NFL Analysis
3/10/25
9 min read
Biggest Winners, Losers From NFL's Early Free Agent Action
The NFL’s tampering window opened at noon Eastern on Monday, but the league didn’t wait until then to spend money.
It’s been an active first unofficial day of free agency and we’re here to break down some winners and losers of the early movement on the market.
Early Free Agency Winners & Losers
Winner: Buffalo Bills
It’s advantageous when a team can sign good players early. The Buffalo Bills made sure to do that before free agency opened. Buffalo signed linebacker Terrel Bernard to a four-year, $50 million extension with $25.2 million guaranteed. That got in before other linebacker contracts started to explode. Nick Bolton and Jamie Sherwood both got $15 million per year to return to their teams.
Bernard had an impressive season in 2023, filling in for an injured Matt Milano, and carried that into 2024—also while having to play without Milano in the lineup for a stretch. Last year, Bernard took a slight step back in coverage, but he was more active against the run. According to TruMedia, Bernard had 15 tackles for loss and made a tackle on 21.1 percent of his run plays.
Buffalo also re-signed Greg Rousseau to a four-year extension worth $80 million with $54 million guaranteed. That’s closer to the top of the market than Bernard’s deal, but given what was out there in free agency, Rousseau would have commanded much more had he hit the market next offseason.
Of course, the biggest deal the Bills gave out was the six-year extension for Josh Allen. Coming off an MVP season, Allen agreed to tear up his old contract and sign a $330 million deal with $250 million guaranteed. That guarantee is now the highest ever given out in an NFL contract, but it’s likely it ages much better than the previous high mark at the position.
The deal's average annual value is just $55 million. It’s a real $55 million per year because it won’t be tacked on to existing deals like other extensions. Getting that deal without Allen pushing for even a fake $60 million average annual value to match or better Dak Prescott is a massive win for Buffalo.
Loser: Teams Waiting On Extensions For Star Players
In the opposite direction, the Dallas Cowboys once again cost themselves money by not having an early extension in place. Micah Parsons is heading into the final year of his contract, and the price tag went up after Myles Garrett agreed to an extension that averages $40 million per year in new money. The previous high was set just a few days prior with a $35.5 million per year extension signed by Maxx Crosby.
Parsons was likely to hover around a $40 million average, but again, the longer the Cowboys wait, the more real that kind of money becomes. Take the Garrett deal. It’s a four-year, $160 million extension that averaged $40 million, but it’s tacked on to the two years and $45 million left on his deal for a total of six years and around $205 million.
The Browns get more time to both pay out the deal and spread it out on the cap. With fewer existing years to do that with, the Cowboys will be paying more money early on in the deal.
The same goes for the Cincinnati Bengals, who were also impacted by the Garrett signing after general manager Duke Tobin stated at the combine that Cincinnati had every intention of making Ja’Marr Chase the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league. That price went up from $34 million to $40 million this week.
That comes on top of the Bengals still needing to get a long-term deal done with Tee Higgins, who was tagged for the second time, and after allowing Trey Hendrickson to seek out a trade.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No team has had more success in keeping the band together than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the past few offseasons. When it looks like free agents will get priced out of the Buccaneers’ budget, they find a way to keep them in Tampa Bay.
Over the weekend, the Buccaneers announced they had re-signed linebacker Lavonte David to a one-year deal. David is still a good linebacker who makes things easier for others in the middle of the Tampa Bay defense. Even while David did not have the best season in coverage (79th in yards allowed per coverage snap), he’s still a smart and rangy player who can make good plays.
Ben Bredeson also re-signed on Monday, keeping this offensive line intact with the starting five that was out there in 2024. Bredeson just turned 27 years old and was a solid guard for the Buccaneers. He signed a one-year, $3 million deal last offseason and is back on a three-year, $22 million deal.
Bringing Chris Godwin back was the biggest win. Godwin re-signed for a three-year, $66 million deal with $44 million guaranteed. That average is just 19th among wide receivers. Godwin only played half a season but was incredible when on the field, finishing with a yards per route run rate that would have ranked ninth across a full season.
