Ari Meirov thinks that free agency, which begins March 15, could get off to a fast start for the top-of-the-line guys. He also says we should keep an eye out for more than a couple of trades.
>> READ: Top 150 Free Agent Rankings
Free agency comes next week, and it will get chaotic. Teams and agents have been talking numbers and potential contract structures for weeks now, and eventually deals start rolling through one after the other.
Executives don’t view this year’s free agency class as strong compared to other years, but a large number of players will get paid, and teams are prepared to spend, especially after the salary cap increased by $16.6 million (from $208.2 million to $224.8 million). The cap is expected to take another significant jump next offseason.
While players like Jessie Bates, Orlando Brown Jr., Tremaine Edmunds and Javon Hargrave are set to headline the free agency market, several other names should also cash in. Here’s a look at 10 free agents who could get paid more than you might expect:
Top 150 Free Agent Rankings | Free Agency Tracker
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 6
The Eagles acquired C.J. Gardner-Johnson before the start of the season for a pair of Day 3 picks, and he played a massive role in the secondary. He finished the year tied for the league lead with six interceptions, despite missing five games.
His production, age (25) and versatility will make him a hot commodity on the open market, and Philadelphia could be bracing to lose him.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 10
Jimmy Garoppolo’s health is a primary concern, as he’s missed 32 games to injury since 2016. The one year he didn’t miss any games was the 2019 season when the San Francisco 49ers made the Super Bowl. Garoppolo has a quick release, is loved by his teammates and has proven he can be a viable starter.
An advantage Garoppolo has in free agency is his connections around the league, thanks to the Kyle Shanahan and Bill Belichick coaching trees. There’s Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas, Robert Saleh with the Jets, DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik with the Texans and Ran Carthon with the Titans.
Familiarity goes a long way in the NFL. It will not be a surprise if Garoppolo gets a deal somewhere in between what Geno Smith ($35 million per season) and Derek Carr ($40 million per season) got.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 20
The wide receiver market is not strong, and the position’s draft class is not as stacked as in previous years. That will benefit Jakobi Meyers, who should get at least $13 million per year. The 26-year-old former undrafted free agent finished 2022 with 67 catches, 804 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games for the New England Patriots.
He caught 70 percent of his targets, ranking 10th among all receivers (minimum 90 targets). Simply put, Meyers could not have found a better time to be a free agent, especially after last year’s spike in pay at the position.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 21
Jamel Dean started 38 games in four years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including 15 this past season, his first as a full-time starter. The 6-foot-1, 206-pound Dean plays physically and matches up well with big-bodied receivers. He allowed a completion percentage of 51.9 percent during the past two seasons.
Dean, 26, will be a highly coveted player, and his market could end up taking him to at least $14 million per year.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 23
Dalton Schultz ranks fourth in receptions, seventh in yards and fifth in touchdowns among all tight ends during the past three seasons. He’s one of seven tight ends with 2,000 or more yards during that stretch. Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller are the others. Schultz also brings value as a run blocker, something he’s improved on throughout his career.
The Dallas Cowboys used the franchise tag on Schultz last season, but he’ll hit the open market this time. Expect his market to take him over $10 million per year.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 26
Isaac Seumalo is the least talked about offensive lineman on the Philadelphia Eagles‘ front, but he deserves his flowers. The 29-year-old can play all three interior positions and started all 20 games in 2022 after playing just 12 games the previous two years because of knee and foot injuries.
Expect him to land somewhere in the $8 million- to $11 million-per-year range.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 34
A second-round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019, Jawaan Taylor is coming off the best season of his young career, specifically from a pass-protection standpoint.
Taylor, 25, has been durable, starting every game he’s played, including 100 percent of Jacksonville’s snaps in 2019, 2020 and 2021 and 98 percent of the snaps this past season.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 45
Zach Allen racked up 95 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 61 pressures and 12 pass breakups during the last two seasons with the Arizona Cardinals. He was in the same defensive line room with future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt during that span, and Allen gave Watt a ton of credit for helping take his game to the next level.
Teams are always looking to add pass rushers, and Allen’s best football is in front of him. He’ll turn 26 in August.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 49
A third-round pick in 2019, Bobby Okereke has been a full-time starter for two seasons and took a significant step forward this year with 151 tackles (99 solo), six tackles for loss, five passes defended and two forced fumbles.
He showed he could play more than one linebacker spot during his four years with the Indianapolis Colts. The off-ball linebacker market is reasonably deep this year, but Okereke should have a decent market.
The 33rd Team Free Agency Ranking: 86
A Denver Broncos‘ third-round pick in 2019, Dre’Mont Jones has 22 sacks in his first four seasons, and his 138 quarterback pressures are top 20 among all interior defensive linemen during that span.
There’s still room to improve, but contracts are all about projecting forward rather than rewarding past production. With Jones turning 26 in January, he should do well on the open market. Look for him to land a deal with an annual value of $14 million to $18 million.
Other names to keep an eye on:
In an ongoing offseason series, experts from The 33rd Team offer three things each team can do to improve in 2023.
AFC: BAL | BUF | CIN | CLE | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LAC | LV | MIA | NE | NYJ | PIT | TEN
NFC: ATL | CAR | DAL | DET | GB | LAR | MIN | NYG | PHI | SEA | SF
Here is my list of three things that would improve the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers need to clean up their salary cap. They kept the team together after they won Super Bowl LV with Tom Brady, but now they have some tough decisions to make.
We already have seen they plan to release running back Leonard Fournette. They have 26 pending free agents this year, and 23 of them are unrestricted free agents. I think they’re probably going to try to keep Jamel Dean. Cornerback is a premium position, and he’s only 26. He was one of their fastest guys, and I think they try to find a way to retain him.
On the flip side, you have linebacker Lavonte David, who tied for the team lead in tackles with 124, but he’s 33. Think about what he’s going to command on the open market. That might be a guy they end up having to let go.
They have to get back to where they can actually function under the salary cap.
They have to work the system to get a franchise quarterback. General manager Jason Licht said they’re going to give Kyle Trask an opportunity to compete for the starting job. They drafted him in the second round in 2021. He’s been around the GOAT for the past two years. So if he picked up on something, he could be an intriguing prospect. He showed a lot of talent coming out of Florida.
When you look at the blueprint of the Philadelphia Eagles, look at Jalen Hurts. What was he? A second-round pick. They built a great defense around him, gave him some weapons on offense, and then he took his team to the Super Bowl in his third year.
I’m not saying Trask is going to do what Hurts did, but that is the blueprint that had some success for the Eagles. If you look at many of the successful teams, the Cincinnati Bengals have Joe Burrow, the Eagles have Hurts, and the Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, who is only 26. All of those young quarterbacks took their teams to the Super Bowl.
Coach Todd Bowles has a reputation for giving offensive coordinators and quarterbacks nightmares. The Buccaneers’ defense didn’t play up to their standard as far as getting sacks and interceptions last season, probably due to all of the injuries they had.
They’re going to lose some players in free agency, probably David. They need to try to retain Dean. So there will be some fluctuations on that defense. If they can stay healthy and get that swagger back, that will help them.
If the Buccaneers are going to have a young quarterback, they need to attack the football on defense because Trask is going to need the help. That will help build the franchise back to the level it was at just a few years ago.
Tank Williams played five seasons in the NFL. Follow him on Twitter @TankWilliams13
