Here are some interesting Week 13 matchups we’ve got our eyes on:
Browns (8-3) at Titans (8-3)
This matchup features two of the top eight rushing attacks in the league by EPA per rush and the Browns are 29th in EPA per rush allowed. Look for another big day from Derrick Henry.
According to fivethirtyeight.com, the Browns currently have a 78% chance to make the playoffs and the Titans are a virtual lock at 97%. With a win, the Browns’ playoff odds would rise to 94%, while a loss would drop them to 70%.
Rams (7-4) at Cardinals (6-5)
The Rams’ defense is quietly the second best in the NFL in EPA allowed per play and they will be tested by the Cardinals’ league-best rushing attack.
WR DeAndre Hopkins accounts for over 34% of the Cardinals’ receiving yards, and a tough matchup against CB Jalen Ramsey might be enough to give the Rams an edge.
The Cardinals currently have a 52% chance to make the playoffs. A win would increase their odds to 74% while a loss would drop them 32%. With a loss, the Rams’ playoff odds would be 78%, while a win would make them a virtual lock.
Patriots (5-6) at Chargers (3-8)
The Patriots’ rushing offense and Chargers’ rush defense both rank in the top seven in EPA per rush. If New England is forced to throw the ball, it does not bode well as they rank 26th in EPA per pass.
Justin Herbert is poised for a big day against the Patriots’ defense, which ranks 27th defending the pass. The rookie record for TD passes in a season is 27, and Herbert is four away with six games left.
New England is a long shot to make the playoffs, but a win here would increase their playoff odds from 13% to 21% while a loss would all but eliminate them.
Bills (8-3) at 49ers (5-6)
This matchup pits the fifth-ranked Bills offense against the eighth-ranked 49ers defense. San Francisco will be down to their third-string nickel this week, presenting some opportunities for Cole Beasley to make an impact.
Buffalo struggles to defend the run, with the 25th-ranked rushing defense, so look for Raheem Mostert to have a big day on the ground.
A Niners win here would bump their odds from 28% to 41%, while a loss would see them slide to 17%.
Colts (7-4) at Texans (4-7)
This matchup favors the Colts, as their sixth-ranked pass defense matches up well with the Texans’ fourth-ranked pass offense. Philip Rivers will be the difference in this game against a Texans defense that ranks last in the league in EPA allowed.
This is a big game for the Colts’ playoff chances as a win would increase their odds from 54% to 72% and a loss would see them drop to 32%.