Breakdowns
12/2/21
4 min read
Daily Fantasy Week 13: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks
Welcome back to the Daily Fantasy: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks article for Week 11 of the NFL season. Some injuries stand out this week, bringing some players into the spotlight. This slate is full of attractive running back plays, with less clarity at wide receiver. Let's move on to the plays.
Love It
Players in the “Love it” section are guys that we are excited to play in any format, regardless of the ownership that they may garner that week.
Antonio Gibson ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The big news around the Washington backfield is that J.D. McKissic is not going to play this week in their matchup with Las Vegas. McKissic and Antonio Gibson had been practically splitting backfield snaps before the injury, but with McKissic out of the picture, Gibson should see the majority of snaps. It is unlikely he sees a complete lion share of the backfield snaps, but he should see the majority. He got up to 36 total touches last week, and although he probably won't reach that number again, he could come close.
This matchup with Las Vegas is an exploitable one, as they rank 29th in DraftKings points allowed to opposing running backs. Gibson will come with some hefty ownership on both sites, but it isn't unwarranted. Gibson is averaging over 100 total yards over the past three weeks, and he has two total touchdowns. With McKissic out, we should see an uptick in Gibson's passing down usage. Gibson is a great play in all formats this week.
Need It
This section will contain guys who we believe are necessary when you are constructing a lineup for cash games. They are still viable in tournaments, but they aren’t necessary. We still like them as plays, but these guys may come with higher ownership, which could provide merit to fading them and going another route.
Eli Mitchell ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
You may be hesitant with two running backs back to back, but trust us, it is worth it. Elijah Mitchell was questionable in last week's matchup, but he ended up playing and seeing 27 carries, and 32 total touches. Mitchell has played seven total games with Garoppollo at quarterback, and he's averaged 19.14 carries per game, seeing 27 in each of his last two. The volume is going to be there, and now the only question is the matchup.
Everyone saw Gibson and McKissic run all over Seattle on Monday Night Football. Gibson put up 146 total yards, en route to 25.6 DraftKings points. Trey Sermon did alright in this matchup earlier in the year as the lead back, as he totaled 89 yards on 19 carries. Seattle has allowed the 2nd most DraftKings points to opposing running backs at 32.9 per game, the most rushing attempts with 31.8 per game, and the 10th most rushing yards per game. Mitchell is an easy play in cash games this week.
Hate it
Players in the “Hate it” section are guys that we do not want to roster that week in DFS for a number of reasons. They may have a bad matchup, they may be projecting to have too much ownership, they may be too expensive, or it could be a combination of the three.
Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Fading Lamar Jackson is a scary idea, but it's what we're confident in this week. Jackson is the highest-priced option on both sites this week, and those are price tags that we are not willing to pay. Jackson has been horrendous against Pittsburgh in his career, as he's averaged single-digit fantasy points across four contests. The total on this game is only 44, and Pittsburgh has actually been alright against opposing QBs this year. In a rivalry game between two teams that are extremely familiar with each other, it should be pretty low-scoring. We're avoiding Jackson in this spot.
Lottery Picks
The Lottery Picks section contains players who we think have the upside to be in tournament-winning lineups. As well as having the ceiling to win tournaments, these players also won’t come with too much ownership
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Everyone may be all over the Chargers' passing game in this spot, which makes us interested in Austin Ekeler. Cincinnati has allowed the most receptions, targets, and fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Ekeler has seen 5+ targets in every single game except two this season, and he averages 6.6 targets per game if you take Week 1 out of the picture. He has been an absolute touchdown monster this season, totaling 7 on the ground and 7 through the air. Cincinnati has allowed the 8th most DraftKings points to opposing running backs at 26.5 per game. All the stars seem to be aligning for Ekeler this week, and he doesn't seem to be getting much ownership buzz. We love Ekeler in tournaments this week.
