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Betting 2023 NFL Draft: What Team Will Take Anthony Richardson?

11 min Watch

You can now bet on which team will draft Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson (scouting report) on DraftKings Sportsbook, just like you can with Bijan Robinson (scouting report). Richardson’s odds in the first overall pick market saw wild line movement a little more than a week ago, as he went from a 30-1 longshot to a 7.5-1 contender in a matter of hours. 

After dominating the combine over the weekend, Richardson is now 3-1 to be the first overall pick on DraftKings. As things stand today, Richardson is expected to go early in the first round.

When we analyzed Robinson’s market, we went through every team directly, as Robinson has a wide range of landing spots. In Richardson’s market, we will break down his potential landing spots in groups.

Which Team Will Draft Richardson?

Favorites

Pick 2 & 12 Texans (+1000)

Pick 4 Colts (+400)

Pick 5 & 20 Seahawks (+550)

Pick 6 & 18 Lions (+750)

Pick 7 Raiders (+700)

Pick 8 Falcons (+600)

Pick 9 Panthers (+300)

This market has seven teams with 10/1 odds or less. They all have a draft pick within the top nine selections. Five of them have an immediate need at quarterback. Two are in a position to start a quality veteran this year while potentially allowing a rookie to sit for a full season. 

A lot can happen between now and the draft, but this betting market indicates one of these seven teams will likely select Richardson. Let’s dive into the favorites.

The Houston Texans will almost certainly draft a new quarterback, and they have the easiest path to moving up to the first pick. Despite their position, the Texans have the longest odds of selecting Richardson from this group. Betting markets believe Houston is more likely to take Bryce Young (scouting report) than Richardson.

The Indianapolis Colts are the second favorite in this market. The Colts’ new coach, former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, had great success with dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts. I’ve often said Hurts is among the most unique quarterback prospects I’ve ever evaluated. When he was at Alabama, I didn’t think he had any chance of developing into an impactful passer in the NFL. Then, he transferred to Oklahoma and looked like an entirely different player. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

Richardson has similar potential but only started one year in college and never had that Hurts in Oklahoma-type season as a passer. Richardson could still be available if the Colts sit tight with the fourth pick. Indianapolis is also close enough to the top of the draft to trade up to the top spot if it wants to get ahead of Houston.

The Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions are in similar positions. They both won nine games last year, had top-10 offenses, have two first-round picks, are both sneaky intriguing contenders in a weak NFC, and have veteran quarterbacks that are good but could be better. Both teams are in a position to develop a player like Richardson behind a quality veteran quarterback.

The Las Vegas Raiders appear interested in acquiring a veteran quarterback through trade or free agency. That doesn’t preclude them from taking a quarterback in the first round, especially if they can’t trade for Aaron Rodgers. But ultimately, that’s why Vegas is the fifth favorite in this market, with longer odds than two favorites that pick after them.

>> READ: Rodgers’ Decision Will Come Soon Enough

If Richardson is still available at pick eight, I’d be surprised if he got past the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have a solid offensive line and an excellent young core of blue-chip pass-catchers. Arthur Smith’s run-centric, play-action-driven offense would be an intriguing fit for Richardson’s skill set. 

The Carolina Panthers are the top favorite in this market. Carolina hasn’t had a real solution at quarterback since Cam Newton missed most of the 2019 season. If any of the four quarterbacks expected to go in the first round are available, there is a good chance they don’t get past the Panthers.

The Falcons and Panthers selecting back-to-back could result in a trade-up by either team to secure a quarterback.

Fringe Contenders

Pick 11 Titans (+1300)

Pick 16 Commanders (+1600)

Both the Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders could use a new future at quarterback. If Richardson falls, the Titans can start Ryan Tannehill this season while being patient with Richardson’s development. The Titans are in an interesting position to trade up for a quarterback with the 11th pick, too.

Washington appears to be entering the season with Sam Howell as its quarterback. The Commanders should be in the new quarterback market. However, they will have to leapfrog many teams with a quarterback need to get one of the top four guys. 

 

Longshots With Potential

Pick 13 Jets (+3000)

Pick 19 Buccaneers (+2000)

Pick 22 Ravens (+2500)

Pick 23 Vikings (+2500)

The New York Jets have a win-now roster, so they are a likely destination for Rodgers and Derek Carr. If the Jets miss out on both, they can trade up for a quarterback they like. If New York misses out on Rodgers and Carr, I will check this market to see if they are still 30-1.

>> READ: Is Carr Answer for QB Needy Teams? 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a similar position to the Commanders in this year’s draft. The Buccaneers may enter the season with an unproven player still on their rookie deal in Kyle Trask. 

If the Baltimore Ravens or Minnesota Vikings were 75-1 in this market, I’d consider putting a bet on them. If the Ravens traded Lamar Jackson, it would make sense for them to get a dynamic quarterback prospect in this year’s draft. If one team were going to move on from speed-reliant quarterbacks after their rookie deals purposely, it would probably be Baltimore.

If the Vikings finally blow up their roster and start over, they, too, would become an interesting longshot to acquire Richardson. That said, there is no value on either of these teams at 25-1 odds.

Unlikely Longshots

Pick 1 Chicago Bears (+2500)

Pick 14 Patriots (+3500)

Pick 15 Packers (+7500)

Pick 17 Steelers (+10000)

Pick 25 Giants (+4500)

Pick 29 Saints (+4000)

Dolphins (+4500)

Rams (+10000)

49ers (+10000)

The Chicago Bears have the draft capital to start over at quarterback, but should they? The jury is still out on Justin Fields, even though he’s a dynamic athlete that just ran for 1,143 yards. He also turned the Bears into a dangerous offense by himself last season. It would be odd for the Bears to swap their current dynamic quarterback with accuracy concerns for an unproven rookie with the same problems.

>> READ: Bears Leaning Toward Trading No. 1 Overall

The New England Patriots made the playoffs in Mac Jones‘ first season. There is a high chance the Patriots give Jones one more full year after his up-and-down sophomore campaign. Whether it’s Rodgers or Jordan Love under center on opening day, the Green Bay Packers don’t appear to be in the quarterback market.

I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be patient with Kenny Pickett to the point he likely gets his entire rookie deal to prove himself. I’d be shocked if Pickett wasn’t the uncontested starter for the Steelers heading into opening day.

It appears the New York Giants will either extend Daniel Jones or use the franchise tag on him. They aren’t entirely out of the quarterback market, but they are close to being out. The New Orleans Saints need a new future at quarterback, but they would have to trade away a ton to move up from the 29th pick into new quarterback territory. 

The Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers all have injury uncertainty at quarterback. They would also need more draft capital to enter new quarterback territory.

 

Teams Completely Out of Quarterback Market

Pick 3 Cardinals (+10000)

Pick 10 & 31 Eagles (+10000)

Pick 21 Chargers (+20000)

Pick 24 Jaguars (+20000)

Pick 26 Cowboys (+10000)

Pick 27 Bills (+20000)

Pick 28 Bengals (+20000)

Pick 30 Chiefs (+20000)

Broncos (+10000)

Browns (+20000)

These teams are all long shots in this market because they are all set at quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs are each complete cross-offs in this market. The Eagles belong in that group as well with Hurts. 

The Arizona Cardinals have the draft capital to select a new quarterback, but they signed Kyler Murray to a long-term deal last offseason. Even if the Cleveland Browns or Denver Broncos wanted to change directions at the position, neither team has a first-round pick to use in a trade. 

Notable Line Movement

This market opened on Friday, March 3. Here are the most notable early line changes in this market:

  • The Colts opened at +750, tied for the fifth favorite with the Falcons. Indianapolis is currently +400
  • The Falcons opened at +750, tied for the fifth favorite with the Colts. Atlanta is currently +600
  • The Raiders opened at +600 and are presently at +700
  • The Lions opened at +600 and are currently at +750
  • The Titans opened at +1000 and are presently at +1300
  • The Commanders opened at +1200 and are currently +1600
  • The Buccaneers opened at +1200 and are now +2000
  • The Patriots opened at +2200 and are now +3500
  • The Giants opened at +3000 and are now +4500
  • The Bengals, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs and Jaguars all opened at +10000 and are now all +20000

If I were an oddsmaker, I would have set the Colts and Falcons as the top two favorites in this market. The Raiders are signaling they’d prefer a veteran quarterback. The Lions could benefit from selecting a top-tier defensive talent, and Jared Goff is only 28. 

As things stand now, Richardson will likely be gone by the time the Titans, Commanders and Buccaneers pick. The Giants and Patriots are unlikely to select a first-round quarterback. If the Bengals, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs or Jaguars were +50000 in this market, I still wouldn’t frame those as good bets.

There is a logic-based reason behind each of these line movements.

 

Final Thoughts

I won’t make any bets in this market right now because a seven-team cluster of favorites could all realistically acquire Richardson. We could add the Titans to that mix and make it an eight-team bunch. 

