Breakdowns

Week 11 NFL Matchups to Watch

Here are some interesting Week 11 matchups that are worth watching:

Titans at Ravens

  • The Ravens have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 18.3 points per game, but curiously rank dead last in touchdown % in the red zone, allowing TDs on 76.7% of opponent red-zone drives.
  • The Titans are tied for 10th in the NFL in offensive red-zone attempts with 34, reaching the red zone on about 41% of their drives, and rank second in offensive red zone touchdown %, reaching the end zone on 76.5% of red-zone drives.
  • With the Titans excelling in the red zone offensively and the Ravens’ defense struggling near the goal line, the Ravens cannot afford a “bend but don’t break” approach. Results in the red zone may make the difference in this one.

Packers at Colts

  • The Packers’ offense has the second-best EPA per play in the league, while the Colts’ defense is in the top 5 in EPA allowed per play.
  • While the Colts’ DL has been top 5 against the run, they are in the middle of the pack against the pass. This fact, coupled with the Packers’ top 5 pass blocking OL, may give the edge to the Packers’ offense.

Chiefs at Raiders

  • When these teams met in Week 5, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was held to his lowest completion percentage of the season (51.2%), sacked 3 times and threw his only interception of the season in a 40-32 Raiders win.
  • For the season, the Chiefs have the best EPA per play in the league, while the Raiders’ defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play.
  • If that’s not enough, six of the Raiders’ defensive starters are on the Covid-19 list. A big Mahomes revenge game might be in order.

Rams at Buccaneers

  • This will be a tough defensive battle, with L.A. coming off a statement win over the Seahawks, their defense only allowing 16 points and forcing three Russell Wilson turnovers.
  • Both defenses rank in the top 5 of EPA allowed per play. If either defense has a weakness, it’s the Rams rushing defense, ranked 10th in EPA allowed per rush.
  • Bucs G Ali Marpet is questionable with a concussion, but his return could allow Ronald Jones to be the X-factor in this game.

Patriots at Texans

  • The Patriots’ second-ranked rush offense will run all over the Texans’ bottom-barrel rush defense, while Texans QB Deshaun Watson should have success through the air against the Patriots’ 22nd-ranked pass defense.
  • The Patriots haven’t had a losing record in the month of November since 2002 (they’re currently 2-1 with two November games left). Despite their 4-5 record, fivethirtyeight still gives New England a 20% chance of making the playoffs, which would increase their postseason streak to 12 consecutive seasons.
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