NFL Analysis
9/11/24
21 min read
2024 NFL Week 2 QB Power Rankings: Kyler Murray Enters Top 10, Kirk Cousins Slips
It’s easy to overreact to Week 1. We finally saw everyone play after waiting for months. With that in mind, we’ll try not to get carried away in these rankings.
The biggest changes came from some negative play that dropped players down after getting visual confirmation rather than players jumping up from one good game. That will be common for how shifts in these rankings will work for most of the season.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings. Malik Willis and Justin Fields will enter the rankings this week.
These rankings are based on a mixture of film, advanced stats, and cap hits. For the way we’re ranking quarterbacks this year, we will ask how much a quarterback plays into his team’s ability to win games — how much easier does the quarterback make things for his offense?
Does the quarterback create the structure for the offense? Does he make the coach's job harder by having to scheme around him? Is he just a product of what surrounds him? These are the types of questions we’re trying to answer, and they will determine the order of this list.
Here are the rankings for Week 2.
NFL Week 2 QB Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs 
Last Week: 1 
Kansas City’s Week 1 wasn’t perfect, but it showed what this offense can be and that reality could produce the best statistical season we’ve seen from Patrick Mahomes in a while.
Mahomes is patient enough to sit and take the crossers to Rashee Rice as long as they’re open, and he is willing to throw deep when the opportunity arises.
The touchdown to Xavier Worthy was on a blown coverage, but on last year’s Chiefs, there wasn’t anyone worth blowing a coverage for.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
Last Week: 2
Josh Allen had one of those games when he took over for the Bills. While the offense was leaning on the run early and Arizona controlled the clock, Allen barely threw the ball in the first quarter. Allen balanced safe and quick throws in rhythm while scrambling on 16.7 percent of dropbacks.
The opening contest was a feeling-out game for what this offense could be with the ball spread around. Allen found success underneath to Khalil Shakir and connected on a deep back-shoulder throw down the sideline to Keon Coleman.
Those connections should grow while Allen can win with his legs to keep the offense moving.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Last Week: 3
Thursday night’s opener was one of those games when Lamar Jackson becomes a victim of his own success.
Maybe the two quarterbacks ranked above him here would have kept the Ravens in that game and prevented it from being a blowout — I wouldn’t expect anyone below him to do so — but because he kept it close, the “failure” at the end was harped on more than it would have been otherwise.
The Ravens won’t sustain an offense relying so heavily on Jackson running and searching for contact — though this shouldn’t be a long-term concern since Jackson has special spatial awareness in the open field — but he’ll keep the Ravens in more games than they should be given how the rest of the offense played.
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams 
Last Week: 4
By the end of the Week 1 loss to the Lions, Matthew Stafford was playing with two new linemen and another out of position. In 22 snaps with the offensive line combination, Stafford averaged 0.37 EPA per play with a 50 percent success rate.
He constantly opened up passing lanes with his arm angles and worked pre-snap to set those passes up. Stafford is a better mental manipulator than he is often given credit for, and that showed when he succeeded on passes to Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson outside of Cooper Kupp.
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys 
Last Week: 5
After the Cowboys’ first scoring drive, capped with a back-peddling touchdown throw to an open Brandin Cooks, Dak Prescott was mostly in self-preservation mode.
Prescott's final numbers were mostly fine, but he spent most of the game getting the ball out quickly to avoid Myles Garrett and the Cleveland pass rush — no team had a faster get-off than Cleveland (0.71) in Week 1 per Next Gen Stats — especially after the first snap resulted in a sack from interior pressure.
6. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 
Last Week: 6
C.J. Stroud picked up where he left off.
He nearly threw a bad pick that was erased by a penalty, but outside of that, he was accurate and decisive. Against a fast Colts pass rush, he took a few sacks and worked the short area of the field more often (59.4 percent of throws between 1-10 air yards) but also found a rhythm with all three receivers.
Finding some success in the run game also eased the load on Stroud to make plays on third down. Because of that, he didn’t have to big-play hunt as much as he had late in his rookie season. There were still some of those throws, though, like the 55-yard completion to Nico Collins.
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 
Last Week: 7
Joe Burrow rarely looks comfortable in September—with years of preseason injuries, he typically uses the first games as a ramp-up period—but it’s worth monitoring how Burrow looked uncomfortable in the Patriots' loss.
Tee Higgins was out, and Ja’Marr Chase was limited, so the offense was not fully functional. However, Burrow was also passing on 1-on-1 shots down the outside, which he typically feasts on when given the opportunity. He only threw 27.4 percent of his attempts past the sticks, the second-lowest rate in Week 1.
