NFL Analysis
3/20/25
5 min read
Why Tetairoa McMillan Isn’t the Receiver You Think He Is
Tetairoa McMillan is one of the most misunderstood prospects in the 2025 Draft class. He’s viewed as a physical X-receiver who can dominate press on the boundary, but can’t separate from man coverage. In reality, he struggles against press and doesn’t always play to his size, but he’s an underrated separator when given space to operate.
With his dominance at the catch point and improved YAC ability, McMillan has a unique skillset that will need to be carefully deployed to capitalize on his strengths and hide his vulnerabilities. Most people see his physical profile and assume he’ll be an X in the NFL, but I think he’d be better suited as a Z or big slot. He was actually much more effective in college lined up inside. In 2024 McMillan averaged 4.76 yards per route run in the slot and 2.57 at outside receiver. Against man coverage, he averaged 5.45 yards per route run in the slot and 3.17 at outside receiver.
BALL SKILLS
Tetairoa McMillan has the best ball skills of any receiver in this class and his dominance manifests in several ways. He consistently catches open targets and has a drop rate of just 4.94% over the last two seasons.
McMillan has an overwhelming physical advantage over most defensive backs in college football. At 6041/219, he uses his size to play above the rim and high-point jump balls. His arm length (31.5-inches) was actually shorter than expected, but that speaks to how effective he is on tape at extending for targets away from his frame.
What’s more impressive and more stable when projecting to the NFL are the catches that result from elite ball tracking, focus, and coordination. McMillan’s extraordinary catch radius puts him in striking range of any pass thrown in his general direction. But simply being tall and having long arms isn’t enough to make most of these plays.
He has the spatial awareness to understand where he is in relation to the trajectory of the ball, the flexibility to contort his body at awkward angles to adjust to the pass, and the hand-eye coordination to time his actions with the ball’s arrival. And most importantly, he has strong hands to secure the catch in traffic.
YAC
He became a serious YAC threat in 2024, unlocking a dynamic aspect of his game that didn’t exist early in his career. In 2024 he forced 29 missed tackles, more than doubling his total from the previous two seasons (14). He does a great job anticipating pursuit angles with his back to the defense and frequently makes the first defender miss after securing the catch. His long strides build to a decent top speed and he can burn open space over the middle of the field. While he could play with more physicality as a runner, his size occasionally allows him to shake off arm tackles.
ROUTE RUNNING
He isn’t the most sudden route runner, but he’s very fluid for a player of his size. His footwork and salesmanship noticeably improved from 2023 and he started using his steps purposefully at the top of routes to set up his breaks vs. off-man. He’s can cleanly sink his hips to decelerate and cut off stops and comebacks and has the fluidity to run whip routes efficiently. While he isn’t a burner, he’s smooth enough to stem defenders out of position on double moves and create some big plays down the field.
He still lacks the play strength and burst to consistently separate from tight man coverage. His footwork his efficient, but he isn’t explosive enough at the break point to create space from defenders that are in his hip pocket. If his opponent’s in phase at the top of the route, he usually stays in phase through the break. He also gets weighed down by grabby coverage and his momentum is restricted when the defender has a hand on his jersey.
Even though he can decelerate fairly quickly, his speed doesn’t threaten cornerbacks down the sideline. They can stay balanced through the stem and drive on the comeback once they feel McMillan start to tap the breaks.
But when the defender gives him some cushion at the line of scrimmage and he has a clean runway to build speed, McMillan can separate against off-man.
PRESS
My biggest concern with Tetairoa McMillan is his inability to beat press coverage. He lacks the burst off the line of scrimmage to stack his opponent within the first few steps and he rarely ends up creating vertical separation. Most of his targets down the sideline were tightly contested, and even though he won those at a relatively high rate in college, he’ll have much less of a physical advantage over NFL defenders. Because he lacks the vertical push to win with a linear release, he’s forced to take wide departure angles off the line of scrimmage and he frequently gets blanketed and walled off to the sideline. He reportedly ran somewhere in the mid-4.5s at his pro day, which lines up with the tape.
His mediocre speed and explosiveness also prevents him from using the threat of a deep route to create intermediate separation. Since defenders aren’t worried about getting beat vertically, many of his release fakes aren’t plausible and they have the freedom to play him top-down and squat on underneath routes.
To improve against press-man, he will need to start weaponizing his size at the line of scrimmage. There were a couple examples in 2024 of McMillan swiping down a press jam to win the release:
