NFL Analysis
10/3/24
10 min read
2024 NFL Week 5: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
It's hard to believe we are already in October, and Week 5 kicks off on Thursday, but here we are. It's another fantastic week of games, starting with a massive divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football between two likely playoff teams.
There are also a handful of teams fighting to save their seasons, including the Bengals, who are looking to avoid a 1-4 start. So who will win in Week 5?
Here are the lines and our predictions for all 14 games this week:
>> READ MORE: Latest NFL Power Rankings
Week 4 Expert Picks, Predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Total: 43.5
This is another huge NFC South matchup early in the season that could decide who wins the division. Kirk Cousins has looked better recently, but the offense still looks a bit off. It just isn't very explosive, which means it'll have a hard time scoring more than 24 points.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield played one of the best games of his career against the Eagles, throwing for well more than 300 yards on Sunday. Atlanta’s defense should be a much tougher task, giving them a slight edge on the short week.
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 21
New York Jets (2-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Spread: Vikings -2.5
Total: 40.5
This is our first London game of the year, with kickoff set for 9:30 AM ET. This is a bad matchup for the New York Jets, as Aaron Rodgers struggled mightily to beat the blitz in Week 4. Brian Flores will be relentless in his attack on Rodgers, and his lack of mobility could make him a sitting duck in the pocket.
Sam Darnold will also get a chance to face his former team, and that’ll be a tough matchup, considering the Jets have one of the league’s best pass defenses. As long as he can avoid turning the ball over, the Minnesota Vikings should be able to take care of business in this really fun AFC-NFC matchup overseas.
Score Prediction: Vikings 20, Jets 13
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Spread: Ravens -2.5
Total: 51
The Cincinnati Bengals got their first win of the season in Week 4, defeating the Panthers 31-21. The good news for the Bengals is that the offense has looked fantastic during the last three weeks, and it appears that Joe Burrow is finally healthy. However, they are in for a tough matchup with the Baltimore Ravens coming to town after a dominant win over the Bills.
Cincinnati’s defense remains a major question mark, and it’s fair to wonder how it'll slow down Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Look for this to be a shootout, with the Ravens ultimately getting enough stops to win this contest on the road.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 23
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Spread: Jaguars -3
Total: 46.5
It sure feels like Doug Pederson is coaching for his job on Sunday. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 and have now lost their last eight games against AFC opponents. If the Jaguars fall to 0-5, it’s hard to envision Pedersen will have a job on Monday.
The Indianapolis Colts are dealing with several injuries, including Anthony Richardson (hip) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle). Both are highly questionable to play in Week 5, and that should give the Jaguars the edge in this AFC South matchup.
Look for the Jaguars to be ultra-aggressive on offense, knowing that they will have to score in the upper 20s to win. Indianapolis' banged-up defense will struggle to get stops here in Week 5.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 27, Colts 23
Cleveland Browns (1-3) vs. Washington Commanders (3-1)
Spread: Commanders -3
Total: 44.5
Can anyone stop Jayden Daniels? The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is off to a fantastic start, but this will be his toughest challenge yet. The Cleveland Browns have a strong defense and are the type of unit that can slow down dual-threat quarterbacks. However, the Washington Commanders have the No. 3 scoring offense in the NFL, and they've only punted four times all season!
The Browns might not have the offense to go toe-to-toe with Daniels if this game turns into a shootout. Deshaun Watson looked better in Week 4, but it didn't translate into many scoring opportunities.
Jim Schwartz and his defense need a strong game for the Browns to steal this one on the road but look for their offense to ultimately hold them back from winning.
Score Prediction: Commanders 26, Browns 21
Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs. New England Patriots (1-3)
Spread: Patriots -1.5
Total: 35.5
It isn’t that uncommon to see point totals under 36. We had several of them last year and a few early in the season. But those totals are usually only reserved for games with severe weather situations. That’s not the case here in this AFC East matchup.
The weather is supposed to be fantastic in Foxborough, but the quarterback play will not be. Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett might be the two worst starters in the NFL going into Week 5.
Picking a winner here is incredibly difficult, but the New England Patriots are at home, and the Miami Dolphins are at a rest disadvantage after playing on Monday night. New England has a great defense and should hold Huntley and company under 13 points. Don’t expect this to be pretty, but look for the Patriots to get their second win of the season.
Score Prediction: Patriots 17, Dolphins 13
Carolina Panthers (1-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-2)
Spread: Bears -4
Total: 42.5
There is no denying that the Carolina Panthers made the right decision to bench Bryce Young; they’ve looked like a competent franchise under Andy Dalton. The defense is still a major issue, as it hasn't replaced Derrick Brown on the interior defensive line. But at least their offense has looked functional, which gives them a fighting chance.
