Analysis

10/12/20

6 min read

Week 5 Stat Review

Let's look at some of the keys stats from three of Week 5's more intriguing outcomes:

Steelers 38, Eagles 29

Unexpected WR Explosion

Steelers rookie second-round WR Chase Claypool was the 11th receiver drafted in the 2020 draft
He had 7 receptions for 110 yards and 3 receiving TDs, as well as 1 rushing TD
He became just the fourth rookie to score 4 TDs in one game, joining Emmitt Smith, Earl Campbell, Gale Sayers and Jim Brown -- all Hall of Famers
The last Steeler to score 4 TDs in one game was Roy Jefferson in 1968
He is the seventh WR since merger to record a 3-plus TD game in one of his first five games
He is also the first Steelers rookie since Franco Harris in 1972 to have a rushing TD and a receiving TD in one game
Eagles second-year WR Travis Fulgham could not be stopped either, catching 10 passes for 152 yards and 1 TD
He is the Eagles’ first 100-yard receiver since Alshon Jeffery last year in Week 13
He was waived by two teams between August 9-19 before being claimed by the Eagles, where he stuck
He joins George Kittle and Davante Adams as the only receivers to have 10-plus catches, 150-plus yards and a TD in a game this season
Fulgham had more receiving yards this week (152) than any other Eagles WR had combined through the first four weeks

Wentz's Ball Security Continues

Carson Wentz played better than he has all season in this matchup against one of the top defenses in the NFL, but still struggled with turnovers
The Steelers defensive front wasn’t as dominant as expected, but they still got to Wentz 5 times in this game and have now gone 61 straight games with a sack
Wentz has a lack of weapons but his ball security issues have taken them out of some close games (including this one)
Wentz threw 2 INTs for a total of 8 INTs on the season
8 INTs in 5 games is the most since his rookie season
He has thrown twice as many INTs as he has TDs this season
In each of his first three seasons, Wentz threw just 7 INTs, which he has already surpassed this season

Big-Play Ability or Lack of Quality Play in the Secondary?

The Eagles and Steelers combined for 11 explosive plays (15-plus yards), gaining a total of 270 yards as well as four total “big plays” (plays of 20-plus yards)
The Eagles three starting CBs played well and were able to limit the explosive plays allowed
They combined for 24 targets and 13 receptions for 95 total yards
Allowing a combined 7.31 yards per reception
The Steelers three starting CBs did not have as much luck
They allowed 12 receptions on 20 targets for 188 yards and 2 TDs
15.66 yards per reception
The Steelers' usually very stout defense also allowed a 74-yard rushing TD to RB Miles Sanders, which was the longest of his career (70 yards over expectation, which is the second most on a rush this season)
It was the third-longest TD run against the Steelers since 2004

Raiders Offensive Boom

The Raiders scored 40-plus points at Arrowhead for the first time since their 41-38 OT win on Jan. 2, 2000
This win snaps the Chiefs' 13-game winning streak
QB Derek Carr is the first Raider to throw for over 300 passing yards at Arrowhead in 18 years
He completed 3 of 4 deep passes for 177 yards and 2 TDs in the first half. That yardage total represents more deep passing yards than he's had in any game over the last five seasons
The Raiders exploited the weakness they found in the Chiefs defense: the middle of the field
Carr attacked the middle third of the field 14 times, completing 12 of those passes for 234 yards and 3 TDs
Carr extended his streak to 316 pass attempts without an INT before he was picked off in the first quarter

The Way to Beat the Chiefs

In order to stop Patrick Mahomes and his explosive offense, the opposing team needs to control the clock
Mahomes has lost eight games in his young career; in seven of those losses, the opponent has won time of possession. In those eight losses, the opponents average 33:40 in time of possession
In addition to controlling the clock, the opponent needs to hit on downfield passes
Derek Carr completed 4 out of 6 deep pass attempts (20-plus yards) for 219 yards
Mahomes was only able to complete 3 out of his 10 deep pass attempts for 86 yards

The Back and Forth

The Giants led the game 17-3 with 13:30 left in the second quarter
The Giants win percentage was 67.65% going into that next Cowboys drive
The Cowboys then scored on a 1-yard Zeke Elliott TD before recovering a fumble and bringing it back for a score to tie the game at 17
These two drives flipped the win probability almost completely (after the fumble recovery for TD, the Cowboys had 61.64% win probability)
After Elliott's TD with 5:03 left in the third quarter, the Cowboys' win probability got to a game-high 84.79%
After the Dak Prescott injury, Andy Dalton came in and fumbled, shifting the game 23.3% in favor of the Giants as the Cowboys went from 81.81% win probability to 58.54%
Post fumble, the Giants went down and scored a TD and a 2-point conversion to go up by three. This gave the Giants a 61.42% win percentage
The Cowboys made a FG to tie it up, a defensive stop, then a FG to finally win

Cowboys Offensive Weapons Keep Shining

CeeDee Lamb had 8 receptions for 124 yards and is the only rookie since 1950 to have at least 5-plus receptions in each of his first five games
Elliott rushed for a 12-yard TD with 5:03 left in the third quarter, which was 8 yards over expected, according to Next Gen Stats
The TD probability on that play was 2.9%, which was the most improbable TD run in the red zone for Elliott since 2018
According to Next Gen Stats, when Andy Dalton hit Michael Gallup 38 yards down the field to set up the game-winning FG, he had .3 yards of receiver separation and .3 yards of sideline distance
This made the catch only 15.7% probable
Gallup excels on the Cowboys offense on go routes. He leads the league in targets and receptions on go routes, according to Next Gen Stats

Other Statistical Notes

Rams DL Aaron Donald (4.0 sacks) and LB Troy Reeder (3.0) were the first duo to record 3.0 sacks each in a game since Whitney Mercilus (3.5) and J.J. Watt (3.0) in Week 17 of the 2015 season
The last Rams duo to do it was Robert Quinn (3.0) and Chris Long (3.0) vs. Seattle in Week 8 of 2013

Tags: Chase Claypool, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys See More