The Kansas City Chiefs look immortal yet again despite all of their injuries.
After a 26-13 win against the New Orleans Saints, the Chiefs remain undefeated with a perfect 5-0 record. They're one of just two remaining undefeated teams, with the Minnesota Vikings also at 5-0 in the NFC after a statement win against the New York Jets in London.
It doesn't seem to matter what gets thrown at Andy Reid and his team. The Chiefs continue to assert their AFC dominance, and it doesn't look like it's slowing down any time soon.
Mounting Injuries
Before diving into what makes the Chiefs so dominant this season, it's worth highlighting the key injuries that the team is dealing with.
Multiple top playmakers are out, most notably and recently, Rashee Rice. The second-year receiver from SMU was off to a red-hot start before a knee injury against the Raiders likely ended his season.
Rice's absence is tough enough, but the Chiefs have also been without free agent veteran Hollywood Brown, who suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery in the preseason. He will miss the entire regular season, but he has an outside chance at playing in the postseason.
There's also concern about when star RB Isiah Pacheco will return. The initial expectation was that he would miss six to eight weeks with a fractured right fibula, but Reid implied that it could be a season-ending injury.
Even the defense is without one of its top pass rushers, Charles Omenihu, who is on the PUP list as he continues to recover from a torn ACL.
Although the offense is dealing with the majority of the team's most significant injuries, it hasn't stopped scoring points.
How Are You Still Alive?
This many injuries would have derailed plenty of offenses around the NFL. But those other teams don't have Patrick Mahomes.
The box score stats don't look great for Mahomes. He's thrown for six touchdowns and six interceptions, which puts him on pace to shatter his previous career-high of 14 interceptions in a season.
Mahomes isn't playing like the gunslinger, taking consistent deep shots like he did earlier in his career. Instead, he's taking a more conservative approach and relying on accuracy over big-play potential.
Through five games, Mahomes is posting a career-high 69.4 completion percentage. His average depth of target in Week 5 was only 4.4 yards, but he was finding his open receivers and letting them make plays in space, generating 8.4 total expected points added (h/t RBSDM).
Reid and Mahomes have continued to adapt the offense based on their offensive personnel. This year, the passing game is trying to stay relentlessly efficient on short passes. Mahomes has completed 83.5 percent of passes behind the line of scrimmage or less than 10 yards downfield, averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and zero touchdowns.
On 34 pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage, the only incompletion was a drop.
Monday night's passing chart shows just how much the Chiefs have to rely on the quick passing game without so many key playmakers.
The Chiefs must rely on familiar faces and an exciting rookie to move the ball right now. Travis Kelce has reemerged in the last two games as a top target for Mahomes after a quiet start to the season. He's been targeted 19 times during the last two games, catching 16 of them for 159 yards.
Even veteran WR JuJu Smith-Schuster played a massive role in Kansas City's offense. After catching just two passes on the year, the Chiefs schemed him open to the tune of seven catches for 130 yards. It was the most receiving yards that he's had in a regular season game since 2018.
Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy looks like the team's biggest remaining X-factor with his explosiveness and top-end play speed. Although the Chiefs are still trying to figure out how to get him involved as a receiver besides just deep shots, he's becoming a nice extension of the run game on gadget plays that help him find the end zone.
However, with Worthy listed at 165 pounds, the Chiefs must be careful with how much of a workload they give their first-round pick. Especially because of the other injuries the offense is dealing with.
Instead, the passing game will likely continue to involve Mahomes getting the ball out quickly to keep dinking and dunking down the field. It's not the flashiest style of play, but it's getting the job done.
The Chiefs' offense is still ranked 11th by DVOA, and it's in the top half of the league with 23.6 points scored per game.
A Rushing Problem
The passing game is figuring out its identity, but the Chiefs still need to figure out what works in the running game without Pacheco.
So far, the Chiefs' offensive line is getting the job done, but the running backs are struggling to make the most of their opportunities. According to TruMedia, the Chiefs rank ninth in rushing yards before contact but 31st in yards after contact.
Carson Steele was supposed to be a breakout star, but fumbling issues have kept him off of the field. With three fumbles on 33 carries, he has the highest fumble rate for a running back with at least 20 carries since 2000.
Steele could fix his fumble issues as the season rolls on, but it's having a real impact on his ability to stay on the field.
Instead, the Chiefs are turning to veteran RB Kareem Hunt, who was signed just a few weeks ago, to save their run game. He's been leaned on heavily during the last two games, carrying the ball 41 times for 171 yards and a touchdown.
That workload may not be sustainable for a 29-year-old running back as the season rolls on. The good news is that reinforcements should be on their way, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire nearing a return after missing the start of the season.
There isn't a star running back on the roster without Pacheco, but a committee approach with Hunt, CEH, Samaje Perine, and Steele should help the Chiefs find more of a rushing identity as the season continues.
NFL Analysis
10/8/24
14 min read
2024 NFL Week 6 Power Rankings: Commanders Enter Top 5
Week 5 was another fantastic week around the NFL, but there were upsets galore, which means there is a lot of movement in our power rankings.
Top 10 teams like the 49ers, Bills, Seahawks, and Buccaneers all fell this week, and it’s become clearer that we don’t have many “elite” teams right now. But who are our top teams? Which teams look like September flukes?
Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week of action:
NFL Week 6 Power Rankings
1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
Previous Ranking: 1
The Kansas City Chiefs still haven't put together a complete game, and they have a glaring weakness at receiver, with Rashee Rice (knee) likely out for the entire 2024 season.
Still, they are at 5-0 and have played a difficult schedule. The good news is that their defense continues to shine, and they actually ran the ball effectively against the Saints. The Chiefs are on bye in Week 6, and need to figure out their red zone issues, but they have to be thrilled with their start considering the schedule.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 20 vs. 49ers
2. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
Previous Ranking: 2
It shouldn’t be shocking anymore at this point that the Minnesota Vikings are ranked so highly. No team in the NFL has played a more difficult schedule, and they’ve faced a gauntlet of elite quarterbacks, including C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers.
Yet, they’ve conquered them all. The Vikings are absolutely a legit playoff contender and with a Week 6 bye upcoming, it will be hard to put an NFC team ahead of them anytime soon.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 20 vs. Lions
3. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 3
Lamar Jackson had another MVP-caliber game in Week 5, totaling more than 400 yards and four touchdowns. It was a gritty, tough win for the Baltimore Ravens, but their defense is starting to become a concern.
They allowed 25 or more points in just two games (including the postseason) last season but have already done so four times in 2024. They need Jackson to continue to play at an MVP level to win the AFC North.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Commanders
4. Houston Texans (4-1)
Previous Ranking: 7
Houston did not play an A+ game against the Bills, and yet it came away with a win.
The Houston Texans were lost on offense once Nico Collins left the game, but their defense got enough stops to ultimately hold on. Houston has a commanding lead in the AFC South, and now it’s time for it to put together a run at the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Patriots
5. Washington Commanders (4-1)
Previous Ranking: 11
The Washington Commanders are not a fluke. Against one of the league’s best defenses, Jayden Daniels lit up the Browns in a game that was never competitive.
Washington’s defense is starting to come together, as it allowed just six non-garbage-time points to the Browns. Through five games, the Commanders have to be considered the clear-cut favorites in the NFC East. What a start for Washington.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Ravens
6. Detroit Lions (3-1)
Previous Ranking: 5
Detroit was on a bye in Week 5, and it remains one of the top teams in the NFC. What is fascinating about the Lions is they appear to be a stronger team this year than in 2023, but they might not win their division.
The Vikings have looked so dominant out of the gate, and their Week 7 matchup could decide who wins the NFC North. Make no mistake about it: the Lions are a Super Bowl contender again this season.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Cowboys
7. Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 6
The Buffalo Bills went toe-to-toe with the Texans in Houston, but some rough game management decisions by Sean McDermott gave away this game.
The Bills aren’t the same without Khalil Shakir on offense, as Josh Allen completed just nine passes on Sunday. This is still a talented team, but its flaws are clear, and it could hold it back from advancing deep in the playoffs.
Next Game: Monday, Oct. 14 vs. Jets
8. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 8
After a 3-0 start, the Seattle Seahawks have dropped back-to-back games. They had a massive rest disadvantage against the Giants (10 days vs. 6 days), and it showed.