Considering that eight teams within the first 11 picks could realistically draft a quarterback with their first selection, I don’t have any real interest in forcing a bet on a favorite in this market. The underdogs I like don’t have long enough odds for me to pull the trigger.

But I am going to check this market when these events transpire:

  • Rodgers gets traded, retires, or stays in Green Bay
  • Jimmy Garoppolo signs
  • Lamar Jackson signs or gets traded

And if these events transpire:

  • Kirk Cousins gets traded
  • Jones gets traded
  • Someone trades with the Bears for the first-overall pick

I want the “who needs a quarterback” market to narrow before making any bets in this market. I’ll use an example to illustrate why that matters. If, say, Rodgers gets traded to the Raiders, Carr signs with Carolina and Jackson gets traded to the Falcons, that string of events would radically change this market.

Three of the favorites would essentially be eliminated from contention, while the Jets and Ravens would become far more likely to expend significant resources to trade up for a quarterback. That’s another reason I’m waiting to make any bets in this market. 

If I make any bets in this market, I will drop those in our discord in the future.

WATCH: Top 5 Best Ball Targets

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Free Agency

2023 NFL Free Agency: Is Derek Carr Answer For QB-Needy Teams?

Television Host, Play-by-Play Announcer

2 min Watch

That team is a quarterback away.

We hear it all the time. Whether as a late-season reference to a team that showed many positives but lacked a quality passing game (New York Jets), or an off-season description of a team that otherwise showed potential but fell short at the most critical position in pro sports (Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints).

They’re a QB away. Well, I have questions. First, this team is a quarterback away from what? From being competitive? From being a playoff team? Or from winning a Super Bowl?

And second, who is that quarterback?

Let’s make it for former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, one of the most-coveted free agents on the market. Multiple teams should be interested in signing him. He’s piled up nine seasons of starting experience and proven to be highly durable and impressively efficient. At 31, he lands in that sweet spot of QB experience, where he’s a veteran but not yet old. 

Carr would be a good addition to most quarterback-needy teams. But how good is he? And what would a team get if it signed him? 

For any team kicking the tires on Carr in early March, the process begins with the organization defining who Carr is and the quarterback tier to which he belongs.

Each team would have its own order, but Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are head of the class. Then you slot in Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson to your preference. If you still have Aaron Rodgers in that group, that’s up to you, but his place there is no longer a given. 

The next tier is where it gets super interesting because somewhere in it is where you’ll find Carr.

If you’re high on him, you’d have him eighth or ninth. If you’re not that sold, he could be as low as 14th or 15th. I see him closer to 10th, on the cusp of the NFL’s top tier. Putting him in that upper echelon wouldn’t be accurate, but it would be a slight to say he’s just middle-of-the-pack.

No matter your ranking of him, he would be an upgrade for most teams in the NFL, so let’s start with the good.

>> READ: Matt Cassel’s Way-Too-Early QB Power Rankings

Derek Carr Quarterback Las Vegas Raiders

Carr’s Strengths

I love his durability. Carr has started 142 of a possible 146 games in nine seasons. That’s A+ work for reliability and toughness — and it shouldn’t be overlooked.

Whichever team signs him can count on him being there every Sunday throughout the season, and that’s a wonderful foundation for belief.

His consistent production also gives any organization reason to believe in him. His career 64.6 percent completion percentage is beyond solid, just like his 217-99 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  Those stats, without context, go a lap beyond respectable. They settle in comfortably and keep pace with the QBs in the “really good” lane.

From there, I wanted to distill it down more; attach some personality to his version of quality.

Nine seasons and 142 starts is an extensive body of work. I had to pick out a strategic sample of work, an accurate snapshot of who Carr is. 

I focused on what he did from 2018 to 2021 with Jon Gruden as his head coach and Greg Olson as his offensive coordinator. The fit wasn’t there with Josh McDaniels this past season, and he spent much of his early career rotating through defensive head coaches and multiple offensive coordinators. His time with Gruden and Olson was the best indicator of what he could do with consistent messaging and guidance. He had enough experience to leverage it into results.

Carr’s Most Important Run (2018-2021)

Which games mattered the most during that time? A four-game run that started in mid-December of 2021, with Las Vegas at 6-7, needing to win all four to have a shot at the playoffs. These were meaningful late-season games where every snap mattered, with no wiggle room for failure.

In the first game against the Cleveland Browns, down 14-13 with 1:50 left, the Raiders got the ball one last time on their 28. Carr completed three passes, the final one a perfectly placed dart to Zay Jones, on the move to his right while evading pressure, for 15 yards to set up a winning field goal. 