His 3.1 percent explosive pass rate was the fourth-lowest of his career, though two of the lower games are Week 1 of 2020 (2.6 percent) and Week 1 of 2023 (zero).
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers 
Last Week: 8
Week 1 of 2024 was more of the same for Justin Herbert. He did his best but could not completely overcome the supporting cast. Per ESPN, the Chargers’ offensive line was 30th in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate, and it looked it. Herbert navigated pressure and was only sacked once but was hit five times.
As chemistry improves with Ladd McConkey, Herbert could have a go-to receiver who makes life a bit easier. However, the other receiving options were still clunky, especially when Quentin Johnston was targeted outside.
9. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 
Last Week: 12 
Kyler Murray had a tough task against a Buffalo defense that looked more explosive along the defensive line than in the past. Greg Rosseau was all over and the Bills pressured the quarterback consistently. If there was a downside, it was the four sacks Murray took.
But he still looked more comfortable as a passer than he did returning from injury last season, and he had a number of key third down scrambles that kept the offense on the field.
Buffalo also made sure Marvin Harison Jr. would not be a factor, so Murray spent a lot of the game funneling passes to Greg Dortch and the running backs.
10. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles 
Last Week: 10
It was an uneven performance from Jalen Hurts in Brazil. There were a few decisions that could have gone much worse for the Eagles, on top of his two interceptions. Both picks had Hurts a bit late processing and failing to account for defenders who could come into the play.
Hurts was a tick slow throughout the game, including when he was running. His scrambling and some of the designed runs were not as effective, and his movement is something to monitor going forward.
There were also a handful of nice throws, and the offense opened up more throwing lanes and used motion motion to create space. It’s easy to believe Hurts will look better with more time and comfort in the offense.
11. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins 
Last Week: 11
Tua Tagovailoa only had a 36.6 percent success rate in Week 1, his second-lowest rate under Mike McDaniel after the Week 14 meeting against the Chargers in 2022, which provided the first blueprint for slowing down the Miami offense.
The Jaguars played a crazy amount of man coverage (66.2 percent), which often disrupted Miami’s offensive timing, but the second-reaction plays were there. Tagovailoa averaged 0.49 EPA per play on 12 plays that went over three seconds. He had a miss that could have been a touchdown to Tyreek Hill in the first quarter, but had the long touchdown to Hill later in the game and also hit Jaylen Waddle on a deep pass.
It wasn’t the fast start we’ve seen from Miami in past years, but it was also encouraging that the offense survived a defense that used many different looks to slow the passing game down.
12. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Last Week: 13
The duality of Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense was on display in the opener. Jacksonville came out with heavy play-action, which allowed Lawrence time in the pocket and the ability to push the ball.
Lawrence was 9-of-14 for 125 yards and a beautiful touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr. in the first half. He averaged 0.35 EPA per play with a 10.9-yard average depth of target.
But in the second half, the protection started to crumble, and the Dolphins pressured Lawrence on 44.4 percent of his dropbacks. He had a 22.2 percent success rate in the second half, missing some throws on third down and taking two sacks on his final two dropbacks.
As has been the case with Lawrence, the flashes were there, but the offense could not sustain them.
13. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks 
Last Week: 14
Seattle's offense couldn’t have started much worse in Week 1. Geno Smith was sacked on his first dropback, then hit and threw an interception on his second. The Seahawks also took two safeties when backed up on their goal line.
As the game went on, things opened up a bit for Smith and the Seattle offense. After -0.93 EPA per play and a 33.3 percent success rate in the first half, Smith had 0.34 EPA per play and a 56.4 success rate in the second.
The interior of the offensive line was an issue, and the Broncos blitzed on 46 percent of Smith’s dropbacks. Still, Smith adjusted to find success as the game went on.
14. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers 
Last Week: 16
Brock Purdy will continually be the toughest player to rank throughout the season, but this still feels like the right area. After a bit of a slow start, Purdy had a typical game for his tenure with the 49ers.
He benefited from some open throws — on intermediate throws, just 12.5 percent came with a tight window, one of the lowest rates in the league for a quarterback who threw more than five such passes — and he got good offensive line play, which was a big change from 2023.
When Purdy is kept clean, we know he can hit the open targets. His best throw could have been a touchdown to Brandon Aiyuk, but it was dropped.
15. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets 
Last Week: 15
There were flashes of good Aaron Rodgers in this game, including a few throws to Garrett Wilson. Rodgers is also still king of the free play, which resulted in a touchdown pass to Allen Lazard.
The Jets offense was still uneven. Rodgers was not pinpoint accurate, and anyone outside of Wilson struggled to get open consistently. He also hurried up his process, with 2.33 seconds to throw, and 95.5 percent of his dropbacks came in the pocket to avoid a 49ers pass rush that was getting home when it had the time.
