NFL Analysis
August 21, 2024
15 min read
Predicting Every NFL Division Winner Entering 2024 Season
It’s a virtual given in today’s NFL that about half of the previous season’s division champions won’t repeat. That was the case last season when only the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers defended their division crowns.
Overall, there were six new playoff teams last season. From 2021 to 2022, there also were four new division champs and seven new playoff teams (half the field).
This is one of the league's attractions, with strong new teams emerging each year, giving every team and fan base hope for impending success.
With the regular season now two weeks away, here are my picks for 2024 division champs (and no surprise—I’m picking four new division champs):
Predicting Every 2024 NFL Division Winner
AFC EAST: MIAMI DOLPHINS 
With five games left in the 2023 season, the Miami Dolphins had a three-game lead on the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins then lost three of their last five games, including the regular season finale, at home to the Bills, blowing the division title on a tiebreaker as both teams finished 11-6. The Bills now have won the AFC East four straight years.
The good news for Miami is it seems to play better early in the season, and it faces the Bills twice in the first nine weeks. QB Tua Tagovailoa did not play well late last season. With his contract extended, perhaps he won’t feel that pressure and will become more consistent all season long.
Josh Allen is a top-five quarterback when he doesn’t turn the ball over, but the Bills have lost several starters due to salary cap issues, including their starting wide receivers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
The Dolphins are loaded at the offensive skill positions — led by Tyreek Hill — but they need to stay healthy as injuries to edge rushers Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb were a big problem late last season. The Dolphins drafted Chop Robinson to add quality depth at the position. I think Miami has the strongest roster among AFC East teams and will win their first division title since 2008.
The Jets are a wild card. They have the division's best defense (especially if they figure out Hasson Reddick’s contract situation) and two excellent skill players in WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall. If Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and the revamped offensive line holds up, the Jets contend for the division title or at least a wild-card berth.
The Patriots are in rebuilding mode under new coach Jerod Mayo and first-round QB Drake Maye once he steps in for Jacoby Brissett.
AFC NORTH: CINCINNATI BENGALS 
The AFC North is the NFL’s best division.
The Baltimore Ravens claimed the AFC’s top seed last season, and the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns earned wild-card berths. The Cincinnati Bengals likely would’ve been a playoff team if star QB Joe Burrow hadn’t missed the last seven games with his wrist injury.
The Bengals won the AFC North in 2021 (and made the Super Bowl) and 2022 with a healthy Burrow. They've also added defensive talent via free agency and the draft.
The Ravens have reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, and free agent signee Derrick Henry adds power to the run game. However, they were hit with significant free agency losses, including Pro Bowl LB Patrick Queen, top pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney, team interceptions leader Geno Stone (now in Cincinnati), and WR Odell Beckham Jr., along with several starting offensive linemen.
I think that tilts the scales for the Bengals to reclaim the AFC North. Cincinnati will play an easier fourth-place schedule than the Ravens as a first-place team in 2023. But Cincinnati must keep Burrow on the field.
The Browns and Steelers potentially have strong defenses but fall short at quarterback compared to the Bengals and Ravens. If Deshaun Watson in Cleveland and Russell Wilson or Justin Fields in Pittsburgh play well, their teams should be in the hunt for the division or wild cards.
But the Browns playoff flop in the 45-14 wild card round loss at Houston creates some doubt about their No. 1 ranked defense from last season. Although Joe Flacco threw two Pick-6s in that game as the replacement for Watson (shoulder injury).
Cleveland also is hoping for the early season return of RB Nick Chubb from knee surgery.
AFC SOUTH: HOUSTON TEXANS 
The Houston Texans are my pick to repeat as AFC South champs. I also believe they’re a potential Super Bowl contender after their big leap last season, followed by adding a couple of four-time Pro Bowlers — Danielle Hunter and Diggs via free agency and trade.
Last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year — QB C.J. Stroud — should be even better in his second season, especially with Diggs joining Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form one of the league’s top receiver trios. Veteran Joe Mixon was added to run behind an excellent offensive line led by Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil.
Hunter and 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. will lead the pass rush for a defense that was 14th last year but was whipped 34-10 by the Ravens in the divisional playoffs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts finished last season with 9-8 records, only one game behind Houston. They could push the Texans if they get strong play from their quarterbacks — Trevor Lawrence, who has a big contract extension from the Jaguars, and Anthony Richardson, who returns from a shoulder injury as a passing and running threat for the Colts.