Two weeks later, in a 23-20 win against the Indianapolis Colts, Carr played his best in the fourth quarter, twice leading drives that gave Las Vegas the lead. During that stretch, one play was a signature-type throw for who he is, and for what a team could look forward to when they make him their future QB. 

Down 17-13 on their 33-yard line, Las Vegas had the ball on the left hash. The play called for Jones, lined up as a slot receiver to Carr’s right, to run a deep sail route toward the left sideline, 35 yards downfield. A concept that calls for that kind of route depth, asking a receiver to cross from one side of the field to the other, requires extra protection, along with extra patience and pocket comfort from the quarterback. It also requires touch on a pass that’s somewhere between launched and driven. Carr executed every portion of the play beautifully. 

With a tip of the cap to the offensive line for providing a solid pocket, Carr reached the top of his drop and stepped up. Needing more time for Jones to clear, he stepped up again, just as comfortably as he did the first time. He never lost his lower-body balance or upper-body readiness and never put his eyes down. He does this exceptionally well. Carr is at home maneuvering and scanning inside the pocket with chaos around him. 

After nimbly moving up five yards from his initial drop, Carr floated a perfect spiral to Jones, letting it go at just the right time with just the right amount of touch, hitting him in stride for 42 yards. The throw was the Raiders’ biggest pass play of the day and led to Carr hitting Hunter Renfrow in the end zone for a go-ahead touchdown. 

That was Carr at his best. He was operating with patience and balance within a clean pocket, calling upon his best passing quality — beautiful touch on mid to deep routes — to dial up a big play. His protection made him comfortable, and the route concept showed off his talent.

Carr was solid the following week in an overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers, limiting the type of mistakes that will cost your team in a one-score game while making enough good decisions and accurate throws to earn the win.

His team needed four straight wins to make the postseason, and Carr navigated the path there, which required long stretches of quality play in each of the four one-score games.

The Drawbacks

If we’re going to highlight the good of what turned out to be a defining stretch of his regular-season career, it’s fair to focus on the moments that prevented it from going further, which shifts focus to those four failed downs at the end of the wild-card loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals led the Raiders, 26-19, in the final minute, and Las Vegas was driving. Carr delivered back-to-back seeds between the numbers, one to Darren Waller and one to Jones to give the Raiders first-and-goal on the 9, with 38 seconds left.

They had no timeouts, so Carr and the Raiders hurried to line up. Yet instead of running a play, Carr spiked the ball, wasting a down. It was highly questionable for either he or the coaching staff — if not both — and a check on the wrong side of the ledger in a big moment.

Second and third down yielded failed shots into the end zone before fourth down fell short, literally and figuratively. 

On that fourth-and-goal from the 9, Carr looked left, came back, and threw right late to Jones, who was a yard short of the end zone and working his way back to Carr. The ball was intercepted, though Jones would have been tackled well short of the goal line even if the ball got to him.

That ended what I see as the most significant month of Carr’s nine-year run with the Raiders. It included more positives than negatives, as did his entire tenure with the organization. 

Metaphorically speaking, it’s so fitting the final drive in Cincinnati had the Raiders this close to moving into the Divisional Round because I see Carr as this close to belonging in the next tier of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.

What Caliber QB Would an NFL Team Get?

Would a new surrounding cast with more stability, better playmakers and higher-quality defense elevate him into that top group of NFL quarterbacks? Or is he, at 31, the fully developed version of himself: A high-quality quarterback, just a standard deviation away from being elite?

That speculation is part of the offseason fun for us as fans and media members and part of the difficulty for NFL general managers. There’s no right or wrong answer, just hunches on what Carr could do on a better team, in a better situation. 

Most of this will just lead to good banter among fans. Some will lead to hours of intense discussion among NFL decision-makers, and one of those decision-makers will set the immediate direction of an NFL franchise.

Whichever team signs Carr, if that team is “a quarterback away” from being a playoff contender, and that QB is Carr, they should get him. He’s your guy. He’s that guy. Sign him and remove the frustration of watching your playoff-caliber team perform without a playoff-caliber quarterback.

This comes with a caveat. I would also temper the expectation that he would somehow lead your team to the conference championship or to the Super Bowl. 

It would be a significant surprise if a quarterback not named Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow or Allen hoisted the Lombardi Trophy next February in Vegas. That’s not a slight to Carr and the rest of the outstanding quarterbacks in the league; it’s just the reality of the NFL right now.