Seattle’s defense couldn’t get off the field, and New York controlled the time of possession all game long. The most concerning thing for the Seahawks was their pass protection, as the Giants pressured Geno Smith all game. Seattle is still in a good spot in the NFC West, but its Week 6 matchup against the 49ers could go a long way in deciding its fate in the NFC.
Next Game: Thursday, Oct. 10 vs. 49ers
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 9
Tampa Bay played a fantastic game against the Falcons in Atlanta in Week 5, but it just didn’t result in a win.
The Buccaneers outplayed the Falcons for the entire game, but the defense just couldn’t get off the field on either of its final two drives. The good news for the Buccaneers is that Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, and they look like a sure-fire playoff team this season.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Saints
10. San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 4
The San Francisco 49ers are usually a team that improves a lot in the second half of the season, but their defense is starting to become a big concern.
They just can’t get a stop when they need one, and it costs them again on Sunday. Sitting at 2-3, the 49ers are only a game back in the NFC West going into Week 6. However, the vibes are not great in San Francisco.
Next Game: Thursday, Oct. 10 vs. Seahawks
11. Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 12
It took a while, but the Green Bay Packers started to look like themselves again in the second half against the Rams. Jordan Love made a few knucklehead plays in the first half, but he and the rest of the offense settled down and got the road win in Los Angeles.
The Packers have not played a complete game in which both sides of the ball stand out, but they are above .500 despite their star quarterback missing two early-season starts.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Cardinals
12. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 15
Last year, the Dallas Cowboys could not win ugly, gritty games, especially on the road. This year, they have done so in back-to-back weeks despite a massive number of injuries on defense.
It’s clear that Dallas isn’t anywhere near as talented as it was last season, but getting to 3-2 after five games is more than fine as it heads into its Week 6 matchup against the Lions.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Lions
13. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 13
After a slow start to the season, the Atlanta Falcons are starting to find themselves. They got a gritty win against the Saints and then another against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.
Kirk Cousins played one of the best games of his career, and the Falcons are now over .500 for the first time this season. It’s taken a bit, but this looks like the team we all envisioned when they signed Cousins this offseason.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Panthers
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 10
Pittsburgh played its style of game in Week 5, creating three turnovers on defense and blocking a field goal against Dallas.
However, because their offense remains stagnant, the Cowboys hung around and stole a game they probably shouldn’t have won. The Pittsburgh Steelers have now dropped two straight games, and questions about Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields will surely arise this week.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Raiders
15. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Previous Ranking: 16
The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the Los Angeles Chargers, as they have several key starters dealing with injuries. The biggest of which was Justin Herbert, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3.
If the Chargers get healthy, they can be a real contender in the AFC because of their strong defense and elite rushing attack. Still, their durability and health are huge areas of concern moving forward.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Broncos
16. Chicago Bears (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 22
Caleb Williams has steadily improved in each of his five starts, and he was fantastic against the Panthers in Week 5. Chicago’s defense is one of the most underrated units in the league, and the Bears suddenly have a big home-field advantage and win nine straight wins.
Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Jaguars (London)
17. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
Previous Ranking: 18
The Philadelphia Eagles needed a bye week after a blowout loss in Week 4, and their season might come down to their Week 6 matchup against the Cleveland Browns.
If the Eagles can’t win that game, things could get ugly really fast. Their schedule does get easier in the next month with games against the Browns, Giants, and Jaguars. This is a team that needs to start playing well and building confidence.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Browns
18. New Orleans Saints (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 14
After their hot start, the New Orleans Saints have now dropped three games in a row, and their offense doesn't look the same at all. The offensive line has suffered several injuries, and you are starting to see that come back to haunt them.
The Saints are better than what the record shows, but they've looked worse each week. Now, with Derek Carr (oblique) dealing with an injury, things are getting scary quick in New Orleans.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Buccaneers
19. Denver Broncos (3-2)
Previous Ranking: 23
Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos have won three straight games and are now above .500 for the first time this season.
Bo Nix played better against Las Vegas, but the defense continues to be the story here. Vance Joseph’s unit is playing out of their mind, and it's keeping the offense in the game. Denver is still a few years away, but it’s cool to see this young team improve each week.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Chargers
20. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)
Previous Ranking: 19
Are the Cincinnati Bengals the best 1-4 team in NFL history? Who knows, but there is no reason this team should be 1-4 with the play of Joe Burrow.
He leads the NFL in touchdown passes (12) and has a career-high passer rating of 113.6. Yet, their defense can’t get any stops, and their coaching staff has held them back in multiple games.
Luckily, they are only two games back in the AFC North with five divisional meetings left. The Bengals have to start stringing together wins if they want to be competitive at all this season.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Giants
21. New York Jets (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 17
The same issues continue to plague the New York Jets. They make a lot of mental mistakes and unforced errors, like false starts, delay of games, and holding calls.
Then there are the turnovers, which Aaron Rodgers had three of in Week 5. The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Jets with games against the Bills and Steelers in primetime in the next two weeks. There is no question they are loaded with talent, but this isn’t a well-coached team.
Next Game: Monday, Oct. 14 vs. Bills
22. Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 21
The Indianapolis Colts were decimated by injuries going into Week 5 with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor out.
Still, they were highly competitive against the Jaguars on the road and nearly pulled off the win. The Colts are 2-3 on the season but are much better than their record indicates. Don’t give up on this team just yet.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Titans
23. Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 25
Sunday was a good reminder of just how talented Kyler Murray is and how well he can play in any given week.
Against a much better team, Murray was the best player on the field, and it led to the Cardinals upsetting the 49ers. Arizona’s offense is so much fun to watch and as long as Murray can stay healthy, Arizona has a chance in every single game.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Packers
24. Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 20
The Las Vegas Raiders had their winning streak against the Broncos snapped in Week 5, mostly due to turnovers on offense. Las Vegas was moving the ball well early in the game, but a 100-yard pick-six by Patrick Surtain II off Gardner Minshew changed the game.
Minshew was eventually replaced by Aidan O’Connell, but he didn’t fare any better. The Raiders are a good team with a bottom-five quarterback situation. And that’s exactly what most thought of them going into the 2024 season.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Steelers
25. Los Angeles Rams (1-4)
Previous Ranking: 26
The Los Angeles Rams are just too beat up to close out games despite being competitive. They held a late in the second half, but their defense allowed too many big plays, and Matthew Stafford couldn’t do it all.
The good news for Los Angeles is that the 49ers are 2-3, and the Seahawks have now dropped back-to-back games. If Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua return to the lineup soon, they’ll have an outside chance to compete in the division. Don’t give up hope just yet.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 20 vs. Raiders
26. New York Giants (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 28
The New York Giants played their best game of the season, and Daniel Jones was in complete control. The defense dominated, pressuring Geno Smith all game long.
New York is still the worst team in the NFC East, but this is a respectable team that is clearly more talented than last season. Good job by Brian Daboll and his staff getting a tough road win against a good team.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Bengals
27. Cleveland Browns (1-4)
Previous Ranking: 24
There might not be a more disappointing team in the NFL than the Cleveland Browns. After making the playoffs last season, Cleveland’s offense is the worst in the league.
Deshaun Watson continues to struggle, and the defense is starting to get exposed. Cleveland needs to make some sort of change to switch things up, but Kevin Stefanski is hesitant to give up on Watson. However, with Cleveland sitting at 1-4, he might not have a choice.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Browns
28. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Previous Ranking: 29
The Miami Dolphins looked awful against the Titans in Week 4, and we debated on putting them at the very bottom of the power rankings.
However, they bounced back in Week 5 and got a much-needed win against the Patriots. With a record of 2-3, the Dolphins aren’t out of the running in the AFC East at all. They are just 1.5 games behind Buffalo, and we are inching closer to Tua Tagovailoa’s return. If they can win one more game and get back to .500, they’ll have a real shot to make some noise in the second half of the season.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 20 vs. Colts
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
Previous Ranking: 32
The Jacksonville Jaguars had to get a win in Week 5 to avoid an 0-2 start, and they got it done against the Colts. Trevor Lawrence played his best game of the season, and Brian Thomas looked like a superstar, catching his third touchdown of the season.
Jacksonville still has a long climb back in the AFC, but this was a nice win to get before it heads to London.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Bears
30. Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Previous Ranking: 27
Tennessee earned its first win of the season in Week 4 and were on bye in Week 5. Mason Rudolph helped them earn that victory, but coach Brian Callahan is adamant that Will Levis will start when he is 100 percent healthy.