With another year of turnover at offensive coordinator, keeping as much of the personnel the same is a win for the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield.
Loser: Seattle Seahawks
In a vacuum, Seattle’s plan is clear. Get younger at quarterback, believe in the offensive system, and build around the third-year receiver who had an excellent second half of 2024. In practice? I’m not so sure.
Seattle traded away Geno Smith and DK Metcalf. The Smith deal brought back a third-round pick from the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Seahawks got a second-round pick from the Steelers in exchange for Metcalf. In both cases, the Seahawks got draft capital for players they were not interested in extending at the price the players were looking for. Metcalf already signed a $150-million extension, and we’re still waiting on what is expected to be a $40-$45 million per year deal for Smith with Las Vegas.
To replace Smith, the Seahawks signed Sam Darnold to a three-year, $110.5 million deal with $55 million guaranteed. That price tag is less than what had been thrown around in reports early in the offseason. It’s still a bit of a commitment from Seattle, but with just $55 million guaranteed, it’s not something that will sink the Seahawks for multiple years if it fails.
The deal does place a lot of faith in Klint Kubiak and the offensive system to both cover up the offensive line and keep Darnold from his worst tendencies under pressure. Even if that plays out to its best-case scenario, there’s still a much smaller margin for error to support the quarterback who still only finished 16th in EPA per play in 2024 despite his ideal surroundings.
The potential for this to fail feels much higher than the probability of Darnold repeating or surpassing his performance last year.
Winner: Defensive Backs
Defensive back can be a strange position in free agency. Occasionally, there is a cornerback who gets the bag and disappoints. Then there is a deep group of safeties who have to settle for cheap, short-term contracts. With corner and safety being two of the deep positions and money to spend, teams elected to pay some defensive backs.
Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn became the highest-paid defensive back on a four-year, $100 million extension with $70 million guaranteed. Jourdan Lewis became the league's highest-paid slot with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Other corners also got paid, with Carlon Davis signing for three years and $60 million with the New England Patriots, D.J. Reed signing for three years and $48 million with the Detroit Lions, Nate Hobbs signing for four years and $48 million with the Green Bay Packers, and Brandon Stephens signing for three years and $36 million with the New York Jets.
Safeties also got paid, with multiple players signing multi-year deals. Tre’Von Moehrig signed for three years and $51 million with the Carolina Panthers. Cam Bynum signed for four years and $60 million with the Indianapolis Colts. Talanoa Hufanga signed for three years and $45 million with the Denver Broncos.
The $17 million average for Moehrig places him fifth among safeties, while the $15 million average for Bynum and Hufanga would tie for eighth. These might not be three of the best 10 safeties in the league, but it does appear to be a market correction for paying a position that has not had much of a boost in free agency over the past few offseasons.
Losers: Offensive linemen who signed early
Before free agency started, tackles Ronnie Stanley and Alaric Jackson re-signed with their teams. Stanley returned to the Ravens for three years and $60 million, while Jackson stayed with the Rams for three years and $57 million.
Those were our two top tackles, and it made sense for their teams to want to keep them. It was also a good move for those two to stay on good offenses. But looking at the money that was given to the offensive linemen who did reach free agency, there would have been more money for players like Stanley and Jackson.
The Chiefs signed Jaylon Moore to a two-year $30 million deal with $21.4 million guaranteed. Moore did not make our ranking of the top 100 free agents and had a 5.2 percent blown block rate on just 155 pass-blocking snaps last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. He had a 6.1 percent blown block rate on 115 pass-blocking snaps in 2023.
Dan Moore received $50 million guaranteed over four years and a total of $84 million from the Tennessee Titans. The Titans were desperate for offensive line help, and the signing of Moore will allow Tennessee to slide J.C. Latham back to the right side. However, Moore's becoming the sixth-highest-paid left tackle in the league is a bit of a surprise.