Paul Burmeister, a former starting quarterback at Iowa, is a studio host with NBC Sports and the radio voice of Notre Dame Football. For a decade he worked as a studio host at NFL Network. Follow him on Twitter at @PaulWBurmeister.

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2022 NFL Draft Do-Over: Sauce Gardner Goes No. 1, Jets Land New Franchise QB

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2022 NFL Draft Do-Over: Sauce Gardner Goes No. 1, Jets Land New Franchise QB
The 2022 NFL Draft provided some teams with quality players, who helped them reach new levels this past season. However, some teams probably wish they could go back in time and make different picks. Well, it’s those team’s lucky day. Led by T.J. McCreight, The 33rd Team Scouting Department has taken a break from evaluating 2023 […]

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Rodgers to Raiders, Hopkins to Titans? Trades to Boost Broken NFL Teams

Award-Winning NFL Executive

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Rodgers to Raiders, Hopkins to Titans? Trades to Boost Broken NFL Teams
Several NFL teams make the leap each season from the outhouse of non-playoff teams to the penthouse of postseason participants. In 2022, there were seven new playoff teams and four new division champs (Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, and Jacksonville Jaguars) compared to the previous season.  Jacksonville increased its win total by six […]

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News

Jets Believe Carr Could Be ‘First-Ballot Hall of Famer’ in New York

3 min Watch

Plenty of good vibrations emerged after free-agent quarterback Derek Carr met with the New York Jets last weekend, a visit that went “really well,” ESPN reported. The Jets made their case to Carr with some serious gravitas — pitching the idea that Carr could become a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he wins big in New York.

The Jets’ decision-makers believe a veteran quarterback is the team’s missing piece. In 2022, they started three quarterbacks, due to injuries and the disappointing performance of former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. Wilson completed just 54.5 percent of his passes and had more interceptions (7) than touchdown passes (6) in nine starts.

Still, the team played meaningful games late into the season before finishing with a 7-10 record. The Jets believe they could’ve been a playoff team with reliable quarterback play — something New York hopes Carr can provide in 2023.

Greg Jennings, an analyst for The 33rd Team, sees plenty of upside in a union between the Jets and the former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback.

“I think the New York Jets are a perfect spot,” Jennings said. “When you think about what they have already on their roster, it’s ready-made with the insertion of a (quality) quarterback. The Jets wouldn’t have to give anything up; they can just acquire Derek Carr for whatever that contract will look like.”

The Raiders released Carr last week after nine seasons as their starter hours before his contract became fully guaranteed for the next two seasons. The QB refused to waive his no-trade clause, and Las Vegas felt it was time to move on despite getting nothing in return.

Were Carr to join the Jets, he would take control of an offense that includes the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and another 2021 pick, second-round running back Breece Hall, who gained 682 yards from scrimmage in seven games before suffering a season-ending knee injury.

The Jets also possessed one of the league’s most talented and productive defenses in 2022. They finished fourth in yards allowed and points allowed per game, led by two first-team All-Pros — cornerback Sauce Gardner, the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.

The Jets reportedly also have inquired about the availability of Aaron Rodgers in a trade from the Green Bay Packers. First, Rodgers will have to decide if he wants to continue playing, and if he wants to do it in Green Bay. Rodgers could make his decision after he emerges from his “darkness retreat.”

If the Jets can secure Carr or Rodgers as their new franchise quarterback and bolster an already-dangerous defense, they will put themselves in line to end the NFL’s longest playoff drought — 12 years.

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Rankings

Way-Too-Early NFL Quarterback Rankings for 2023

Pro Bowl Quarterback

3 min Watch

Former NFL quarterback Matt Cassel provides his way-too-early 2023 QB rankings. All stats are from the 2022 regular season. 

  1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

QB Record: 14-3 | QBR: 77.6 | Passing TDs: 41 | Passing Yards: 5,250

Comment: MVP, check. Super Bowl MVP, check. One of the gutsiest Super Bowl performances ever, check. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains on top of the mountain until someone can knock him off next season.

>> READ: Mahomes Is Already an All-Time Great

  2. Jalen Hurts, Eagles

QB Record: 14-1 | QBR: 66.4 | Passing TDs: 22 | Passing Yards: 3,701

Comment: Jalen Hurts made a big jump up my rankings with his consistent, dynamic playoff performances culminating with a historic Super Bowl showing for the Philadelphia Eagles. Hurts heads into next season with one of the best chances to become No. 1 on this list.

