NFL Analysis
1/25/24
3 min read
2024 NFL Conference Championships: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches
Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat.
Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.
To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season.
Here’s our look at Conference Championship weekend.
Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down decision ranks are based on the head coach’s history of matching our model regarding what to do on fourth down over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.
Conference Championship MATCHUPS
AFC: Chiefs vs. Ravens
| Sunday, 3 p.m. | |||||||
| Team | Pass | Rush | Rec | Block | Run D | Pass Rush | Pass Cov |
| Chiefs | 5 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 8 |
| Ravens | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 3 |
Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 29th, Ravens 24th
While Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes will garner a majority of the attention before this matchup, it is the defense and running games where we see our biggest mismatches.
>>READ: Jackson-Mahomes Next QB Rivalry
Both teams have had stout defenses all year, but each can be exposed against the run.
The Baltimore Ravens especially have a big mismatch in this area as their third-ranked rush offense and 10th-ranked offensive line should find production against the Kansas City Chiefs’ 22nd-ranked run defense.
The Ravens also have a big advantage when rushing the passer, which will be vital for disrupting Mahomes’ comfort level. The Ravens rank fifth in Pass Rush Total Points Per Play, while the Chiefs’ offensive line grades out in the bottom quartile of the league.
NFC: Lions vs. 49ers
| Sunday, 6:30 p.m. | |||||||
| Team | Pass | Rush | Rec | Block | Run D | Pass Rush | Pass Cov |
| Lions | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| 49ers | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 7 |
Fourth-down decisions: Lions 9th, 49ers 13th
The biggest mismatch in this game comes in favor of the Detroit Lions and their running game. The Lions have the ninth-ranked rush offense and sixth-best offensive line by Total Points per play, which should prove advantageous against the San Francisco 49ers’ 21st-ranked run defense.
San Francisco is not without its advantages, though. The 49ers receiving corps ranks top in the entire league, while Detroit’s pass coverage unit ranks 12th. Deebo Samuel’s injury is a major factor to monitor, as being without him could help close this gap. Still, the 49ers have many more top pass-catching options in Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
This article was written by Jeremy Percy.