We’ll see if Levis is healthy going into Week 6, but the Titans have a capable backup if they need him this week.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Colts
31. Carolina Panthers (1-4)
Previous Ranking: 30
It’s starting to look like the Week 3 win against the Raiders was a fluke for the Carolina Panthers. They weren’t competitive against the Bears, and Andy Dalton’s play has dropped off significantly in the last few weeks.
Their defense has suffered some big injuries, including to Derrick Brown, so this shouldn’t be a surprise. But this was another rough outing for Carolina against a good, but not great, Bears team.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Falcons
32. New England Patriots (1-4)
Previous Ranking: 31
The New England Patriots are right back to being the worst team in the NFL after losing to Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins at home. The offense scored just 10 points, and they might be the hardest team in the league to watch.
Hopefully, Drake Maye can play soon and provide some entertainment value because it’s a job to watch this team for three hours on a Sunday.
Next Game: Sunday, Oct. 13 vs. Texans
NFL Analysis
10/7/24
1 min read
Frankie Luvu: Elite Work Ethic Key to Jayden Daniels’ Success
Commanders LB Frankie Luvu discussed what is making rookie QB Jayden Daniels so special so early in his career during an interview with Ari Meirov on “NFL Spotlight”.
Like this clip? Catch full episodes of NFL Spotlight Monday-Friday wherever you get your podcasts: listen.the33rdteam.com/nflspotlight
NFL Analysis
10/7/24
5 min read
New England Patriots Would Be Foolish To Start Drake Maye in 2024
The New England Patriots have a tough decision to make at the quarterback position. However, if they are truly invested in a long-term rebuild, they should wait to start Drake Maye until next season.
The Patriots selected Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This move was meant to signal a new era in New England, with Jerod Mayo taking over for Bill Belichick as head coach.
However, the Patriots have been unwilling to play Maye through the first five games of the season, opting instead to start journeyman Jacoby Brissett. After being adamant that Brissett would remain the starter, Mayo was much more noncommittal after the team's loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
"Every single day, we are all being evaluated, and it's no different now," Mayo told reporters when asked about a potential quarterback change.
It's understandable that Mayo is under pressure to turn to the first-round rookie. However, for Maye's long-term development, it's important that the Patriots keep him on the sideline for as long as possible.
Maye Would CAPTAIN A Sinking Ship
Maye won't fix any of New England's problems on offense.
The stats aren't great, but Brissett is trying his best to take care of the football through five games. He's completing just 58.5 percent of his passes with 5.2 yards per attempt but has just one interception and zero fumbles. Pro Football Focus has him graded out at a 58.1 overall grade, which isn't good, but it's also not close to the worst grade on the Patriots offense.
Offensive line play is far and away the biggest problem for the Patriots' offense. Brissett has already been sacked 17 times this season, the third-most sacks on a quarterback this season. He's also third in the NFL with 74 pressures, behind only Deshaun Watson and Geno Smith.
The cut-up below shows just how bad things have gotten for Brissett, who is constantly throwing under duress.
Gotta respect Jacoby Brissett effort under pressure after being sacked due to coverage, then an instant interior loss on his first two dropbacks
Stood in to make multiple throws, some while being brought down, and had positive moments in extra long yardage situations pic.twitter.com/xl86ehLs6M
The offensive line issues will only get worse. Starting center David Andrews, who was arguably New England's best offensive lineman, was placed on injured reserve after season-ending shoulder surgery. Rookie starter Caedan Wallace was also put on IR, with the potential to return later this season.
The offensive line is completely depleted, and putting a rookie quarterback like Maye out there would only make things worse. As a younger quarterback, Maye might not be totally caught up with the team's pass protection schemes, and with Andrews out, that becomes even harder to handle with a backup center.
As NFL fans have seen with the Carolina Panthers, Byrce Young was forced onto the field early without much help up front. He was sacked 62 times last year, and by 2024, he looked like a completely different quarterback than the Heisman Trophy winner he was at Alabama.
According to FTN Fantasy, the Patriots' offense was 30th-ranked by DVOA through Week 5. They rank 31st with 250.8 total offensive yards per game and 12.4 points per game.
A Locker Room On The Edge
The biggest problem Mayo faces with keeping Maye on the bench is losing the trust of his players.
Veterans may view the organization deciding to sit Maye as a way of coddling him while starters are continuing to get beat up on a bad team. In fact, a recent report from Patriots.com senior reporter Evan Lazar suggested as much on a recent podcast.
"Right now, they're teetering on mutiny in that locker room," he said. "And I don't want to be alarmist or hyperbolic, I don't. But I was in that locker room. ... You're at the point now, with 52 other guys in that locker room, that all watch these two quarterbacks practice every single day, that all know they drafted Drake Maye third overall, and at what point in time do some of these guys say to themselves, 'Why am I going out there and getting my butt kicked every single Sunday, and Drake can't? Why am I going out there with a quarterback who can't get me the football when we have the Ferrari back in the garage that can get me the football?'"
If things continue to get worse and players start publicly calling for Maye to start, Mayo will have no choice but to go with the rookie quarterback.
Is It Time to Tank?
No matter how talented Maye is, he will not turn the Patriots into a playoff contender.
In fact, the Patriots should start thinking about next offseason instead of a potential path to the playoffs. If the season ended today, New England would have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, allowing them to quickly load up on young talent to turn the offense around.
They also have a projected $136 million in cap space in 2025 to sign veteran free agents. Key players like Jonathan Jones, Austin Hooper, and Michael Jordan could be re-signed, but that's not guaranteed.
That kind of cap flexibility and draft capital could allow the Patriots to quickly revamp their entire roster in a single offseason. An infusion of talent, with Maye taking over at quarterback in 2025, could quickly alter expectations for a team on track to have the NFL's worst record in 2024.
NFL Analysis
10/7/24
14 min read
2025 NFL Mock Draft: Updated Picks, Predictions For Round 1
The haves and have-nots are revealing themselves across the NFL through the first five weeks of the season.
While Super Bowl contenders are emerging like the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs, others like the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are already looking ahead to the 2025 NFL Draft.
The draft order will continue to change in the coming weeks, but with Week 5 wrapping up, let's dive into an early mock draft.
The New England Patriots desperately need offensive line help, but it will be too hard to pass up on one of the most rare talents the NFL has seen in decades.
Hunter has the stamina, instincts, and athletic ability to be a legitimate two-way player, even at the NFL level. His presence on both sides of the ball could bolster a Patriots team in need of talent just about everywhere.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Selection: Mason Graham, DL, Michigan
Defense continues to be an issue for the Cincinnati Bengals, especially up front. Mason Graham checks all the boxes you want out of an interior defender with a 320-pound frame and an excellent motor.
He can hold his gap at the point of attack but also has the disruptive ability and hand usage to get penetration into the backfield as a run defender and pass rusher. That's exactly the kind of impact player the Bengals need in the trenches.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Selection: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
For as bad as things have been going for the Jacksonville Jaguars, there's a dominant defensive unit being built in Jacksonville. Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen are impressive edge defenders, and Tyson Campbell is a solid corner when healthy.
Adding another lockdown corner in Will Johnson would almost immediately make the Jaguars one of the best defensive units in the league.
TETAIROA. MCMILLAN. WHAT. A. CATCH. @TMAC96795 🤯🤯🤯
The Cleveland Browns *should* draft a quarterback, but the organization seems willing to keep riding with Deshaun Watson. His $172 million dead cap hit in 2025 if they cut him probably doesn't help with that.
If the Browns are stuck with Watson, they might as well add a receiver with Amari Cooper hitting free agency after this season. McMillan is the ultimate contested-catch wideout, with 29 contested catches made in his college career.
5. Los Angeles Rams
Selection: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
A depleted offensive line hasn't stopped Matthew Stafford from continuing to compete and keep the Los Angeles Rams in games this season. As long as he plans on continuing to play, the Rams should prioritize bolstering that offensive line.
Will Campbell is this year's top offensive tackle prospect, allowing zero sacks in the last two seasons. He could slot in anywhere on the line to immediately upgrade the unit.
6. Carolina Panthers
Selection: Nic Scourton, EDGE, Texas A&M
Are the Carolina Panthers ready to move on from Bryce Young? If so, they'd have their pick of the litter from this year's quarterback prospects.