>> READ: How Hurts Improved from 2021 to 2022

  3. Joe Burrow, Bengals

QB Record: 12-4 | QBR: 58.7 | Passing TDs: 35 | Passing Yards: 4,475

Comment: During the past two seasons, Joe Burrow has been as cool and consistent as any quarterback in the league, including the two guys above him on this list. Burrow led the Cincinnati Bengals to the AFC Championship Game one season after making the Super Bowl. There’s an argument right now these three guys are 1A, 1B, and 1C rather than one through three.

  4. Josh Allen, Bills

QB Record: 13-3 | QBR: 71.4 | Passing TDs: 35 | Passing Yards: 4,283

Comment: Josh Allen peaked at No. 1 on our list mid-season, but the turnovers late in the year dropped him down a bit. That said, don’t count this guy and the Buffalo Bills out. He is huge, athletic, and has a cannon. Now, more than ever, he might have the biggest chip on his shoulder of any quarterback on this list.

  5. Justin Herbert, Chargers

QB Record: 10-7 | QBR: 58.3 | Passing TDs: 25 | Passing Yards: 4,739

Comment: You might have forgotten by now how Justin Herbert‘s Los Angeles Chargers blew a 27-point lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the playoffs, but I’m certain Herbert hasn’t. I’m looking forward to seeing if a new offensive coordinator — Kellen Moore — can help Herbert crack into the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks.

  6. Lamar Jackson, Ravens

QB Record: 8-4 | QBR: 59.1 | Passing TDs: 17 | Passing Yards: 2,242

Comment: If you forgot about the Chargers’ loss in the playoffs, then you also could have forgotten how dynamic a healthy Lamar Jackson can be in the Baltimore Ravens’ lineup. I expect Jackson to be healthy next season after not playing much in the back half of 2022. I’m looking forward to seeing what type of weapons he’ll have at his disposal — and where he’ll be using them.

>> READ: Jackson Among Top Franchise Tag Candidates

  7. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

QB Record: 9-8 | QBR: 54.5 | Passing TDs: 25 | Passing Yards: 4,113

Comment: Only three quarterbacks last year threw for at least 25 touchdowns and ran for at least five more: Allen, Burrow … and this guy. Trevor Lawrence‘s amazing comeback win against the Chargers showed me he’s on pace to be yet another young, talented, superstar quarterback.  The future of the position is bright when this guy is only ranked seventh on my list.

  8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

QB Record: 8-9 | QBR: 39.3 | Passing TDs: 26 | Passing Yards: 3,695

Comment: It’s like Groundhog Day right now. When will Aaron Rodgers reveal himself from his cave, and what will the news be when he comes out? But seriously folks, without knowing if he’ll end up with the Green Bay Packers or another team, it’s tough to quantify his ranking. We do know the New York Jets have reached out already. If he winds up in the right spot, expect to see one of the greatest ever challenge the guys above him on this list for the top spot.

>> READ: Packers Reportedly “Disgusted” with Rodgers

  9. Dak Prescott, Cowboys

QB Record: 8-4 | QBR: 57.9 | Passing TDs: 23 | Passing Yards: 2,860

Comment: What a roller-coaster season for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. Prescott played well when he returned from his Week 1 injury, but obviously, they fell short of the NFC Championship again. I’m intrigued to see what happens when Mike McCarthy replaces Moore as the primary play-caller.  It could mean big things for Prescott and the entire offense in Dallas.

  10. Geno Smith, Seahawks

QB Record: 9-8 | QBR: 60.8 | Passing TDs: 30 | Passing Yards: 4,282

Comment: Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks had a strong first half of the season followed by a bit of a dip in the second half of the season. But overall, Smith proved he absolutely can be a starting NFL quarterback. Perhaps having that pressure off heading into this year’s camp will allow even more growth for one of the feel-good quarterback stories of the year.

  11. Kirk Cousins, Vikings

QB Record: 13-4 | QBR: 49.9 | Passing TDs: 29 | Passing Yards: 4,547

Comment: It’s that time of year again when Minnesota Vikings fans ask if Kirk Cousins is their quarterback or if it’s time to move on. I argue the Vikings would not have had nearly as much success as they did last season without the veteran slinging it all over the field. Clearly, he knows how to get his wide receivers the ball, including one of the best in the game — Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson.

  12. Jared Goff, Lions

QB Record: 9-8 | QBR: 61.1 | Passing TDs: 29 | Passing Yards: 4,438

Comment: Give me a rival team hoping to see the Detroit Lions sneak into the playoffs last year, and I’ll give you a firm handshake. All Jared Goff did in the second half of the season was lead one of the most dynamic teams in the league just short of the playoffs. They clearly found their groove and with the sixth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Goff and the Lions may be one of the scariest opponents on any team’s schedule in 2023.

