Super Bowl

Player Prop Happy Hour: Early Super Bowl Props

The biggest week in prop betting is upon us, and The 33rd Team’s Betting and Fantasy experts have you covered with the best Super Bowl player props.

 

Ryan Reynolds’ Top 3 Props

Patrick Mahomes Oover Pass Completions 24.5 (-125 on BetMGM)

  • Patrick Mahomes has gone over this number in 11 of 19 games this season, including the playoffs. The Chiefs are the most pass-centric offense in the league. They’re also projected to be a slight underdog in this game, so we can either reasonably expect this game to be close or for Kansas City to have to play from behind.
  • I also still expect more short throws to help Mahomes manage the pressure on his high ankle sprain. With the Chiefs going up against a talented Eagles defense, I could see an uptick of dump-off passes to running backs and outside screens to receivers.
  • The Chiefs’ perimeter receivers are in a pretty tough spot here against James Bradberry and Darius Slay, leading to more passes to the middle of the field. I think there’s a 70% chance this line goes over 24.5.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Over Tackles 5.5 (+115 on DraftKings)

  • Kansas City’s high-volume passing game puts the over in play. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a super-versatile player, playing roughly half his snaps as a safety, a quarter of them at slot corner and another quarter in the box. He saw a bit of an uptick in slot corner snaps when Avonte Maddox was banged up in Week 18 and again in the Divisional Round. He’s only beaten this number in five of 12 regular-season games. However, he’s had exactly five tackles in four other games, and another with five in the playoffs. So even when he falls below this, he’s right there within striking distance.

 

Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 Yards Receiving (-115 on DraftKings)

  • This number’s a little lower than I think it should be. With that said, I’m not in love with it because I think potentially every Eagles receiver can get there. It’s one of the problems with picking any of their over/unders throughout the playoffs for me. That said, the Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points to the tight end position in the slot this year. Dallas Goedert plays 29% of his snaps in the slot.
  • Before Goedert got hurt, he was third in the league in yards after the catch, which is kind of mind-blowing if you really think about it. But part of the reason for that is because they design short-passing plays for him. So we can expect at least one or two of those. He beat this number in 9 of 14 games this year.
  • One issue I have with this, looking at it from a Chiefs’ perspective, they faced the 49ers’ George Kittle and the Raiders’ Darren Waller this year. Kittle had 98 yards receiving, Waller had 35 late in the year. But they didn’t play a top tight end otherwise. Both Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich of the Broncos reached 40 yards receiving against the Chiefs later in the season. So I think Goedert has a chance to reach 45.5 yards.

Ben Wolby’s Top 3 Props

Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)

  • I was on Miles Sanders over 55.5 rushing yards early in the week. It’s since moved to 57.5 yards. When the Eagles are going up against bad rush defenses, Sanders has a good game. We’ve taken Sanders rushing overs against bad rushing defenses before.
  • But Kansas City, they don’t have a bad rushing defense; it’s just average. The Chiefs were ranked 15th throughout the regular season, but if we take a look at how they’ve been in the playoffs, they actually haven’t been great. They’re the second-worst playoff team when it comes to rushing DVOA. However, last week they held Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to a combined 41 rushing yards. We did see Travis Etienne get 62 yards on just 10 carries in the Divisional Round. Sanders’ attempts currently sit around 13.5.
  • Here’s where I get sold on this prop. If we take a look at games where Jalen Hurts has started, Sanders is averaging 76.5 rushing yards per game. He’s over this number in nine of 15 games and three of those losses came against top-10 DVOA teams.

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-105 on DraftKings)

  • If you watched the show last week, you know I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards; he had four rushes, two that went for 11 and 14 yards, which is also higher than Hurts’ line. Why did I take this last week? Because quarterbacks rush at the third-highest rate against Kansas City, and they’ve been good at doing it. The Chiefs are bad against rushing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to quarterbacks this season, second-most in the NFL.
  • Hurts’ rushing attempts line is 10.5. He’s averaging 10 rushes per game (that are not kneel-downs). So 10 attempts against this defense? It’s going to be hard to keep him under that number when he is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards with 11 in the regular season.
  • Last week, Hurts faced San Francisco and the second-best rush DVOA. He still had a 14-yard rush, which would have topped this line against one of the best rush defenses, and it came in the third quarter when the 49ers were up by two touchdowns.
  • Hurts is going to run the ball all the time. Whether the Eagles are down or whether they’re up, he’s going to run the ball.