However, the Chicago Bears should win this game. Their defense has been outstanding in the last few games and could keep Dalton in check. Look for the Bears to run the ball early and lean on their defense to win this game. Carolina can keep this game competitive and cover the four-point spread but expect the Bears to emerge victorious.
Score Prediction: Bears 20, Panthers 17
Buffalo Bills (3-1) vs. Houston Texans (3-1)
Spread: Texans -1.5
Total: 47
This is the best matchup of the week since the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are bonafide Super Bowl contenders after the first four games of the year. Josh Allen struggled against Baltimore but should have more success playing in Houston’s dome.
The Bills' biggest concern is their defense, which could not get off the field against the Ravens. Will they have an answer for C.J. Stroud? Will Stefon Diggs have a massive revenge game against his former team?
That remains to be seen, but Buffalo has the better quarterback, and Allen will likely use his legs a lot in this contest to help move the chains. Take the Bills to get the road win in Houston and improve to 4-1.
Score Prediction: Bills 28, Texans 24
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2)
Spread: Broncos -3
Total: 36.5
If you like defense, this is the game for you. The Denver Broncos defense has been outstanding in the last few weeks, allowing 16 total points to the Buccaneers and Jets. They’ll have an easier matchup this week against Gardner Minshew, who could be without his top target, Davante Adams (hamstring, trade request).
However, don’t dismiss the Las Vegas Raiders here, as they have won eight straight games against the Broncos. It’s hard to imagine Bo Nix having any success in this game, especially if Maxx Crosby can return to the field. Take the Raiders and the points in this game and expect a really ugly, low-scoring contest in Denver.
Score Prediction: Raiders 16, Broncos 13
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Spread: 49ers -7.5
Total: 50.5
The San Francisco 49ers finally looked like the 49ers in Week 4, as the offense came to life. Brock Purdy made a bunch of plays outside of the pocket, and the team started running the ball more effectively. They should have no problem scoring again this week, as the Arizona Cardinals have not contained any functional offense.
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals can go toe-to-toe with the 49ers for a while, but look for San Francisco's talent to eventually win out.
Score Prediction: 49ers 31, Cardinals 21
Green Bay Packers (2-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-3)
Spread: Packers -3.5
Total: 48
This game looked a lot more exciting in the offseason, but the injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have zapped the juice out of this game. We can expect Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford to put up a good fight, but they just don’t have the dudes on defense to stop all of the Green Bay Packers' receivers.
With Jordan Love back on the field, the Packers should have one of the league’s most exciting offenses. The Los Angeles Rams will hang around for a while, but the Packers, the far more talented team, will pull away in the second half.
Score Prediction: Packers 30, Rams 17
New York Giants (1-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Spread: Seahawks -6.5
Total: 42
The New York Giants have a big rest advantage going into this Week 5 matchup that needs to be mentioned. New York played at home on Thursday night in Week 4 and will now have 10 days to prepare for the Seattle Seahawks.
Meanwhile, Seattle played in Detroit on Monday night in a back-and-forth contest. While there is no arguing Seattle is the better team, that is a huge advantage for the Giants. Expect this game to be closer than many think, but the Seahawks will ultimately prevail late in the fourth quarter.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Total: 43
There isn’t a better uniform matchup in the NFL than the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers.
But that’s now what you want to read about. Instead, let’s focus on this matchup, which is now a lot less exciting with Micah Parsons (and DeMarcus Lawrence) out of the lineup. The Cowboys were struggling to get stops with Parsons on the field, and Lawrence was their best run defender. It’s hard to imagine Dallas getting enough stops in this game to win, especially against another mobile quarterback in Justin Fields.
Look for the Steelers to lean on their defense and create a few takeaways in primetime. This one could get ugly, as the Cowboys are one-dimensional on offense and can’t stop the run consistently. Pittsburgh should have no problem defeating a depleted Dallas team at home.
Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Cowboys 17
>> READ MORE: Will Cowboys' Defense Dash Playoff Hopes?
New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 42.5
It’s hard to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs in primetime. No team in the league is better at winning under the bright lights than the Chiefs, and they have arguably the best closer in all of sports in Patrick Mahomes. However, this is a dangerous game for the Chiefs, especially without Rashee Rice.
The offense hasn’t been good this season, and now Mahomes has just lost his No. 1 target. Don’t be surprised if the New Orleans Saints pull off the upset, but stay away from the spread. That is just too many points for an offense that has been struggling to get to 20 points each week.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Saints 17
>> READ MORE: How Will Chiefs Replace Rashee Rice?