  13. Justin Fields, Bears

QB Record: 3-12 | QBR: 54 | Passing TDs: 17 | Passing Yards: 2,242

Comment: Will Justin Fields be the Chicago Bears‘ franchise quarterback? Or will he be looking for that title in another uniform? Either way, no quarterback was more dynamic with his feet in 2022. Fields finished with 1,143 yards rushing and eight rushing touchdowns in 2023.

>> READ: Should Bears Replace Fields? 

  14. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

QB Record: 8-5 | QBR: 68.8 | Passing TDs: 25 | Passing Yards: 3,548

Comment: We saw flashes of the greatness Tua Tagovailoa has inside him early in the season. His injuries, especially the concussions, are concerning. I’m hoping to see a healthy Tagovailoa show us his full potential next year for the Miami Dolphins.

15. Derek Carr, Free Agent

QB Record: 6-9 | QBR: 55.6 | Passing TDs: 24 | Passing Yards: 3,522

Comment: If Rodgers is the most prized potential addition for teams in need of a new quarterback, then Derek Carr is probably the second. Arguably one of the most durable signal-callers on our list, Carr is a veteran who can still sling it. He may end up being the most important signing all offseason.

>> READ: Carr Visits New York Jets

  16. Daniel Jones, Giants

QB Record: 9-6-1 | QBR: 60.8 | Passing TDs: 15 | Passing Yards: 3,205

Comment: Daniel Jones proved he can play. Now the New York Giants may have to prove they can pay.  Jones is one of the more underrated arms in the league. He is accurate, and he has arm strength that doesn’t get talked about enough. He’s also become a hybrid pocket-running passer like we’re seeing more and more in the league right now. The future is bright for Jones.

>> READ: Jones Wants $45 Million Contract

  17. Brock Purdy, 49ers

QB Record: 5-0 | QBR: 65.6 | Passing TDs: 13 | Passing Yards: 1,374

Comment: I absolutely hated seeing him get hurt in the playoffs. But as much of a disappointment as the end of the season was for Brock Purdy, he went from third string to third in the Rookie of the Year voting, helping the San Francisco 49ers remain a legit Super Bowl contender. There are no more questions he needs to answer. He can play in the NFL. Now, we’ll see if he can get healthy and add more chapters to that Cinderella story.

  18. Kyler Murray, Cardinals

QB Record: 3-8 | QBR: 51.7 | Passing TDs: 14 | Passing Yards: 2,368

Comment: The 2022 season was a nightmare for the dynamic talent, who threw just 14 touchdown passes vs. seven interceptions. Kyler Murray also suffered a torn ACL in Week 14, forcing his season to end early. But the Arizona Cardinals wouldn’t have given him that long-contract extension last offseason if they felt like he couldn’t return from adversity. We’ll see soon enough if that decision pays off.

  19. Matthew Stafford, Rams

QB Record: 3-6 | QBR: 50.3 | Passing TDs: 10 | Passing Yards: 2,087

Comment: This was a down year for both Matthew Stafford and his squad. However, coach Sean McVay decided to come back and right the ship in 2023. There’s no doubt Stafford has the skillset and the pedigree to captain it. Stafford has been doubted in the past and has always shut down the haters. He’s a Super Bowl champion, and you can’t bet against that.

  20. Ryan Tannehill, Titans

QB Record: 6-6 | QBR: 49.1 | Passing TDs: 13 | Passing Yards: 2,536

Comment: Losing A.J. Brown hurt. I can only imagine having to watch my former best receiver help his new team to a Super Bowl as Brown did for the Eagles. That said, Ryan Tannehill has gotten himself off the ground throughout his college and NFL careers, and I wouldn’t doubt he has something to prove heading into next season.

21. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

QB Record: 7-3 | QBR: 54.3 | Passing TDs: 16 | Passing Yards: 2,437

Comment: Jimmy Garoppolo is still technically on the 49ers, but they’ve already said he won’t be back next season. Last season was certainly an interesting one for Garoppolo. He was the backup, then the starter before eventually landing on IR. Then, he watched his backup become a star. Garoppolo may miss that dynamic 49ers offense, but he could use a fresh start somewhere else.

>> READ: 49ers Say They’re Moving on From Jimmy G

  22. Andy Dalton, Saints

QB Record: 6-8 | QBR: 50.7 | Passing TDs: 18 | Passing Yards: 2,871

Comment: To a degree, Andy Dalton righted the ship in New Orleans during a funky year for the Saints. He’s a veteran who has been on both sides of the mountain and is battle-tested. His story isn’t fully written yet, especially if he ends up on a different team this offseason.