If not, they should focus on improving a depleted defense with a player like Nic Scourton. Not only is he a polished pass-rusher with multiple moves to get to the quarterback, but he's also a stout run defender with a 285-pound frame to hold the edge.
7. Tennessee Titans
Selection: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
The Tennessee Titans don't even need to move up to take whichever quarterback they want in this mock. Brian Callahan likely wants his own quarterback to develop as a new head coach, and Jalen Milroe has the physical tools to be an explosive playmaker at the NFL level.
He's still a work in progress, but he's drastically improved as a pro-caliber passer this season at Alabama, improving his accuracy and post-snap processing.
8. Miami Dolphins
Selection: Kelvin Banks Jr., OL, Texas
As long as Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel are in Miami, the Miami Dolphins need to keep adding to their offensive line.
Kelvin Banks Jr. is a big-bodied lineman at 6-foot-4 and 320 pounds but also has the quick feet to play all over the offensive line.
9. New York Jets
Selection: Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
Garrett Wilson is an established No. 1 receiver for the New York Jets, but they still need that reliable second option. Luther Burden III can play outside or in the slot, with the quickness to create separation and make defenders miss after the catch.
He's the perfect complementary receiver to Wilson and could give Aaron Rodgers another outlet if he returns in 2025.
— go to ➡️ collegefootballnetwork.com (@PickettsPool) October 1, 2024
10. Las Vegas Raiders
Selection: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
The lack of a quarterback is really hurting the Las Vegas Raiders. At the same time, they need someone under center with the swagger and confidence to play for a head coach like Antonio Pierce.
Cam Ward fits that bill, playing with fearlessness while possessing outstanding arm talent and athletic ability. They'll need to find another established weapon if Davante Adams leaves, but finding a quarterback needs to be a priority after missing out on one in last year's draft.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Selection: Kenneth Grant, DL, Michigan
Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals offense are off to another hot start, but the defense needs more starting-caliber players up front to be a legitimate playoff contender in the coming years.
Kenneth Grant will fix a lot of those issues by himself. The 6-foot-3, 339-pound interior defender has elite play strength to dominate in the trenches and plug up rushing lanes to open up opportunities for the rest of his teammates. He's also a solid pass rusher with 11 pressures and two sacks this season.
12. Indianapolis Colts
Selection: Malaki Starks, SAF, Georgia
The Indianapolis Colts need all kinds of help on defense. Cornerback could be an option, but Jaylon Jones is starting to emerge as a playmaker while JuJu Brents should be back and healthy next season.
Malaki Starks could be an elite safety on the back end to clean up for the rest of the defense while they build out the rest of the roster. Starks and Nick Cross would create a strong long-term safety tandem.
13. San Francisco 49ers
Selection: Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame
Isaac Yiadom is a solid journeyman cornerback, but not one you want to lean on as a full-time starter as a Super Bowl contender.
Benjamin Morrison could be an awesome corner to pair with Charvarius Ward, bringing explosiveness and tenacity to the position to be an asset in coverage and in run support.
Ashton Jeanty vs. Utah State
Rare to find RBs that can shed tackles as easy as he does. Showed it all in this game. pic.twitter.com/RehHtMFMlc
What if the New York Giants decide that a $22 million dead cap hit isn't worth it to get rid of Daniel Jones in 2025? It's not like he's having a bad season, and the emergence of Malik Nabers has the Giants offense showing signs of life.
Instead of taking a quarterback, the Giants could find their next star running back in Ashton Jeanty. He has elite contact balance and outrageous production with 1,031 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns through five games.
He could give the Giants a much-needed workhorse in the running game to open up things even more for Jones, Nabers, and the rest of the passing game.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Selection: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
The Philadelphia Eagles haven't effectively replaced Haason Reddick, but that could change quickly by drafting Abdul Carter.
The in-state prospect has elite explosiveness and bend, along with the versatility to play both off-ball and on the edge. His presence would immediately elevate Philadelphia's pass rush.
16. New Orleans Saints
Selection: Deone Walker, DL, Kentucky
The New Orleans Saints continue to invest in their defensive front as they prepare for Cameron Jordan's eventual retirement.
However, they don't have anyone like Deone Walker. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 345 pounds, Walker can manhandle offensive linemen with enough quickness to generate pressure as a pass rusher.
17. Chicago Bears
Selection: Jonah Savaiinaea, OL, Arizona
The Chicago Bears need to embrace versatility for their offensive line, adding players who can play both guard and tackle. Jonah Savaiinaea, a 6-foot-5, 336-pound lineman, fits that bill.
He has experience at both tackle spots and right guard and can move in space as a puller or in the screen game. He'd likely immediately slot in as an upgrade over Teven Jenkins or Nate Davis.
Selection: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
The Green Bay Packers aren't getting the job done right now when it comes to rushing the passer. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley could reunite with one of his former players as the old Boston College head coach if the Packers drafted Donovan Ezeiruaku.
He's a legitimate pass rusher with an FBS-leading nine sacks so far this season. He has twitch, burst, bend, and everything else you want to see from a sub-250-pound rusher.
Jim Harbaugh has the chance to reunite with a former Wolverine, and the Los Angeles Chargers need a tight end. Colston Loveland is a legitimate weapon as a pass-catcher with length, top-end play speed, and a feel for soft spots in zone to get open.
He'd be the perfect safety valve for Justin Herbert, giving the Chargers a much-needed underneath target in the passing game.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Selection: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Justin Fields is filling in admirably for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Russell Wilson is still on the bench waiting for a chance to play. However, if the Steelers want to take a step forward as an offense, they need a quarterback who can make throws all over the field.
Shedeur Sanders has that, along with the toughness to deliver a ball while getting hit. Mike Tomlin is the perfect coach to mentor a young quarterback like Sanders as he continues to mature as a leader because the talent is already there.
21. Seattle Seahawks
Selection: Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama
Despite all of the talent on the Seattle Seahawks offense, an injured offensive line is keeping them from reaching their full potential. Some added depth in the trenches could do this team a lot of good, which is why Tyler Booker is such an ideal fit.
He could slot in at right tackle or one of the guard spots and is already a physical and technical prospect in pass protection, giving Geno Smith time to throw downfield to Seattle's explosive playmakers.
22. Denver Broncos
Selection: Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas
Courtland Sutton is struggling to get open, as Bo Nix takes some rookie-season lumps. A vertical playmaker could open things up for the rest of the offense, and Isaiah Bond is an ideal option for that role.
He has excellent play speed and explosiveness to take off downfield, stretching opposing defenses and opening things up underneath for his teammates.
23. Dallas Cowboys
Selection: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Demarcus Lawrence is a free agent after this season, and the Dallas Cowboys are struggling mightily to stop the run without him this year.
Mykel Williams brings excellent strength to the edge, which allows him to cave in the edges and stop the run. He's still working on being a more diverse pass rusher, but the Cowboys could afford to let that develop as Micah Parsons gets after the quarterback.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selection: Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are missing a chess piece on defense with the versatility that Jalon Walker possesses.
He operates as both an off-ball linebacker and edge rusher for the Georgia Bulldogs, and that versatility would open up things for the rest of Tampa's defense in 2025.
Tennessee’s James Pearce easily beating the RT with a rip-n-dip to turn the corner for a sack. Future first-round pick is just so smooth pic.twitter.com/vH5Q9Mu3Gx
Von Miller is 35 years old and nearing retirement. Without him, the Buffalo Bills don't have enough pass-rushing juice to be a serious Super Bowl contender in 2025 and beyond.
That would change with James Pearce Jr., who is a twitched-up speed rusher capable of flying around offensive tackles on his way to the quarterback. He'd be a different style of pass rusher than the rest of the roster if Miller is gone after this season.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Selection: Donovan Jackson, IOL, Ohio State
For an offense as exciting as the Baltimore Ravens' offense is, the offensive line still needs a lot of work.
Donovan Jackson has been a stable presence at left guard for the Ohio State Buckeyes for the last few seasons and could bring a similar stable presence to Baltimore.
27. Atlanta Falcons
Selection: Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina
Even with a torn ACL, Shavon Revel deserves legitimate first-round consideration. Opposing quarterbacks have a 59.7 passer rating when targeting him during his college career, and he's a tenacious tackler when triggering downhill.
The Atlanta Falcons have enough cornerbacks that they don't need to rush Revel onto the field, but he could be an impact starter once fully healthy.