Tennessee was active in the free agency and trade markets to upgrade its team under new coach Brian Callahan. The O-line should be better. WR Calvin Ridley was signed. Tony Pollard will try to replace Derrick Henry, and L’Jarius Sneed will help at corner.
The Titans’ hopes depend in large part on the further development of second-year QB Will Levis. They should again finish last in the division.
AFC WEST: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 
I learned a lesson in last year’s playoffs. Don’t pick against the Kansas City Chiefs as long as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are there. While they’ll have plenty of competition in their quest for an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title, winning their ninth consecutive division title will be a cakewalk.
The Chiefs won the AFC West by three games over the Raiders and Broncos last season. Mahomes is the NFL’s best player and he has lots of help from his excellent supporting cast led by All-Pros Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Drafting speedy WR Xavier Worthy and adding Marquise Brown (recovering from a shoulder injury) should help the Chiefs’ cause.
They must replace a fine corner in the traded L’Jarius Sneed. But having the second-ranked defense last season — led by Jones — was a big part of their success.
Las Vegas and Denver will have new starting quarterbacks: Gardner Minshew for the Raiders and Bo Nix for the Broncos. The Chargers have the second-best quarterback in the division, Justin Herbert, who has returned from his foot injury.
They also have a fine new coach in Jim Harbaugh, but the wide receiver corps has been revamped.
This division should be decided in Kansas City’s favor long before Arrowhead Stadium turns as cold as it did in last January’s wild-card round victory over Miami.
NFC EAST: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 
The Dallas Cowboys took advantage of the Philadelphia Eagles’ late-season slide to win the NFC East in 2023.
The Cowboys have a couple of things working against them in their attempt to repeat. Amazingly, there has not been a repeat champion in this division since 2003. Then there are the contract squabbles in Dallas between the team and their three best players, all 2023 All-Pros — holdout WR CeeDee Lamb, disgruntled DE Micah Parsons, who is extension-eligible, and QB Dak Prescott, who is going into the final year of his contract with no extension in sight.
Based on these factors and the Cowboys' relative inactivity compared to the Eagles in free agency, I’m going with the Eagles to reclaim the division title they won in their 2022 Super Bowl runner-up season. They started 10-1 last season but shockingly lost six of their last seven games, including a playoff blowout at Tampa Bay.
Jalen Hurts will get back on track after falling back last season. He has a great pair of highly-paid wide receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith), a fine offensive line, although Jason Kelce is retired, and a terrific addition in free agent RB Saquon Barkley if he can stay healthy.
The Eagles' 31st-ranked pass defense was a huge problem, but the team drafted highly touted corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds. DT Jalen Carter should be more dominant in his second season, and edge Bryce Huff should be an effective replacement for Hasson Reddick, who was unhappy with his contract.
The Giants and Commanders will bring up the rear. Daniel Jones is coming off his ACL injury, and the Giants' offensive line, which allowed a league-worst 85 sacks in 2023, is still a question mark. But the pass rush should be top-notch, with Brian Burns joining Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence.
I like the direction the Commanders are taking. They have a mix of quality youth, led by second-overall pick Jayden Daniels at quarterback, and talented veterans like Jonathan Allen, Bobby Wagner and Daron Payne. They’re probably a year away from serious contention for a division title.
NFC NORTH: DETROIT LIONS 
The Detroit Lions won the NFC North last season by three games with a 12-5 record. It was their first division title in 30 years, and they won two home playoff games before losing to the 49ers in the NFC title game.
Detroit’s offense was prolific (third-ranked). QB Jared Goff threw for 4,575 yards (second most in the league), and it had five Pro Bowlers in 2023. However, the pass defense was their weakness (27th ranked) and target for offseason improvement. The Lions traded for CB Carlton Davis and used their first two draft picks on DBs Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw. Aidan Hutchinson is terrific, but he needs more help on the pass rush.
This division is among the league’s best and is clearly on the upswing. The Lions should repeat as division champs and be a Super Bowl contender.
