 3.56 yards after contact per carry Montgomery was averaging. 
  • Herbert faced little passing game competition from pass-catching specialist Trestan Ebner. Herbert was also the clear-cut goal-line back. 
  • Herbert will be a top-24 fantasy football running back against the New York Giants next week. 
  • Per The 33rd Team’s free interactive data tool, The Edge, New York is allowing the 13th-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs through Weeks 1 and 2. 
  • New York’s 5.0 yards per carry allowed ranks ninth in the NFL, and their 12.9 yards per running back reception allowed leads the NFL.

WATCH MORE: Mike Martz Talks About Chicago’s Surprising 2-1 Start

 

Romeo Doubs Finally Breaks Out

  • As discussed in the Five Fantasy Takeaways from NFL Week 1, Packers rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs was the best bet to fill Green Bay’s vacant No. 1 wide receiver role. He earned a target on 20.8% of his Week 1 routes, the highest such mark among all Packers wide receivers. 
  • Green Bay entered Week 3 without veteran Sammy Watkins (Injured Reserve, hamstring) and rookie Christian Watson (hamstring), leaving Doubs and veteran Allen Lazard to duke it out for the top spot.
Green Bay Wide Receivers – Week 3 Receptions/Targets-Yards-TD Routes Run-Targets per Route Run Yards per Route Run Routes Run from Slot – Perimeter
Romeo Doubs 8/8-73-1 34 – 23.5% 2.15 6 – 28
Allen Lazard 4/6-45-1 32 – 18.8% 1.41 15 – 16
  • Doubs handily out-targeted Lazard and produced an exceptional 2.15 yards per route run. 
  • Doubs is one of just six rookie wide receivers to have earned 10 or more targets this year. His season-high 22.5% targets per route run rate and 1.93 yards per route run rate both rank sixth among qualifying rookies. 
  • Lazard has done a good job of converting in scoring position, securing both of his green zone targets for touchdowns during the last two weeks. 
  • Fortunately for all involved, Doubs and Lazard succeeded in complementary manners. Doubs’ 3.13 air yards per target reflect his short-area and run-after-catch prowess. On the year, Doubs’ 6.00 yards after the catch per reception ranks second among all NFL rookie wide receivers with at least 10 targets. 
  • Lazard, meanwhile, was used in a downfield capacity, as evidenced by his 15.33 air yards per target. Doubs ran the vast majority of his routes when lined up on the perimeter. Lazard’s 15-slot routes led the team across all positions. 
  • Doubs should push for the team lead in targets on a weekly basis moving forward.

WATCH MORE: Tank Williams Breaks Down How the Packers Offense Beat the Buccaneers

 

Atlanta Falcons Rookie Drake London Has a Fantasy WR1 profile

  • Not accounting for Sunday Night’s and Monday Night’s games, Atlanta Falcons rookie wide receiver Drake London is the fantasy football WR14 in PPR scoring formats. While that is an impressive start to a career, he is due for positive regression to the mean.
WR – PPR Points – PPR Rank Team Target Market Share – Overall WR Rank* Targets per Route Run Rate – Overall WR Rank* Yards per Route Run – Overall WR Rank* Green Zone** Targets – Overall WR Rank* Routes Run-Receptions/Targets-Yards-TDs
Stefon Diggs – 85.4 – WR1 27.6% – WR14 30.2% – WR8 2.97 – WR4 5 – T-WR5 116-27/35-344-4
Cooper Kupp 80.0 – WR2 34.7% – WR1 30.7% – WR7 2.46 – WR11 4 – T-WR8  114-28/34-280-3
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 73.1 – WR3 30.6% – WR7 32.4% – WR4 2.48 – WR10 2 – T-WR17 102-23/33-253-3
Jaylen Waddle – 72.9 – WR4 29.7% – WR8 34.9% – WR1 3.98 – WR1 3 – T-WR10 86-19/30-342-3
Drake London – 51.4 – WR14 32.9% – WR3 32.9% – WR3 2.82 – WR6 1 – T-WR31 65-16/25-214-2

*Among NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets, ** Targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line 

  • London is already earning targets at an elite level, currently sitting top-three in both target efficiency metrics. 
  • The rookie wide receiver is also an extremely efficient yardage producer, as his 2.82 yards per route run have bested both Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown. 
  • The biggest hurdle London needs to clear is his team’s bottom-four neutral passing rate, 52.8%. The Buffalo Bills (Stefon Diggs) currently sit top-three (72.2%), the Miami Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle) rank 11th (66.1%), the Los Angeles Rams ( Kupp) are two spots below in 13th (65.3%) and the Detroit Lions (St. Brown) rank 24th (59.3%). 
  • Fantasy managers should expect coach Arthur Smith to increase the neutral passing rate as the season progresses. Atlanta has impressively scored 26, 27 and 27 points through three games but has won just once. Atlanta is going to have to air it out more if they want to win.
  • London is still in his buy-low window.