  23. Russell Wilson, Broncos

QB Record: 4-11 | QBR: 37.0 | Passing TDs: 16 | Passing Yards: 3,524

Comment: No need to sugarcoat it. It was an awful, nightmare, horrible season for Russell Wilson. I’m sure he’d be the first one to admit that. But now, with Sean Peyton at the helm, there are reasons for optimism in Denver for the first time since about Week 4 of last year. Wilson is low on this list because he has a lot to prove next season.

>> READ: Payton’s Offense Can Revitalize Wilson’s Career

  24. Deshaun Watson, Browns

QB Record: 3-3 | QBR: 38.3 | Passing TDs: 7 | Passing Yards: 1,102

Comment: Speaking strictly about on-field play, Deshaun Watson still has a lot to prove to the city of Cleveland on whether or not that guaranteed contract was worth the money and the years. He played in six games and threw seven touchdowns and five interceptions. That means Watson will need to boom next season to avoid a historic bust tag.

  25. Mac Jones, Patriots

QB Record: 6-8 | QBR: 36.2 | Passing TDs: 14 | Passing Yards: 2,997

Comment: There were a lot of ups and downs for Mac Jones this past season. I’m still unsure of what type of quarterback he can be. But we will certainly find out with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien returning to the New England Patriots this season.

26. Jacoby Brissett, Browns

QB Record: 4-7 | QBR: 60 | Passing TDs: 12 | Passing Yards: 2,608

Comment: Jacoby Brissett was thrust into a tough situation in Cleveland and showed a little fear early with some big turnovers. But in his final five starts, he threw just one pick. Brissett proved he can play quarterback elsewhere in the NFL next season.

  27. Kenny Pickett, Steelers

QB Record: 7-5 | QBR: 51.5 | Passing TDs: 7 | Passing Yards: 2,404

Comment: Kenny Pickett needs to limit mistakes, stay on the field and show some consistency. Throwing game-winning touchdowns with less than a minute left in consecutive games might be a glimpse into Pickett’s moxie. He’s going to need it to carry the weight of one of the league’s most historic franchises on his back.

28. Baker Mayfield, Rams

QB Record: 2-8 | QBR: 24.5 | Passing TDs: 10 | Passing Yards: 2,163

Comment: Do you know how hard it is to join a team, learn a new playbook a few hours later, and then lead a team to a comeback win against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football? I’ll tell you … it’s hard. Baker Mayfield did that. He also proved what he needed to prove in 2022 – that he can be an NFL QB. Given the Rams’ cap situation, it’ll just likely happen with a different team in 2023.

  29. Davis Mills, Texans

QB Record: 3-10-1 | QBR: 33.1 | Passing TDs: 17 | Passing Yards: 3,118

Comment: It’s hard to quantify what Davis Mills can accomplish as a quarterback. Can he be a starter? I need to see more reps before I make that claim. Mills might not get that chance with the Houston Texans this season because they’re likely to use the second-overall pick on a new quarterback.

>> READ: The 33rd Team’s Latest Mock Draft

  30. Sam Darnold, Panthers

QB Record: 4-2 | QBR: 48.3 | Passing TDs: 7 | Passing Yards: 1,143

Comment: The jury is still out on this one-time top prospect. However, 2023 may be the year we reach a verdict on whether Sam Darnold is a starter. Will it be in Carolina? That remains to be seen. The Panthers seem poised to select a quarterback in the first round, but Darnold could stick around as a bridge option.

>> READ: 2023 Draft QBs with Best Arm Strength

  31. Mike White, Jets

QB Record: 1-3 | QBR: 37 | Passing TDs: 3 | Passing Yards: 1,192

Comment: At one point in the season, Jets fans were rocking “White Knight” T-shirts. Players seem to love playing with Mike White, but he needs to show some more consistent results to move up these rankings.

  32. Desmond Ridder, Falcons

QB Record: 2-2 | QBR: 49.8 | Passing TDs: 2 | Passing Yards: 708

Comment: The jury is still out, but Desmond Ridder gets the nod as my 32nd-best quarterback over guys like Trey Lance and Jordan Love because, of the three, he at least started the final three games of the season. All three walk into 2023 with huge question marks surrounding their games and futures.

Matt Cassel is a former NFL quarterback who played with seven teams in his NFL career, most notably the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, and Dallas Cowboys. Follow him on Twitter at @M_Cassel16.

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