They’ll finish ahead of the Packers, who won six of their last eight regular season games behind QB Jordan Love’s hot streak to earn a wild-card berth. Then, they beat the Cowboys before nearly knocking off the 49ers in the divisional playoff game.
Josh Jacobs must effectively replace Aaron Jones (now in Minnesota) at running back. If their defense plays as well as it did late last season, Green Bay should be wild card bound but will fall short of the Lions, whom they will meet in Weeks 9 and 14.
The Vikings and Bears have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball but are likely to be chasing wild-card berths rather than a division title.
They’ll be breaking in new QBs — Sam Darnold in Minnesota and first-overall pick Caleb Williams in Chicago. Both teams are loaded at wide receiver. The Vikings have All-Pro Justin Jefferson and All-Rookie (in 2023) Jordan Addison, while Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze will test secondaries for the Bears.
NFC SOUTH: ATLANTA FALCONS 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ruled this division for the past three years, but the Atlanta Falcons are ready to win the NFC South for the first time since 2016. Three key additions tip it towards the Falcons.
Through free agency, they signed four-time Pro Bowl QB Kirk Cousins in March and two-time Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons last week. Then, in a move that shores up a relatively weak pass rush, Atlanta traded for Matthew Judon, a four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher who had 15.5 sacks for the Patriots in 2022 before missing most of last season with a torn bicep.
Cousins is the key as quarterback issues derailed the Falcons last season when their defense played well (11th ranked). Even with his $100 million guarantee, the pressure is on the 36-year-old. He has significant expectations to deliver a playoff season, plus he has first-rounder Michael Penix behind him.
There’s a strong supporting cast led by a bunch of first-round skill players — RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts, along with a talented offensive line.
The Buccaneers won five of their last six games in 2023 to win the division and had an impressive playoff win against the Eagles before losing at Detroit. They re-signed QB Baker Mayfield after his fine season, along with two other key free agents — WR Mike Evans and LB Lavonte Davis. First-team All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was another big long-term signing as a franchise-tagged player.
The Buccaneers should battle the Falcons for the division title, but we can’t count out the New Orleans Saints, who finished with the same 9-8 record as Tampa Bay in 2023.
The Saints’ offense and defense were in the top half of the league last season. New Orleans won four of their last five games, including closing wins over the Buccaneers and Falcons. Derek Carr played well and could be better in his second year in the Saints’ system.
In an odd scheduling move, Atlanta plays all four of its games with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the first 10 weeks, so it should have a good idea of its position early.
It appears the Carolina Panthers are headed in the right direction, especially in shoring up the offensive line with guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to help QB Bryce Young improve in Year 2.
Jadeveon Clowney will help on defense after trading away star edge rusher Brian Burns. Houston made the big jump in the AFC South last year, but in this division, it will take at least one year, and probably a couple, before the Panthers move from 2-15 to division title contenders.
NFC WEST: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 
The San Francisco 49ers have dealt with some training camp drama with Second-team All-Pro WR Brandon Aiyuk’s demand for a lucrative extension and First-team All-Pro tackle Trent Williams holding out.
Beyond that, this is a loaded team that was a fourth-down stop away from beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl before falling 25-22.
They have Pro Bowl QB Brock Purdy, who led the league in passer rating (113.0), and Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, the league's best back. WR Deebo Samuel, along with Aiyuk and Pro Bowl TE George Kittle, provide further firepower. However, a prolonged absence by Williams would be a huge problem.
The Niners' defensive line, led by Nick Bosa, is stout, and Fred Warner is an All-Pro linebacker. Overall, the Niners' defense has plenty of talented players.
The Los Angeles Rams were a 10-win wild-card team last season but must replace Aaron Donald and keep QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp healthy. I don’t see them as a huge threat to the 49ers' chances for a third straight NFC West title. I expect San Francisco to basically put it away by beating the Rams at home on a Thursday night in Week 15.
Seattle, under new coach Mike Macdonald, needs Geno Smith to return to the level he played at in 2022 when they were a playoff team after barely missing out last season. If that happens, they can compete for a wild-card spot but won’t challenge the 49ers in the division.
Arizona Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon is raving about Kyler Murray’s performance in training camp. With a big-play addition in WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and a defense that should improve in Gannon’s second season, the Cardinals look like a team that could be a division contender in a year or two, but not yet.