 

Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 Yards Passing (-117 on Caesars)

  • Hurts has only gone over this number in five of 18 games this year. Three of the games where he went over were against bottom-10 pass DVOA teams, including Chicago (last), Tennessee (28th) and Minnesota, which we were picking against all year. He also went over in a divisional game against Washington and against Pittsburgh without T.J. Watt.
  • Kansas City’s defense is average in pass DVOA. But during the second half of the season and the playoffs, there’s only one quarterback who has passed this number: Burrow. That is it. There have been so many other quarterbacks since Week 12 who have not topped this number. Furthermore, because it’s the Chiefs, the other quarterbacks were in a negative game script the entire time. Still, these quarterbacks were averaging just 204 yards per game, despite that losing game script.
  • The Eagles have the fourth-highest rush percentage among all teams in the regular season. Even when they are down by three or more, they are still rushing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Josh Larky’s Top 3 Props

Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games. He just hasn’t played much recently, and on top of that, he hasn’t been carrying the ball much. He’s had seven or fewer rushing yards in four of the last five games. It’s crazy this line is at 23.5.
  • McKinnon did beat that number once in those last five games when he had a season-high 11 carries for just 25 yards. So even when he had a season-high in carries, he barely cleared the number. McKinnon is averaging 1.8 yards per carry during the last five games.
  • The Eagles are an average run defense at this point. They were near the bottom early in the season. They fortified it by signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. Jordan Davis, their star first-round rookie, returned from injury.
  • There’s still a chance Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated for this game. I think there’s a good chance he’s active instead of Ronald Jones, and I think they like him more than Jones. I don’t think this affects Isiah Pacheco at all. But I do think this could actually affect the few carries McKinnon has. They could just go to Edwards-Helaire as they deploy McKinnon mostly as a third-down back.

Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-125 on Draftkings)

  • Everything I talked about with McKinnon above still applies. This guy does not get a lot of carries. If we look at carries over 9.5 yards, we’re gonna take him under. He’s gone over this in five of his 87 carries in the regular season and in the playoffs; that is 1 in 17.5 carries. As I mentioned, his season-high is 11 carries. Only in one of his last five games did he reach five carries. I don’t understand how you would see this line and take the over.

 

Jalen Hurts OverPass Completions 21.5 (-108 on FanDuel)

  • This is -130 at pretty much every other book because people love this. This is a great play. But we’re gonna get it at -108.
  • Hurts was over this number in just five of his 17 games this season, including the playoffs. But let’s look at the matchup. Quarterbacks against Kansas City average 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game. Twenty-four is much higher than 21.5. And that includes the Malik Willis game, where he completed five passes. If we look at the 19 games the Chiefs have played, including playoffs, the opposing quarterback had more than 21.5 completions in 15 of them.
  • I think the Chiefs are the Vikings of completions overs because in pretty much every game, the opposing quarterback has an over. Here are the four quarterbacks who didn’t have more than 21.5 completions against the Chiefs this year: Derek Carr, Willis, Bryce Perkins and a game against the Texans where Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel split duties.
  • I understand Hurts runs a lot, but the Eagles have been very opponent-specific with their game plans. The Chiefs quietly allowed about 6.5 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is incredibly low.

 

Betting

9 Player Props to Target for 2023 NFL Wild-Card Weekend

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolbransky each name three of their favorite player props for the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend.

Larky’s Top-3 Props

Dalvin Cook Longest Rush OVER 15.5 Yards (-125 DraftKings)

The Giants have allowed running backs to go over this number in 14 of 17 games. Cook faced the Giants in Week 16 and went over it. New York’s run defense allows 5.2 yards per carry to running backs, the second-worst average in the NFL.