That might be how Rodgers mitigates potential pressure instead of running around and extending plays.
16. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions 
Last Week: 17
The Rams pressured Jared Goff early, but the more the Lions attacked, the more worn out that pass rush got. That helped Goff later in the game.
When the Rams didn’t get pressure, the Lions still had a game plan of getting the ball out quickly. Goff averaged 2.33 seconds to throw and 1.3 air yards per completion on attempts without pressure.
Having a vertical element will help, as the deep touchdown to Jameson Williams came with a defender closing in. Goff has never been shy of taking hits, but having deep throws at his disposal instead of firing into traffic in the middle of the field could be a game-changer.
17. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts 
Last Week: 19
Anthony Richardson’s game against Houston is whatever you want to make of it. There were highlight throws, and there were some easy misses.
Having those deep throws available gives Richardson a bigger margin for error than it would a different quarterback who completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Add in the running, and Richardson provides value for an offense to build around.
18. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Last Week: 20
There was a deeper dive into Mayfield’s performance in the 1st & 10 column this week.
Overall, Mayfield kept his pocket presence improvement from last season, as he mitigated pressure and found answers down the field. He was calm and confident, which is a great sign for the rest of 2024.
19. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints 
Last Week: 22
Derek Carr is on probationary interest watch. There are usually one or two games a season when Carr decides he’s going to rip some balls down the field, and he looks like a changed quarterback. However, this does not change who Carr is as a player over a full season.
What could change this year is that Carr is in a new offense that he looked in total command of during the opening win against the Panthers. We could also have a “it was against the Panthers” caveat here.
But Carr went to the deep shot to Rashid Shaheed early and later had an extended play touchdown where he was confidently directing traffic to get something open in the end zone.
The Saints have the Cowboys in Week 2, and if Carr’s confidence continues, he’ll have our attention.
20. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons 
Last Week: 18 
It was not a great day for Kirk Cousins. Coming off his midseason Achilles tear, it looked like Cousins couldn’t move in the pocket. The Falcons used a ton of shotgun and did not run a single snap of play-action.
That’s not a Cousins game plan.
Being a statue in the pocket is fine if there are other parts of the offense that open up. Goff doesn’t move often, but his play-action and willingness to throw to the middle of the field give Detroit’s offense an identity.
That wasn’t there for Atlanta. Maybe that will change later in the year, but it was a rough start. He’s going to stay down here until we can see a bit more movement or more control of his current state.
21. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings 
Last Week: 26
We got our first look at Sam Darnold in the Kevin O’Connell offense, throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. What we saw was a quarterback who can get to the open receiver and the plays created will be enough to make up for some lapses in judgment.
Darnold had one bad pick, but it didn’t matter because everything else was in rhythm and worked as designed.
The Giants might be one of the league’s worst defenses — there was barely pressure created outside of Dexter Lawrence — but there was a lot to like about how Darnold played early and how this offense could structurally support good production without the quarterback having to do too much to elevate it.
22. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots 
Last Week: 23
Jacoby Brissett did what he needed to do as the Patriots’ opening-day starter. He took seven hits behind a shaky offensive line but was only sacked once. He averaged 2.93 seconds to throw, which put him in a bit of danger, but it was also necessary to let receivers get open.
He didn’t add much to the offense. Brissett threw 83 percent of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and only a third of his passes went past the sticks, but his biggest benefit was avoiding negative plays.
His 46.9 percent success rate was admirable, given the circumstances.
23. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears 
Last Week: 30
After flashing some of the out-of-structure big plays that made him such an exciting prospect during the preseason, first-overall pick Caleb Williams looked like he was catching up to the speed of the NFL in his debut.
Williams had 72.4 percent of his dropbacks come within 2.5 seconds of the snap. But even with that quick game, he sprayed passes and rarely looked comfortable. When he did try to create, it didn’t go well, either.
On dropbacks of three or more seconds, Williams was 1-for-6 for 11 yards with a 15.2 aDOT and -0.74 EPA per play. Overall, he finished with -0.47 EPA per play, the third-lowest of the week.
Still, the Bears won 24-17 thanks to an aggressive defense that forced three turnovers, including a pick-6 and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. That’s part of the optimism around Chicago that this team can be good on both sides of the ball, and it gave the rookie a win he wouldn’t have gotten otherwise.
24. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders 
Last Week: 31
By straight stats, Jayden Daniels had the best game of the rookies, but most of his success in the loss to the Bucs was from scrambling. He completed 70.8 percent of his passes, but his average depth of completion was 1.8 yards, and 87.5 percent of his passes were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
A lot of that has to do with Kliff Kingbury's horizontal offense, and part of it was facing a Todd Bowles defense that blitzed 42.4 percent of the time.