 Breece Hall is the No. 1 Buy-Low at Running Back

  • The New York Jets have fluctuated in their running back deployment. They’ve kept rookie running back Breece Hall and second-year running back Michael Carter involved in all three games, with a one-off showing from veteran Ty Johnson in Week 2. 
  • The latter occurrence initially caused concern but tensions abated after coach Robert Saleh relegated Johnson back to irrelevance in Week 3.
  • As detailed last week, Hall performed far more efficiently than his backfield competition in Weeks 1 and 2, and that trend held true in Week 3.
Rushing in Week 3 Yards per Carry  Yards After Contact per Carry Carries-Yards-TDs-Fumbles
Breece Hall 3.55 2.63 8-39-0-0
Michael Carter 4.88 2.36 11-39-0-0
  • The New York Jets did not record any snaps in the Cincinnati Bengals’ green zone this week. 
  • On the year, Hall leads Carter in yards per carry, 5.33-to-4.36, and yards after contact per carry, 4.00-to-2.71.
  • As shown below, Hall has earned the primary passing game role out of the backfield.
Receiving in Week 3 Routes-Rec/TGT-Yards-TDs Target per Route Run Rate Yards per Route Run 3rd Down Snaps – 2-Minute Drill Snaps
Breece Hall 28-6/11-53-0 39.3% 1.89 15 – 10
Michael Carter 21-1/2-7-0 9.5% 0.33 2 – 4
  • Not only is Hall’s receiving usage and production noteworthy within the Jets’ backfield, but he is also quietly at the top of the charts league-wide. 
Top-3 NFL RBs in Targets Team Target Market Share – Overall RB Rank* Targets per Route Run Rate – Overall RB Rank* Yards per Route Run – Overall RB Rank* Green Zone** Targets – Overall RB Rank* Routes Run-Receptions/Targets-Yards-TDs
Austin Ekeler 18.2% – T-RB3 31.0% – RB3 1.96 – RB2 2 – T-RB3 71-21/22-139-0
Javonte Williams 20.8% – RB1 34.4% – T-RB1 1.26 – RB10 3 – T-RB1 61-15/21-77-0
Breece Hall 14.2% – RB9 34.4% – T-RB1 1.66 – RB4 2 – T-RB3 61-13/21-101-1

*Among NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets, ** Targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line 

  • The Jets have done a good job transferring more of the passing game work to Hall, and it is only a matter of time until they admit Hall also needs to be getting double-digit carries each week. 
  • New York’s Week 5 opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, are one of the NFL’s most friendly defenses to opposing running backs. They’ve allowed 428 rushing yards, 5th most in the league, and two rushing touchdowns on the year. The next closest team in rushing yards allowed is the Chicago Bears with 379. 
  • Pittsburgh has also allowed the 10th most running back yards receiving per game this year with 43.4. 

Rhamondre Stevenson is New England’s Lead Running Back

  • Stevenson started the year No. 3 on the running back depth chart behind Damien Harris and Ty Montgomery. After Week 3, Stevenson surpassed his backfield competition.  
New England Running Backs Week 1 Snaps-Carries-Routes Run-Targets  Week 2 Snaps-Carries-Routes Run-Targets Week 3 Snaps-Carries-Routes Run-Targets
Rhamondre Stevenson 14-8-5-2 41-9-23-2 39-12-26-5
Damien Harris 21-9-10-3 26-15-9-2 24-11-11-3
Ty Montgomery* 19-2-11-4 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0

*Now on Injured Reserve

  • During the last two weeks, Stevenson has completely dominated passing down work. He’s out-snapped Harris 12-to-5 on third downs and 12-to-5 in the two-minute drill. 
  • Stevenson and Harris have split the green zone snaps down the middle during the last two weeks, 6-to-6. But in Week 3, Stevenson did take 5 of the green zone snaps to Harris’ 3. 
  • Stevenson is hot off an excellent performance with 12 carries for 73 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 4 catches on 5 targets for 28 yards so trading for him now will be difficult. New England is scheduled to face the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions over the next 2 weeks. Green Bay’s 340 rushing yards allowed are the 13th most in the NFL. Detroit’s 427 rushing yards allowed rank 6th most and their 7 rushing touchdowns allowed are the most in the NFL. It might be hard to trade for him, but Stevenson has some real-end upside against those teams. 

WATCH MORE: Trey Wingo Is Joined By DeAngelo Hall to Recap NFL Week 3

 

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