Rachaad White Longest Rush UNDER 11.5 Yards (-120 DraftKings)

White had 129 rushing attempts this year, five of them were 12 or more yards. He and Leonard Fournette split some work. He’s getting nine carries per game, and one-in-25 go for 12 or more yards. Dallas has a well-above-average run defense. White has only shown he can do this against really bad run defenses.

Trenton Irwin OVER 5.5 Yards Receiving (-115 DraftKings)

If he does not play, the line is voided. He has at least 5 yards in every game, with at least 12 yards in 8 of 9 games he has played. If Irwin is active and getting snaps, he’s probably going to get his customary one or more catches as he has had in every game he has played this season.

Reynolds’ Top-3 Props

Travis Etienne OVER 75.5 Yards Rushing (-115 DraftKings)

This is primarily a bet against the Chargers’ run defense. Etienne’s beaten this in seven of his last 12 games. I expect this game to be close for the most part, so I’m pretty confident this hits. (UPDATE: Etienne rushed for 109 yards on Saturday night).

T.J. Hockenson OVER 4.5 Receptions (-110 DraftKings)

He’s beated this number in seven of his 10 games as a Viking. He’s had eight or more targets in seven of his 10 games as a Viking, as well. He went for 13-109-2 on 16 targets against the Giants a couple of weeks ago. The Giants have given up the eighth-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Deebo Samuel OVER 12.5 Yards Rushing (-115 BetMGM)

I expect Samuel’s usage to change now that they’re in the playoffs and he’s at full usage. Last year in the playoffs, Samuel had seven or more carries in all of three of the 49ers’ games. I’m figuring Samuels sees 3-5 carries and hits this number pretty easily. (UPDATE: Samuel rushed for 32 yards on Saturday afternoon.)

 

Wolby’s Top-3 Props

Cameron Dicker OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+105 DraftKings)

He has hit this in 8 of 11 games this year. TIAA Stadium in Jacksonville has the second-highest field goal percentage with at least seven games played in it. Road kickers are averaging 2.5 field goals per game there. (UPDATE: Dicker made 3 of his 4 attempted field goals on Saturday night.)

T.J. Hockenson Longest Reception UNDER 18.5 (-120 DraftKings)

He saw 13 receptions in Week 16 against the Giants. None were longer than 16 yards. The Giants have only allowed this number in five games; it was seven tight ends who have one longer than this, and they’re all guys the Giants didn’t game-plan for. They’re not game-planning for Peyton Hendershot, Jake Ferguson or Trevon Wesco.

Darius Slayton Longest Reception OVER 21.5 Yards (-120 DraftKings)

He has done this in six of his last eight games. Minnesota not only allows the most receptions of 23 or more yards to wide receivers, but by far they allow the most amount to receivers lined up wide. Slayton has been lining up out of the wide slot the most. He has more receiving yards and targets out wide than any other Giants receiver.

WATCH: Matchups to Target in Saturday’s Games

Betting

NFL Week 16 Player Props: How Will Bad Weather Affect Receiving Props?

In the Week 16 edition of The 33rd Team’s Player Prop Happy Hour, Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolbransky discuss the top 15 player props for Week 16 in the NFL.

Josh Larky’s Top-5 Props

  1. Nelson Agholor UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on Bet365): “He’s been lower than this number in 8 of his 9 previous games. [Cincinnati] is pretty much a top-10 pass defense.”
  2. Joe Mixon UNDER 83.5 Total Yards (-115 on Bet365 and DraftKings): “I kind of think that [Samaje] Perine played well enough in [Mixon’s] absence to carve out a bigger role. … Patriots are ninth in Rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. If you look on The Edge, the Patriots only allow 3.9 yards per carry.”
  3. Alvin Kamara OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards: “Alvin Kamara’s in for a great yardage day. The Browns allow 5.4 yards per carry to running backs this season, the second-most in the NFL. There’s no warm bodies left in this offense.”
  4. Christian McCaffrey UNDER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on Bet365): “The Commanders have the fourth-best run defense, per Football Outsiders. He is coming off a massive workload (31 touches). It is not a Christian McCaffrey rushing week.”
  5. Dalvin Cook OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on Bet365): “He has at least 76 rushing yards in nine of 14 games this year. The Giants allow 5.4 yards per carry to running backs, tied for second-most in the NFL. And the Giants have allowed a running back to go higher than this number in 11 of 14 games this year.”