28. Detroit Lions
Selection: Jack Sawyer, EDGE, Ohio State
Jack Sawyer feels like an ideal fit for the Detroit Lions defense. On top of being a legitimate pass rusher with 18 pressures this season, he can dominate in the trenches against the run.
He's an ideal EDGE partner to Aidan Hutchinson, who will give the Lions a boost against the pass and run.
29. Washington Commanders
Selection: Aireontae Ersery, OT, Minnesota
The Washington Commanders' top priority needs to be protecting their new star quarterback, Jayden Daniels.
Cornelius Lucas seems like a legit left tackle so far, but a prospect like Aireontae Ersery could be slotted in at right tackle with his 330-pound frame to protect Daniels off the edge while being a road grader in the run game.
30. Houston Texans
Selection: T.J. Sanders, DL, South Carolina
The South Carolina Gamecocks have an imposing defensive line led by T.J. Sanders. He is a dominant force against the run and as a pass rusher despite being a tick undersized at 290 pounds.
His relentlessness fits right in with the rest of the Houston Texans defense, which is flying around and sticking ball carriers in 2024.
Travis Kelce has to be nearing the end. In fact, a Super Bowl this season could be the perfect time for the future Hall of Fame tight end to retire.
Tyler Warren could be the perfect replacement for Kelce in the Chiefs' offense. He's a terrific athlete with body control and ball skills, but also the competitive toughness and strength to be a legitimate in-line blocker.
32. Minnesota Vikings
Selection: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Aaron Jones is a free agent after this season, but even if he returns, Omarion Hampton would be the perfect change-of-pace back for the Minnesota Vikings.
He has an absurd 120 forced missed tackles in the last three seasons, using his size and contact balance to let defenders wash off of him with ease. That kind of power in the backfield would give Kevin O'Connell yet another wrinkle to work with on offense.
NFL Analysis
10/7/24
21 min read
1st & 10 Week 5: Lamar vs Burrow, 49ers Woes, Stroud vs Allen & More
Week 5 might have been our craziest week yet. Not only did it start at 9:30 am Eastern and go until about 1 am, but all of the games were wild. We have a lot to cover, so let’s get to it.
Each week, 1st & 10 will bring you a Monday morning in-depth breakdown of everything you need to know from Sunday’s slate of games. We’ll fill this column with stats, film, and plenty of words to keep you covered on anything you might have missed or want to dive deeper into from Sunday.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 NFL Week 5
1. Lamar Jackson And Joe Burrow Battled
The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals haven’t always delivered entertaining games despite being among the best rivals between for the past few seasons. With strong defensive performances in previous meetings, we’ve gotten some AFC North slugfests.
However, the Ravens' 41-38 overtime win in Week 5 was about as exciting as it gets. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow combined for 740 yards and nine touchdowns. They were the second and fourth-best quarterbacks by EPA per play this week.
The Bengals were up multiple scores at separate points in this game, and the offense looked like the version that went to the Super Bowl a few years ago. Burrow had his most explosive passing day (19 percent), and he also threw the ball for his highest average depth of target on the season (8.3 yards).
This was the best version of Burrow, a quarterback who can get the ball out quickly to pick apart holes in a defense but also take shots when they’re given. Everything worked as well as the Bengals could have hoped.
Ja’Marr Chase had a monster day with 193 yards and two touchdowns on 10 receptions, including a 41-yard touchdown from the slot in a trips alignment right before the half.
Chase also took a screen 70 yards to put the Bengals up by 10 in the fourth quarter.
Tee Higgins had two touchdowns of his own, and then Burrow made nice deep passes to Andrei Iosivas and Mike Gesicki. This offense couldn’t have asked for much more. After a slow start, the Bengals rank second in EPA per play and success rate on offense for the season behind the Washington Commanders.
The Bengals controlled much of this game but fell off at the end. With three minutes remaining, a quick slant intended for Chase was left a little inside and intercepted by Marlon Humphry. That set up a game-tying field goal for the Ravens in regulation.
Then, after an overtime fumble, the Bengals got the ball for a first-and-10 on the Ravens’ 38-yard line. Cincinnati conservatively ran the ball three times and gained just three yards. On a 53-yard field goal attempt, the hold was messed up, and the kick was no good.
On the next play, Derrick Henry ran for 51 yards, putting the Ravens on the 6-yard line for a field goal that won the game.
Cincinnati's biggest problem remains the defense, which could not consistently slow down the Ravens. The Bengals came into the game focused on stopping the run and did so for much of the game.
Cincinnati played more base and stacked the box more often than they had in the first four weeks of the season. The strategy worked. Through the end of regulation, Ravens running backs averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Yet, that big Henry run shifted the end of the game.
Without a running game, as the Bengals sold out to stop it, the Ravens leaned on Lamar Jackson in the passing game, and the reigning MVP delivered. Jackson had 348 yards and four touchdowns as a passer and added 55 yards on the ground.
Jackson averaged 0.46 EPA per play and 9.2 yards per attempt on plays inside the pocket, mastering the rhythm of throwing against the Cincinnati defense. He threw a third of his passes into the intermediate level of the field (11-19) air yards and completed 64.3 percent of those throws.
Of course, Jackson created some playmaking magic, and his best throws were made on the run, such as the touchdown pass to Rashod Bateman in the second quarter.
His best play of the day featured a fumbled snap, stiff-arming a defender, scrambling around, firing a pass near the sideline, and finding Isaiah Likely in the end zone to bring the Ravens within three points in the fourth quarter.
Jackson is now third in EPA per play through the Sunday games in Week 5 and is off to a significantly better start than last season when he eventually won the MVP.
With the Steelers’ loss on Sunday Night Football, the Ravens jumped into first place in the AFC North. They have intriguing matchups with the Commanders and Buccaneers during the next two weeks.
Even with a Bengals loss at 1-4, Cincinnati plays the Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders for their next four games before meeting the Ravens again in Week 10. It’s possible the Bengals will have pulled themselves to a better record and within reach of a playoff spot by the time this rematch rolls around.
2. Should We Be Worried About the 49ers?
Brock Purdy had been playing some impressive football without his full complement of playmakers on offense. Christian McCaffrey has yet to suit up for San Francisco. Brandon Aiuyk has been slow to ramp up after missing much of the offseason while holding out for a new contract. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both missed time.
Everyone except McCaffrey was on the field in Week 5, and the San Francisco 49ers lost 24-23 to the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are 2-3 and, by playoff seeding with tiebreaks, are 14th in the NFC. That’s an exaggeration of where San Francisco stands, but it’s clear this is not a team running through its opponents, as was the case last season.
The loss to Arizona was San Francisco’s second in three weeks, with a lead in the fourth quarter and a late opponent comeback. In Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers peaked at a 97 percent win probability with 4:57 remaining, up 24-17 according to the Next Gen Stats model. The Rams won 27-24 in regulation.
Against the Cardinals, the 49ers only peaked at an 88 percent win probability with 6:20 left, up 23-21, but that came on a first-and-goal from the Arizona 8-yard line. The next play was a Jordan Mason fumble recovered by the Cardinals. Arizona drove down the field for a go-ahead field goal. Then, Purdy threw an interception on the ensuing drive that clinched the game for the Cardinals.
It’s not just one thing that went wrong or a bad call that flipped the game. What might be more concerning for the 49ers is it’s just a bunch of little things not working well and leading to these blown leads.
Kicker Jake Moody's Injury
The 49ers blocked a punt for a touchdown, but on the kickoff that followed, Moody attempted a tackle and was injured on the play. He did not return, and it was revealed he suffered a high ankle sprain that would keep him out for weeks.
With Moody out, Kyle Juszczyk took some warmup kicks into the net, but punter Mitch Wishnowsky took over the kicking duties while the fullback held. On the next drive, Wishnowsky kicked a 26-yard field goal.
However, on a drive in the third quarter, the 49ers faced a fourth-and-23 from the Arizona 27-yard line. That was too far for a Wishnowsky attempt, so the Niners went for it and failed with an incomplete pass. Arizona took over on downs and scored a touchdown on that following drive.
Unforced Errors
On the touchdown after the failed fourth down, the 49ers committed a roughing the passer penalty after Kyler Murray released the ball to an open Elijah Higgins.
Down four at the time of the touchdown, the Cardinals elected to use the penalty to attempt a 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line. The successful conversion put Arizona down by two points and allowed the final field goal to put it in the lead instead of tying the game.
