NFL Analysis
10/11/24
7 min read
5 NFL Rookies Falling Short Of Early Expectations in 2024
We are only through five weeks of the NFL season, but it’s clear that the 2024 draft class will be a good one.
Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are as good as advertised, and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are already superstars. But which rookies have left a lot to be desired through the first five weeks of the year?
Here are five NFL rookies who have fallen short of expectations so far to start their careers:
5 Rookies Falling Short of Expectations
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts 
Some in the scouting community believed that Adonai Mitchell was the fourth-best receiver in this class behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. It’s not hard to understand why, either, after he led the Big 12 in touchdown receptions (11) and ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He is one of the most athletic receivers in the league, yet his athleticism hasn’t resulted in production.
Mitchell has appeared in all five games for the Colts and has received 20 targets. But he’s only managed to turn those 20 targets into six receptions for 70 yards. And last week, there were multiple instances where Mitchell made “business decisions” on a few plays rather than attacking the football.
Mitchell has played a good number of snaps (101), but he is clearly the fourth receiver on the roster behind Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce. However, the recent injury to Pittman should open up more opportunities and snaps for the second-round pick from Texas.
Right now, he is an athlete playing football, and his lack of attention to detail has significantly hurt the offense. This has been an excellent wide receiver class, but Mitchell’s lack of production is noticeable.
Tyler Guyton, LT, Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton’s play at left tackle has been exactly what you would expect for a raw prospect who is making the switch from right tackle to left tackle. He’s had his moments, but there have been far too many mistakes and miscues to this point. None of that should be surprising, but the reason why Guyton appears on this list is because of the absurd expectations put on him as the No. 30 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Cowboys have had quite the track record with first-round offensive linemen. Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Tyler Smith were all fantastic as rookies, and Martin was even a first-team All-Pro selection in 2014. The belief is that if the Cowboys draft an offensive lineman in Round 1, they are destined to make multiple Pro Bowls right away. That still may be the case for Guyton, but he’s off to a slow start and that has Cowboys fans panicked.
Guyton played extremely well in the preseason, which only raised expectations. Now, he’s struggling with penalties (eight penalties, six accepted for 60 yards) five of which were holding. Has he been awful? Absolutely not, but he hasn’t played to the level many people expected out of the gate.
No one should panic regarding Guyton and his development, as this is how offensive tackles develop. They need the reps and have to find ways to get better in the game. Those who expected Guyton to play at a level anywhere near Tyron Smith are surely disappointed after a few weeks.
Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions
Many considered Terrion Arnold the best cornerback in the 2024 NFL Draft because of his experience and pro-readiness coming out of Alabama. While Quinyon Mitchell was the better athlete and had more ball skills, Arnold was someone Nick Saban trusted to play as a freshman, playing him in the slot and on the outside.
However, Arnold’s had a rough start through four games and teams are starting to pick on him. He has allowed just 5.7 yards per target on 29 targets, which is well above the league average. Still, he’s been called for eight penalties for 118 yards. He had three penalties alone against the Seahawks, as he’s been far too physical.
One of Arnold's biggest problems is that he “panics” when the ball is in the air, and his first reaction is to grab the receiver. That can be a death knell for cornerbacks, especially against top receivers who know how to sell contact.
Arnold is a young player, and the Lions have only played four games, so it’s safe to assume his play will improve. Detroit has a tough upcoming schedule, including a matchup against CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.
The Lions need their No. 1 pick at cornerback to step up, or opponents will attack him even more than we’ve seen so far.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
The 2024 draft was not a strong class at the running back position, but Trey Benson had many fans in the pre-draft process.
He was highly efficient at Florida State, and his size/athleticism combo was off the charts. Benson was picked near the top of Round 3, and the expectation was that he would share the backfield with James Conner early in the season before eventually taking over that job.
That hasn’t happened yet, as he’s hardly seen the field. Benson has played just 43 offensive snaps through five games, racking up 81 rushing yards on 25 attempts (3.2 yards per carry). He has the second-most touches in the backfield, but Conner is playing nearly 68 percent of the offensive snaps.
When Connor isn’t on the field, it’s Emari Demercado who is getting most of the passing-down work.
You certainly shouldn’t give up on Benson. It’s clear that Arizona likes him, but he isn’t taking over this backfield anytime soon, as long as Conner stays healthy. You would hope that an early third-round pick would have more of an impact than this, but that just hasn’t been the case through five weeks. And it’s not hard to understand when you see just how much more effective Conner has been than Benson in these games.
Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Injuries can have a big impact on a rookie’s performance out of the gate. Some players get injured and camp and are never quite the same all year long. That could be the case for Roman Wilson, a third-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wilson suffered a high-ankle injury during the first padded practice and missed the rest of camp.
However, Wilson was a full participant in practice on Sept. 19 and was taken off the injury report heading into the team’s Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Still, he has yet to take the field. He’s been a healthy scratch in each of the Steelers' last three games, and that is highly discouraging, considering Pittsburgh's lack of weapons.
The expectations coming out of the draft were that Wilson would be the starting slot receiver in Pittsburgh right away and would function as the No. 3 receiver until he beat out Van Jefferson for the No. 2 job. But the fact that he can’t even get a helmet on gameday and is now behind players like Scotty Miller, Calvin Austin, and Brandon Johnson doesn’t bode well for him.
We’ll see if Wilson can get on the field and have any impact in the future, but it’s been a really rocky start for the former Michigan Wolverine.
There is no doubt that Pittsburgh fans are highly disappointed by his lack of usage this year.
