Welcome back to the Daily Fantasy: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks article for Week 11 of the NFL season. We’ve seen weeks similar to this one, that have a bunch of “okay” game environments, with one game looking like a monster shootout. That shootout this week is Dallas vs. Kansas City. Let’s move on to the plays.
Players in the “Love it” section are guys that we are excited to play in any format, regardless of the ownership that they may garner that week.
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Lamar Jackson is coming off his worst performance of the season, where he put up 16.42 DraftKings points against Miami on Thursday night. Even with this clunker, he still ranks third amongst all QBs with 26.1 DraftKings points per game. With the release of Le’Veon Bell, the Ravens may look to Jackson to use his legs more in the running game. He has 50+ yards on the ground in seven of nine games, and we expect him to make it eight out of ten. Jackson missed Thursday’s practice due to illness, but he practiced on Friday, making him look good to go for Sunday.
The Bears somewhat shut down Ben Roethlisberger in their last game before the bye, where he only put up 16.2 DraftKings points. However, they were torched in the three games prior. Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers put up 30.28, 24.44, and 23.7 DraftKings points respectively against this defense. Chicago is middling on the season in points allowed to QBs, averaging 20 DraftKings points against per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, Jackson is no average quarterback, and he should put up a show this weekend.
This section will contain guys who we believe are necessary when you are constructing a lineup for cash games. They are still viable in tournaments, but they aren’t necessary. We still like them as plays, but these guys may come with higher ownership, which could provide merit to fading them and going another route.
AJ Dillon ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
With Aaron Jones spraining his MCL, AJ Dillon steps into the lead role in the Packers’ backfield. After Jones’ injury last week, Dillon saw 21 carries en route to 66 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching two balls for 62 yards. Despite being a bigger back, Dillon sees a handful of targets per game, making him extra useful in fantasy. Dillon was seeing around 8-12 carries and 1-3 targets per game before Jones got hurt. Now Dillon steps into the spotlight, and he is massively underpriced for his role.
The matchup is as good as it gets, as Minnesota ranks dead last giving up 4.725 net adjusted line yards. Minnesota is 28th in DVOA against the run and 28th in yards allowed per carry. There are really no holes to poke in Dillon as a play this week. He will come with some steep ownership, but it is well worth it. You can fade Dillon in tournaments due to ownership, but we’re fine playing him in tournaments as well.
Players in the “Hate it” section are guys that we do not want to roster that week in DFS for a number of reasons. They may have a bad matchup, they may be projecting to have too much ownership, they may be too expensive, or it could be a combination of the three.
Kyler Murray ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
You’ve seen us take this stance before, and we’re going to do it again. Kyler Murray is simply a different quarterback when he is banged up. Last year he struggled mightily while injured, and this year he’s dealing with an ankle sprain. For a quarterback who relies on his mobility, you don’t like to see that. Seattle’s defense also may have rounded a corner. They held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17 points in Lambeau Field. In a Divisional matchup between two rivals, we may see a slower-paced matchup as these teams know each other well. This is not a spot where we’d like to deploy a banged-up Murray.
The Lottery Picks section contains players who we think have the upside to be in tournament-winning lineups. As well as having the ceiling to win tournaments, these players also won’t come with too much ownership
Dak Prescott ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
For some reason, Dak Prescott is currently projected to be sub-5% owned on both sites. Against the Kansas City Chiefs! Are you kidding! If this holds true, which we somewhat doubt, then Prescott is in a smash spot at low ownership. Taking advantage of Kansas City’s porous defense has been a recipe for success all season, and we see no reason to stop. The low ownership may be due to him being priced around the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Prescott’s weapons are also projected to be very low owned, as Ezekiel Elliot, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper are all projected to be sub-5% owned on both sites. With this game having a sky-high total and featuring two high-octane offenses, we don’t expect these ownerships to hold. Either way, they shouldn’t get out of control. Playing Prescott, along with his weapons is one of our favorite strategies in tournaments this week.