Red Zone Woes
San Francisco reached the red zone on six of its nine drives but only came away with one touchdown. Through Week 4, the 49ers reached the red zone on 41 percent of their drives (fourth) but scored a touchdown on half of those (20th).
This might be where the 49ers miss McCaffrey the most. San Francisco has run the most red zone plays this season, and it averages -0.19 EPA per play with a 35.7 percent success rate, which ranks 25th. Last season, the 49ers had a league-high 55.3 percent success rate.
McCaffrey had a league-high 63 red zone carries with 13 rushing touchdowns, a 22.9 percent target share, and five receiving touchdowns in the red zone last season.
In a vacuum, these are all small things, but they’ve continually added up. The 2024 team's margin for error is much smaller than it was last season, and we’re seeing how little mistakes or bad breaks can turn a game. San Francisco might turn out ok, but the 49ers will have to earn it to get close to another playoff run.
3. Texans And Bills Are Flawed contenders
Entering the season, the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills were expected to be top contenders in the AFC. After a 23-20 Houston win against Buffalo in Week 5, the Texans sit at 4-1 with the Bills at 3-2.
Buffalo is still atop the AFC East and has the league's fourth-best point differential. Houston, while having just one loss, is 24th in point differential at -12. These are two flawed AFC contenders, and we saw some of the reasons for this throughout Sunday’s matchup.
Last week in 1st & 10, we wrote about how the Texans still had an early down problem, and that continued into Week 5. Houston faced an average third down of 7.2 yards to go, and that was its second-best figure of the season. On third downs, C.J. Stroud was 9-of-14 for 151 yards with a 60 percent success rate.
The Texans are 29th in EPA per play on early downs (-0.14) and fifth in EPA per play on third down (0.21).
Stroud was phenomenal in this game despite averaging -0.10 EPA per play. He made several would-be sacks disappear. He took seven hits but just one sack, with a 6.7 percent pressure-to-sack rate. Against the blitz, Stroud was 8-of-9 for 120 yards and 1.13 EPA per play.
He consistently threw with touch and anticipation. His 67-yard touchdown throw to Nico Collins was a perfectly placed ball, with Collins splitting the cornerback and deep safety.
When Collins left the game, Stroud relied on Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs ( six catches for 82 yards against his former team), but this team has more often been the quarterback bailing out the offense.
Josh Allen has often been that for the Bills but couldn’t do that against Houston. With Khalil Shakir out, Buffalo’s lack of depth at receiver showed — Mack Hollins tied Dalton Kincaid for the team lead in targets with six.
The Bills' offense felt tight without Shakir. Allen tried to hit some big plays to compensate for the lack of down-to-down consistency, but that did not work. Allen had 13 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 air yards, and he did not complete a single one.
He’s had 13 career games with an aDOT of at least 12, and the Week 5 game against the Texans was his lowest completion percentage and average depth of completion among those games.
Despite Allen’s flawed performance, the Bills were still in the game at the end but had massive errors that cost them.
First, Allen suffered what looked to be a head injury in the fourth quarter. He appeared out when his head hit the ground, but he returned for the next series. He did not complete a pass upon his return. That included three straight passes in a tie game with 32 seconds left while the Bills were backed up on their 3-yard line, and Houston had all three timeouts remaining.
Milking the clock and forcing Houston to use its timeouts should have been the course of action. It’s possible the Bills still end up barely gaining yards and punting, but that takes away any middle-of-the-field throws from Houston when the Texans get the ball back.
As it stood, the Bills killed just 25 seconds and gained no yards before a punt. Houston returned the punt 13 yards, got a 5-yard pass to the middle of the field, and called a timeout before a 59-yard field goal from Kaimi Fairbun won the game as time expired.
4. Vikings defense bails out offense
The Minnesota Vikings remain one of two undefeated teams (pending Monday Night Football). Their 23-17 win against the New York Jets in London highlighted the different ways this team could win.
To this point, the defense has been a dominating force, while the offense has been a well-schemed machine that made life easy on Sam Darnold. Only one of those stayed true across the pond.
Darnold had his worst game as a Viking, averaging -0.51 EPA per play with a 30 percent success rate. He completed just 45 percent of his passes while he had his highest aDOT of the season (13.0).
The best Minnesota offensive play was drawing defensive penalties, which were called often. On one touchdown drive in the second quarter, the Vikings benefited from two pass interference penalties and a defensive holding call.
Minnesota's offense was lost when Aaron Jones left the game with an injury. Jones paced the backfield with successful runs and was a useful outlet option in the passing game. Without him, the run game suffered, and the Vikings’ offense cratered overall.
But the defense again came through, bullying Aaron Rodgers and never letting the quarterback or Jets offense overall get settled. Early in the game, Rodgers had a third down conversion against a Minnesota blitz.
Before the snap, he saw the blitz look and called for slants to get the ball out quickly to the outside and away from the rushers. It gained eight yards on a third-and-9, which still forced the Jets to punt despite Rodgers getting a good read on the play.
Here’s the look before the snap:
Two drives later, the Vikings gave Rodgers a similar look on a third-and-6.
But instead of blitzing the seven defenders on the line, Andrew Van Ginkel dropped out into coverage and right into Rodgers' throwing lane, where he wanted to throw a slant behind the blitz.
The Vikings blitzed Rodgers on 40.4 percent of his dropbacks. By volume, Rodgers’s 23 dropbacks against the blitz were the fourth-highest of his career. Two of his top six games have been in the past two weeks.
With the constant extra rushers and pressure, Rodgers does not have enough communication and familiarity with the offense to make the types of plays he’s been used to throughout his career. He averaged -0.63 EPA per play against the blitz and had a 17.6 percent success rate when under pressure.
Passes look off-target, and Rodgers appears uncomfortable in the pocket without consistently being able to move outside of it. The Vikings did not relent or allow the Jets' offense to get any rhythm. That’s been an issue for the Jets regardless of the opponent, but it was apparent against the league’s best, most creative defense.
The Vikings have multiple paths to win games, while the Jets have struggled to find one.
5. Caleb Williams Is Heating Up
Caleb Williams had the best day of his career and continues to improve every week. Against the Panthers (caveat applied) in a 36-10 win, Williams looked comfortable and assertive in the passing game.
He averaged 10.5 yards per attempt, and his 0.35 EPA per attempt was the week's third-best.
Williams connected with DJ Moore for two touchdowns, and the receiver went for 105 yards on the day. The second touchdown to Moore showed some incredible growth and maturity from Williams in the pocket.
The Bears came out in a 2x2 set but motioned TE Cole Kmet to the right side, leaving Moore as the isolated receiver to the left. With the motion, the deep safety on the right dropped down, leaving a single-high deep safety.
After the snap, Williams stared down a vertical route from Keenan Allen to the right side, which brought the deep safety over. He then looked back to Moore and fired a strike for the score.
Williams was only pressured on 17.1 percent of his dropbacks and made plays to avoid defenders when they did come. The Bears are starting to figure out what does and doesn’t work for Williams, and this offense and the weekly improvement are a great sign for the first-overall pick.
6. How Trevor Lawrence Bounced Back
After wondering what was wrong with Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense, he had his third-best day as a passer in his career by EPA per play in Week 5.
Lawrence’s 0.40 EPA per play led all quarterbacks this week, and the Jaguars did it by blending what previously worked with some of the bigger downfield shots the offense had over-relied on in 2024.
Lawrence averaged 2.35 seconds to throw, and that rhythm allowed the quarterback to distribute the ball around efficiently. But unlike the previous season and a half, when the Jaguars used the quick game to run a static offense filled with stop routes, there was room to run after the catch.
Against the Colts, 59.6 percent of his passing yards came after the catch. That’s the eighth-highest rate in his career and the second-highest for a game when he eclipsed 250 passing yards.
With the ball out so quickly, the Jaguars eliminated the potential of pressure. He was pressured on just one drop back in the game. He was also charted with no inaccurate passes, which had been rampant in Lawrence’s game this season.
There were also big plays available, like the 85-yard touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr. in the second quarter. Thomas went vertical from the slot and was open down the sideline.
The Colts' static defense was probably the best opponent to face to get back in a groove. This game at least proved that all might not be lost for the 2024 season, though the Jaguars are still at 1-4, and any upside might be more meaningful for 2025 at best.