Ryan Reynolds’s Top-5 Props

  1. Mark Andrews OVER 44.5 Yards Receiving (-115 on DraftKings): “The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot; Mark Andrews plays the majority of his snaps in the slot. On top of that, Andrews is coming off a fantastic season … a lot of that came with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.”
  2. Desmond Ridder Throws INT vs. Baltimore (-115 on DraftKings): “He didn’t breach 100 yards passing last week in his NFL debut. I believe he had a 50 percent completion percentage. Expect a negative game script for the Falcons.”
  3. T.J. Watt OVER .75 Sacks (-105 on DraftKings): “The Steelers have a pretty considerable trench advantage against the Raiders’ below-average offensive line. The Steelers have been trending up. Bet on the Steelers’ headliner in a plus matchup at good odds.”
  4. Christian McCaffrey UNDER 20.5 Attempts (-115 on DraftKings): “In his eight games as a 49er, he has gone under this number seven times. With the division clinched … we can expect some type of load management this week.”
  5. Jerick McKinnon OVER 21.5 Yards Receiving (-110 on DraftKings): “He has beat this number in four of his last five games. On top of that, the Seahawks’ style of defense invites dump-offs to running backs.”

Ben Wolby’s Top-5 Props

  1. D.J. Moore OVER 53.5 Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sports Book): He has gone over 53.5 yards in 2 of 3 games he has played with Sam Darnold, and he is already top 10 in wide receiver target-share percentage this year. He has only improved that with Darnold playing.
  2. Geno Smith OVER 1.5 Touchdowns (+110 on DraftKings): I’ve got a list of quarterbacks who did not throw two touchdowns against Kansas City: Malik Willis, Bryce Perkins, and Jeff Driskel. This is automatically a phenomenal bet. Geno has done this in 11 of 14 games, and the Chiefs have allowed it in 12 of 14.
  3. Joe Mixon Longest Rush UNDER 13.5: Mixon just hasn’t been efficient all year long. The majority of every good thing he’s done this year came in that game against Carolina. New England has allowed only eight rushes over 13.5 yards all season, and Mixon has only done this on six rushes out of 183 total.
  4. James Conner UNDER 17.5 Attempts: The Cardinals are likely to be in a negative game script. It is going to get ugly fast. They only ran the ball 30 percent of their plays down at least a touchdown last week, and that’s for a team that already runs the ball at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. Conner has topped this number only twice all year.
  5. Kirk Cousins OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110): The Vikings pass at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Cousins is averaging about 39 attempts in the NFL. Opponents against the Giants average 33 attempts a game.

For a full discussion of each prop, watch the video above.

Betting

NFL Week 15 Player Props: Slayton, Jones Could Be Giants’ Last Hope

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, and Ben Wolbransky each name five of their favorite props for Week 15 in The 33rd Team’s Player Prop Happy Hour.

Miles Sanders OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-105 on DraftKings) – Josh Larky

Chris Olave OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings) – Ben Wolbransky

Daniel Jones OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on DraftKings) – Ryan Reynolds

Tune in to the above video for 12 more props, along with some BONUS props at the very end.

Betting

Kirk, Heinicke Lead QB-Heavy Week 13 Player Props to Take

In the Week 13 edition of The 33rd Team’s Player Prop Happy Hour, quarterback bets lead the way, including Kirk Cousins and Taylor Heinicke to throw interceptions, as Josh Larky, Ben Wolbransky, and Ryan Reynolds bring you 15 player prop bets to make.

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