Expert Analysis
4/19/22
6 min read
Which Players Will Fall Further Than Expected in the NFL Draft?
At this point in draft season most interviews have been conducted, players have participated in all-star games, and Pro Day and Combine testing has been completed. Because of this rumors from the media start to become more truthful as they start to hear which players certain teams like. However, rankings found in the media can often be flawed in some manner, and many players that were well regarded before may not be as highly viewed now in part due to injuries or testing question marks. As a result, below are seven draft prospects who may be drafted lower than expected by public prognosticators.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Going into the combine it was hard to find a player with more hype and rising faster up media draft boards than Treylon Burks.Â
Burks brings a unique skill set to the table, as he operated frequently out of the slot, received touches from the backfield, and consistently won at the catch point. His skill set was even more intriguing considering how well he moves for his size.Â
Prior to Indianapolis, freaky numbers were rumored for Burks, but he ultimately put up just pedestrian numbers, as his forty was just 37th percentile, his 3-cone was 9th percentile, and his vertical jump was 21st percentile among receivers.Â
While he is still a high-level prospect, considering the talent of this receiver class, it would not be too much of a surprise if he slips a bit.
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M
Spiller came into the season on the Heisman watchlist and has been a workhorse over the past three seasons for the Aggies despite not yet being 21 years old. While the RB class is deeper than it is filled with stars, the consensus top RB still may be up for grabs.Â
Spiller had a chance to make some headway in that competition but did not test as well as many would have hoped. Spiller is without a doubt a good prospect, but his 7th percentile vertical jump and 22nd percentile broad jump may cause him to slip down draft boards a bit. Â
Jalen Wydermyer, TE, Texas A&M
Similar to the RB class, the 2022 TE class is one with many draftable prospects and players who will be able to make an NFL impact but lacks a clear top guy or guys. For Wydermyer, another Aggie standout, his ability to get open and produce as a receiver and his success against SEC defenses led many to believe that he would be one of the first TEs off of the board.Â
That said, Wydermyer measured in at just 27th percentile height and ran a concerning forty-yard dash at his Pro Day of 5.03 seconds, a less than ideal number for a receiving-first TE.Â
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
The CB class is very talented, with a handful of players that could easily hear their names called in the first round and several others that are probably just outside of that. McCreary fits the latter group, as his tape speaks for itself. He is a highly competitive, instinctual, and productive man to man corner who took on the hardest assignments in college on a week-to-week basis over the past three seasons.Â
McCreary is not the biggest or fastest athlete but what really hurts his draft stock, is his 0 percentile arm length and 1st percentile wingspan, both of which may cause him to fall and force him to play out of the slot rather than on the outside.Â
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central MichiganÂ
Bernhard Raimann is and has been one of the most intriguing prospects of this entire draft class. Rankings of Raimann vary, perhaps more than any other draft prospect, as he has become very controversial.Â
The Central Michigan star is a former TE before he transitioned to playing OT, so his freakish height and athleticism are why so many are very high on him. However, due to his position switch, he is understandably very raw and technique and leverage issues are easy to find on tape. Both of those were evident during his Senior Bowl week.Â
Raimann will need time to develop once he enters the league, and for a player who is already 24.6 years old, teams may steer clear of him near the top of the draft in favor of either younger or more pro-ready players.Â
John Metchie III, WR, AlabamaÂ
Metchie's situation is a unique one in an unfortunate sense. With loads of Alabama receiver talent entering the draft the past few years, it was finally Metchie’s turn to take over the reins in 2022 and be a first round pick.Â
While he was very productive operating as Bryce Young’s go-to reliable threat, he was outshined by teammate Jameson Williams. Both were destined to be first round picks, as Metchie is a smooth mover with good hands, excellent route running ability, and keen processing ability.Â
That said, Metchie tore his ACL late in the season, which kept him out of all the offseason testing that Metchie needed. Beyond clearing medicals, combine testing would have been vital for Metchie to prove himself as an above the line athlete after recovery. Due to the other high level athlete receivers in this class, Metchie may wait a while to get selected.Â
Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South CarolinaÂ
Leading into the season, it would not have been uncommon to hear Enagbare as one of the top draft eligible edge rushers named by media prognosticators. Enagbare flashed some good production and impressive pressure rates off the edge during the season, not to mention he has a very good 87th percentile arm length.Â
However, with a deeper dive into his game, it became evident that Enagbare is a bit raw in both the run and pass games, and had struggles with balance. When it came to testing, while he had an explosive vertical jump, he measured in at just 27th percentile in weight, 37th percentile in his forty, and 17th percentile in his 10-yard split, which is less than ideal for a raw player being relied on to win off the edge.Â
Enagbare will likely be a Day 2 pick, but could fall even deeper throughout Day 2 or even 3, given the depth of this edge class.