7. Did the Cowboys save their season?
A four-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert on a fourth-and-goal from the 4-yard line was desperately needed for the Dallas Cowboys.
With a loss, Dallas would have dropped to 2-3. While that wouldn’t have been a death sentence for the season, it would not fly for this franchise. Or maybe it would, but it would just be talked about a whole bunch.
With a game against the Detroit Lions next week, a loss to the Steelers could have put the Cowboys at 2-4 heading into a Week 7 bye. That would have been something. But the win gets Dallas to 3-2 and at least a .500 record at worst at the bye.
The game against Pittsburgh was up and down. Dak Prescott threw for more than 350 yards and two touchdowns but also had two interceptions and appeared to have a verbal disagreement with CeeDee Lamb on the sideline — or more like Lamb had a verbal disagreement with Prescott present.
Prescott averaged 0.11 EPA per play and had a 51.1 percent success rate, but the 19 points and need for the last-second touchdown to win overshadowed a relatively impressive performance.
The defense had its best day, holding Justin Fields to 4.9 yards per attempt and Najee Harris to 3.0 yards per carry. That might not mean the defense is fixed. It's still 23rd in EPA per play, but it was better than what the Cowboys had shown outside of the season opener against the Browns.
8. Player Spotlight: Xavier McKinney
There were not many big contracts given out to safeties this offseason.
That market has mostly plateaued, but the Packers signed Xavier McKinney to a four-year, $67 million contract to take charge of the back end of the secondary. McKinney has done just that. He has an interception in all five games for the Packers — he’s the first player to do that in his first five games with a new team.
He’s doing this mostly playing a post-safety role. This year, 78.4 percent of his snaps have come as a deep safety, and 39.4 percent have been as a single-high safety. The Packers have been in the middle of the pack in single-high and two-high coverages.
McKinney’s range has been a key to allowing the defense to live in both worlds.
His range from deep is incredible, and his reads on passes are key to his interception streak. Look at where he’s come from on three of his five picks.
Going back to Week 18 of the 2023 season, when he picked off Jalen Hurts and Marcus Mariota, McKinney has an interception in six straight regular season games. That ties the most for a player since 2000.
For a single season, he could tie Trevon Diggs, Brian Russell, and Doug Evans with an interception in six straight games if he picks off Kyler Murray next week.
9. Play of the day
Shoutout to Isaiah Simmons for doing his best Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner impression in Seattle. Simmons jumped the snap and blocked a would-be game-tying field goal that was returned for a touchdown and clinched a New York Giants win against the Seahawks.
Another shoutout to Dexter Lawrence and Rakeem Nunez-Roches for pushing down Seattle’s linemen to make the leap easier for Simmons. According to the NFL, “pushing down alone is not a foul, and there was no forcible contact to the head and neck,” making that play legal.
10. Deshaun Watson Isn’t Going Anywhere
“We’re not changing quarterbacks,” Kevin Stafanski said in his post-game press conference.
Cleveland lost 34-13 to Washington as Deshaun Watson again looked like the league's worst quarterback, incapable of running any type of competent offense.
At -0.36 EPA per play for the season, Watson joins Mac Jones in 2023 as the only quarterback since 2000 to have at least 150 dropbacks and worse than -0.35 EPA per play through the first five weeks of the season.
Watson continually hangs onto the ball and is now the only quarterback to be hit at least 10 times in three separate games this season. The Browns’ offensive line battling through injuries, but the quarterback makes that worse.
Each week, Watson and Amari Cooper look like it’s the first time they’ve played together. Cooper had four receptions on 10 targets in Week 5.
There’s too much invested in Watson for a benching to happen this early in the season. He still has guaranteed salaries of $46 million in each of the next two seasons. A post-June 1 cut next offseason would leave nearly $119 million in dead money on the Browns' cap while having to pay out the guaranteed salaries in cash.
The biggest on-field problem for the Browns is that they have nothing to lean into. Watson was always a strange fit for the Stenfanski under-center play-action offense, so they brought in Ken Dorsey this season to install some more empty packages and get Watson comfortable there.
Watson has been in empty on a league-high 27.6 percent of his dropbacks. On those snaps, he’s averaged -0.35 EPA per play with a 32.3 percent success rate and 4.9 yards per attempt.
Overall, he’s last in EPA per play and success rate among qualified quarterbacks this season.
It won't get better, and nothing will change.
NFL Analysis
10/7/24
7 min read
2025 NFL Draft Stock Report: Drew Allar Enters First-Round Discussion
So much for Week 6 being a weak slate. Between top-15 upsets and Miami barely surviving the Calgorithm in the early hours of Sunday morning, college football never disappoints. Some stars improved their 2025 NFL Draft stock during the action, while others fell short of their expected level of play.
We have the stats to go with film takeaways from Week 6, and the time is now for players to reach their peak performance. October forces the cream to rise, and we're continuing to track the nation's top 300 or so players.
Let's examine the three athletes who pushed their 2025 NFL Draft stock up and those who fell.
CFB Week 6 Stock Up Players
This week was so loaded that we needed to name a couple of other risers who dominated the competition. Here are three more players who caught our eyes in Week 6.
Honorable Mentions
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt
Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State
Jack Sawyer, EDGE, Ohio State
📈 Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Stats: 17/24, 237 yards, 1 touchdown
The 2025 quarterback class continues to evolve, and the most mercurial passer of the bunch is Drew Allar. Some evaluators will love his traditional archetype, standing 6-foot-5, 238 pounds, and possessing a cannon on his right shoulder. But accuracy and consistency haven't been his friend until this fall.
Allar has continued to avoid turnovers well, boasting a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 38-to-3. The biggest difference in 2024 so far has been reflected in his completion rate, which has jumped from 59.9 percent to 70.8 percent this season. Week 6 was the best example of Allar's improvement.
Drew Allar is doing more translatable things at the QB position than a lot of your favorite 2025 prospects.
Really good player who should absolutely be in QB1 conversations in an iffy class. pic.twitter.com/88oS24MsH3
The ball is coming out quicker and on the money more often than we've seen in previous years. With his arm strength, which will rank among the NFL's best as soon as he's in the league, putting the football into the chest of his receiver can produce a top-10 offense.
The best part is that Allar logged a season-high three big-time throws while setting a season-best 2.57 average time-to-throw rate. That balance between quickly processing the field and delivering impact throws is difficult, and if it continues, Allar can be a first-round quarterback.
📈 Ricky White, WR, UNLV
Stats: 10 receptions, 135 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 blocked punt
Friday night's tussle between Syracuse and UNLV was terrific and highlighted several future NFL playmakers. UNLV senior WR Ricky White III almost dragged the Rebels to an overtime win, catching 10 passes for the second straight week. He set a new season-high with 135 yards, including a 53-yarder.
White's profile is perfect for the NFL. At 6-foot-1, 190 pounds, he can play inside or out and win on a variety of sharp-breaking routes. His touchdown came on a slant where he cooked the cornerback off the line of scrimmage and waltzed into the endzone with room to spare.
He also blocked a punt, showing off the type of impact and playmaking that will guarantee his roster spot at the next level. With plenty of room to rise into Day 2, White can continue climbing our receiver rankings.
The 2025 offensive tackle class is good but unsettled. With NFL offenses struggling to overcome defensive adjustments that force teams to march down the field without big plays, there's more focus on consistency along the offensive line. Not having a solid tackle can tank an entire offense.
NC State's Anthony Belton has been one of the best pass-blockers in the country. Outside of one poor showing against Clemson, the 6-foot-6, 336-pounder has shown more than capable of playing early in his career and continuing to develop. This week was his best outing yet.
Belton played a whopping 76 snaps and graded as PFF's second-best pass-blocker this week. It's the second straight game he has not allowed a quarterback pressure, and he has seemingly learned how to deal with speed rush attempts better after Clemson found success getting into his massive frame.
Day 2 is looking much more realistic for Belton as the season continues.
CFB Week 6 Stock Down Players
📉 Noah Fifita, QB, Arizona
Stats: 28/49, 301 yards, 2 interceptions, 2 sacks taken
The explosive offense that made Arizona so fun in 2023 has not found its footing under new head coach Brent Brennan. Wildcats QB Noah Fifita has had less time to throw without 2024 first-round tackle Jordan Morgan, and the unit hasn't found the same rhythm that defined it in their breakout season.