Daniels had four runs of 10 or more yards and put up 0.31 EPA per play on the ground thanks to two rushing touchdowns, though both came late in the game with Washington trailing. He scrambled on 21.2 percent of his dropbacks but also had eight designed runs.
The scrambles should come down, but the running should continue to be an effective part of his game, combined with a passing game that could look more normal against another defense in his next start.
25. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos 
Last Week: 32
Bo Nix had the roughest outing of the three rookies. Nix never looked settled, rushed his process, and forced throws. Nix had 3.3 yards per attempt on 42 passes. That YPA mark is tied for the sixth-lowest in a game with at least 40 pass attempts since 2000.
Without any downfield threat, the Seahawks sat and drove on shorter routes. That could have led to many more interceptions than the two Nix ended up throwing.
The Seahawks ended up with six passes defended, and Nix threw into tight coverage on 19 percent of his throws, marks lower than one would expect from watching the game.
26. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers 
Last Week: N/A
Justin Fields started for Russell Wilson in the opener, and the Steelers are preparing to start him again in Week 2 as Wilson recovers from a calf injury.
The Fields we saw for Pittsburgh was pretty close to the Fields we’ve seen throughout his career as a processor. He had the longest time to throw in the league (3.14 seconds), but this time it came on shorter passes. Just 17.1 percent of Fields’s passes went beyond the sticks.
There were a lot of throws to the short outside area and nothing to the middle of the field. That could have been a Falcons-specific quirk, staying away from Jessie Bates, but there wasn’t some new quarterback behind center.
Fields still probably has the upside to be the starter of preference over a hobbled Wilson but not enough to really be excited about after Week 1.
27. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders 
Last Week: 27
Gardner Minshew completed 75.8 percent of his passes, but 72.7 percent of his attempts were under 10 air yards. While that high rate of completions can work — that’s what the Broncos are hoping for with Bo Nix — mistakes also have to be limited, and Minshew made a few.
He was sacked four times, one on a play when the ball just slipped out of his hands, and the Chargers scooped it up. Luckily, it was not returned for a touchdown, and the Raiders held the Chargers to a field goal. Some of his worst plays were when he tried to scramble and came up short of the first down.
Minshew was fairly good when throwing to the intermediate level, but that wasn’t enough to carry the offense without positives elsewhere.
28. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans 
Last Week: 21
Will Levis' worst tendencies showed up against the Bears.
He had little awareness in the pocket, which led to a ton of hits. When he tried to do too much, he ended up making things worse, which led to a pick-6 to Tyrique Stevenson.
We wondered if his pocket presence flaw would be too much to overcome, and it was in Week 1. Until we see better command, it’s hard to buy into the upside his arm might bring.
29. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers 
Last Week: 25
Throwing an interception on his first attempt was not the start Bryce Young was looking for in Year 2. It didn’t get much better from there.
There was an effort to push the ball down the field, but Young might have gotten carried away — just 46.7 percent of Young attempts were within 10 air yards, second-lowest to Anthony Ricardson. He had a 12.9-yard aDOT but also had the highest rate of inaccurate passes.
Only 3.3 percent of Young’s passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage. No team should want to build an offense around that, but for a quarterback who can get jittery, having some of those easy throws could be nice to get him in rhythm. Young was off, often trying to do too much.
30. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 
Last Week: 28
Daniel Jones just doesn’t have the timing or pocket presence to carry out a traditional offense. Whenever the Giants try to run a dropback passing game, Jones invites pressure and throws into tight windows.
The Vikings didn’t blitz nearly as much as they did last season and still had Jones confused and struggling to find openings.
The Giants started the game by trying to get a bunch of short passes out of the way to get the offense going, but Jones couldn’t hit them. He ended with the league’s worst completion percentage over expectation at -17.3 percent, per Next Gen Stats.
31. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns 
Last Week: 29
Deshaun Watson started the game with one of the worst halves of football we’ve seen in a decade.
It didn’t get much better. Everything Watson has been during his Cleveland tenure was what showed up on Sunday. He’s not comfortable in the pocket. Doesn’t have the feel to throw touch passes. The game is not slowing down for him in ideal circumstances.
Then, Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush wrecked the game, totaling 17 quarterback hits.
32: Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers 
Last Week: N/A
Malik Willis goes to the bottom, as he’s expected to get the start for Jordan Love.
In Willis’s brief playing time in the regular season, he’s looked like Justin Fields without the exciting plays. There’s a tendency to hold onto the ball and not read the field all that well.