Noah Fifita: “I feel like every time we got something going, I would make a mistake or two that stalled the drive. So, I take full responsibility.” @AllSportsTucson pic.twitter.com/j0NEne3p9J
Fifita, once viewed as a possible first-round pick despite his short 5-foot-10 stature, now looks nowhere near ready for the NFL. Instead of being a quick-game expert, Fifita has seen his time to throw swell from 2.55 to 3.18. This has led to more turnover-worthy throws, a lower completion rate, more pressures allowed, and vastly fewer sustained drives.
It's possible that this season will prove to be a stepping stone for Fifita's development in the future, but his performance against Texas Tech ended all discussion about whether he's ready for the 2025 class. It was his worst outing yet as he held the ball, uncertain about what he saw and where he was supposed to go.
It was surprising to see Kansas CB Cobee Bryant return to school for his senior season after a solid 2023 campaign. The 6-foot-1, 175-pounder likely expected this season to go much differently than it has for the program, as the Jayhawks are 1-5 despite starting as a top-25 team. Bryant's play, at least in Week 6, has followed suit with the rest of the team.
Arizona State attacked Bryant, drawing three penalties and benefitting from two missed tackles. It was an uncharacteristically sloppy game for the off-man corner, who had just one penalty and zero missed tackles entering the evening. On the season, teams have only completed 10-of-20 attempts for 181 yards his way.
The 2025 cornerback class is far from defined after its top five, and Bryant should compete for a Day 2 selection. However, repeating this type of panicked performance will instill fear into teams that his play might not be reliable enough to invest in.
A gifted vertical target who caught 63 receptions for 1,022 yards and six scores last year, Elic Ayomanor is best known for torching Travis Hunter in their 2023 matchup. While Stanford is far from a powerhouse passing program, Ayomanor has not recaptured any of that dominance this year. He's caught 48 percent of targets for only 317 yards and three scores.
His outing against Virginia Tech was a good chance to see how he'd look against an athletic defense, and Ayomanor barely stood out. He's seen his snaps in the slot go down against better competition, so hopes of him being a power slot in the NFL appear gone. His yards after the catch have also dipped, so Ayomanor's best value appears to be at the catch point.
The good news is he's still valuable in that role. However, the market for 6-foot-2, 210-pounders without blazing speed and versatility is usually limited to Day 3, and often don't have a ton of success in the NFL.
Entering Sunday night’s action, a season-high nine teams scored at least 30 points in Week 5. That’s a rather significant mark, especially considering that four teams were on a bye this weekend, too. Whatever league-wide passing issues that plagued the early weeks seem to be behind us.
Nothing but great news for fantasy football!
This week's waiver wire is plentiful, but some complicating factors make choosing certain players difficult. For example, Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams looked fantastic vs. the Carolina Panthers, but his team will land on a bye in Week 7. Minnesota Vikings RB Ty Chandler might have a window to overtake teammate Aaron Jones, who injured his hamstring on Sunday in London vs. the New York Jets. Still, they won’t play again until after their upcoming bye. That might be enough time for Jones to get healthy.
But now that the honorable mentions are out of the way, let’s glance at some names prospective managers should take chances on ahead of Week 6 action:
Fantasy Football Week 6 Waiver Wire Adds
Joe Flacco, QB, Indianapolis Colts
ESPN Rostership: 5.4 percent
Yahoo Rostership: 7 percent
The late-career renaissance of Joe Flacco continues to be one of the most incredible occurrences in all of sports.
The 39-year-old journeyman hurled 33 completions on 44 attempts for 359 passing yards and a trio of scores in Sunday’s narrow loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Should typical starter Anthony Richardson remain out with his hip and oblique injuries, it will be challenging to shy away from Flacco as a streaming option in Week 6 vs. the Tennessee Titans.
In case you forgot, the former Super Bowl winner started five games for the Cleveland Browns at the end of last season and averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game in four-point per passing touchdown scoring, tossing 13 passing touchdowns in that span.
Let’s park this conversation in Jacksonville for a while. The following two players on this list are, in my estimation, the two top waiver adds that everyone should be going after...
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN Rostership: 9.5 percent
Yahoo Rostership: 22 percent
This second-year back is quietly putting together a strong stretch of production to open the season and could be winning the backfield from his big-name teammate.
Tank Bigsby racked up 103 rushing yards and a pair of end zone punches on 13 carries against the Colts, including this tremendous thundering scamper in the third quarter:
The former Auburn workhorse now occupies a 39.6 percent touch opportunity (carries + targets) share over the past two weeks and has even out-gained his teammate Travis Etienne Jr. in the rushing yards department (273 to Ettiene Jr.’s 231, per FantasyData) on the year as a whole.
The last thing anyone wants to do is fall for the classic tale of the “fresh legs syndrome,” a colloquial phrase used to describe a running back seeming to have more burst and effectiveness when viewing their numbers through the lens of limited exposure, but Bigsby deserves a shoutout.
Why? Because Bigsby was the Jags’ lead runner in Week 5:
The gap between the two in point per reception (PPR) scoring average (8.6 for Bigsby, 11.6 for Etienne Jr.) is relatively small as it is. If this changing of the guard is real, fantasy managers should immediately scoop a possible starter off waivers.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
ESPN Rostership: 34.9 percent
Yahoo Rostership: 40 percent
I highlighted Josh Downs in my Week 5 rankings as a sneaky play off the wire, provided Flacco was under center.
Hopefully, those of you out there took that advice because the 2023 second-round pick netted team-highs in catches (nine) and targets (12) against the Jaguars, resulting in 69 receiving yards and a robust 15.9 PPR points.
The slender slot receiver is making a solid impact on Indianapolis’ offense since returning from an early-season high-ankle sprain in Week 3, leading the team with 14.4 PPR points per game in that span.
It’s justifiable to be nervous about adding Downs, given that Richardson will eventually return to being the starting signal-caller. However, the ball is coming his way with great frequency.
Now is the time to remedy the mistake of leaving Downs on the waiver wire, assuming it isn’t too late for you.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
ESPN Rostership: 12.3 percent
Yahoo Rostership: 13 percent
The Arizona Cardinals’ offense has certainly experienced its share of ups and downs to date. However, Sunday’s 24-23 upset victory against the San Francisco 49ers might just be the spark they need to establish greater consistency.
One of the standout performers from this Week 5 contest is second-year WR Michael Wilson, who led the team across the board in targets (six), catches (five), and receiving yards (78) in the NFC West divisional effort.
The odds of Wilson continuing to finish games with more production than rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. are relatively low, but that’s not to say the former Stanford standout is an afterthought. In reality, Wilson’s role is actually becoming more prominent.
Over the past three weeks, Wilson is averaging 7.3 targets and 60 receiving yards per game. From a fantasy perspective, he’s churned out 10.7 PPR points per game in that window— not bad at all!
It’ll be worth looking for Wilson’s name as you make claims later in the week.
Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets
ESPN Rostership: 37.2 percent
Yahoo Rostership: 30 percent
It's time to wrap things up with a tight end that’s flown a bit under the radar in 2024.
Did you know Tyler Conklin ranks sixth in targets (27) among tight ends this season? Well, now you do. It’s worth mentioning that most of this work has come within the last three weeks, but that fact is emblematic of why he’s still broadly available in leagues.
Zooming in on this three-week window of relevance, Conklin is averaging more PPR points per game (10.5) than players like Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (7.9) and Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (9.4), just to name a couple.
This surge in production from Conklin is due to his ability to nestle himself as the second-leading target in his offense (7.7 targets per game) ahead of WR Allen Lazard (7.0) and the surehandedness required to catch five passes per game.
Highlighting this is crucial because, unlike trying to chase other tight ends who explode one week and then disappear, we’re talking about a player in Conklin who hasn’t scored a touchdown this season.
Yes, all this fantasy production comes without a random spike because Conklin found the end zone. We covet players like this in fantasy.
Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) explains what it would take for the Browns to remove Deshaun Watson as their starting QB and he thinks Watson will never be simply “benched”.
Like this clip? Catch the full episode of NFL Spotlight Monday-Friday wherever you get your podcasts: listen.the33rdteam.com/nflspotlight
NFL Analysis
10/6/24
4 min read
2025 NFL Draft: Updated Order, Picks For Every Team After Week 5
The 2025 NFL Draft isn't for quite some time, but it's never a bad time to peak at the updated draft order. This story will also include each team's draft capital and will be updated throughout the season.