Josh Larky’s Week 16 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Larky’s Week 16 Fantasy Rankings
Below you’ll find my Week 16 fantasy rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-32 QB Rankings, top-59 RB Rankings, top-65 WR Rankings, top-23 TE Rankings, and top-15 DST rankings. For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup and implied team total, according to Vegas. For example, the Minnesota […]

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Analysis

Underrated Lions’ Defense ‘Set up Well’ vs. Panthers

Robert Smith is calling the Lions vs. Panthers game for FOX this weekend. On Friday, Smith met with Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who explained how key personnel updates are helping his unit improve at the most important time of the season.

Betting

Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks from Larky & Wolby

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 18 (!!) Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

The Freebie: Christian McCaffrey HIGHER than 0.5 Total Yards

  • Underdog lets you use this special line once, and you’re able to spend up to $25 when pairing it with other lines.

Joe Mixon LOWER than 84.5 Total Yards – Josh Larky

  • Mixon has been LOWER in seven of 12 games.
  • He has 16 touches in each game since returning from the concussion.
    • He was averaging 21 touches per game prior to his Week 11 concussion.
  • Mixon should be inefficient on the ground, as the Patriots are ninth in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
  • The Patriots allow just 3.9 yards per carry, and that’s not being offset in the receiving game, as they are right in the middle there – 14th most receiving yards per game to RBs. Both stats can be found using our flagship tool, The Edge.
  • Mixon is out-targeting Perine just eight to six since returning from the concussion.

Devin Singletary HIGHER than 8.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • The Bears run Cover 2 at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Josh Allen throws the ball to the RB position on 29% of his dropbacks when facing Cover 2 .
    • Allen is top-5 in yards per attempt when targeting his RBs against Cover 2.
  • James Cook has not taken over this backfield as a rusher or receiver.
    • Aside from the Week 13 game at New England, Singletary has out-snapped and out-touched Cook.
    • Despite this, Cook’s receiving yards line is higher. Those yards will go to Singletary.
  • Singletary is averaging 18.4 receiving yards per game (11 as the median), and has gone HIGHER in eight of 14 games.

Darius Slayton HIGHER than 51.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Slayton has been HIGHER in six of his past eight games.
  • He has a target share of at least 20% in seven of his past ten games.
  • The Vikings allow the second-most (200) receiving yards per game to wideouts, via The Edge.
  • Overall, passers average 7.9 yards per attempt against Minnesota, second-highest in the NFL, via The Edge.
  • Minnesota has allowed 24 WR games HIGHER than this number (1.7 per game), via The Edge.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Isaiah Hodgins HIGHER than 34.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Hodgins has at least four receptions and 37 receiving yards in three straight games.
  • He’s run at least 32 routes in three straight games.
  • Minnesota has allowed 33 WR games HIGHER than this (2.4 per game), via The Edge.

Sam Darnold HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Ben Wolby

  • Over their seven game 6-1 streak, the Lions lead the NFL in interceptions with eight, slightly more than one per game.
  • Darnold hasn’t yet thrown an interception this season (through three games) despite throwing 52 in his 52 career games as a starter.
    • This makes for a great regression play.
  • Teams are passing against the Lions at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL.

Nelson Agholor LOWER than 34.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • He’s been LOWER in eight of his past nine games.
  • The Bengals allow the 20th most receiving yards per game to wideouts, per The Edge.
  • Cincinnati is the 11th-highest pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders.

Dalvin Cook HIGHER than 76.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Cook has at least 76 rushing yards in nine of 14 games this year.
  • The Giants allow 5.4 yards per carry to RBs, second-most in the NFL via The Edge.
  • The Giants have allowed a RB to go HIGHER than this number in 11 of 14 games this year.

Tyler Boyd HIGHER than 33.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Tyler Boyd has 33 or more yards in ten of his 13 full games.
  • Boyd has better stats with a healthy Ja’Marr Chase on the field (see below table for per-game numbers).
Split Receptions Yards Per Game
Yards After Catch Per Reception
With Chase 3.8 55 5
Without Chase 3 35 2.4

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Derrick Henry HIGHER than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns – Josh Larky

  • RBs have scored rushing TDs against the Texans in ten of 14 games.
  • Henry has scored a rushing TD in nine of 14 games this year.

Alvin Kamara HIGHER than 65.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Kamara has 75% of the team’s RB carries over the past four games.
  • The Browns allow 5.4 yards per carry to RBs this year, second-most in the NFL, via The Edge.
  • The Browns are 30th in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
  • The Browns have allowed a RB to go HIGHER than this number in nine of the past 11 games.
  • Kamara had 21 carries last week, and this game should have the worst weather of the weekend, forcing both teams to rely on the run games.
    • Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry won’t play in this game, either.

Desmond Ridder HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Josh Larky

  • The Ravens have 14 interceptions through 14 games this season, with interceptions in eight of those 14 games.
  • Ridder had two interceptable passes in his first start last week, according to PlayerProfiler.

Jauan Jennings LOWER than 3.0 Receptions – Ben Wolby

  • Jennings hasn’t amassed higher than three receptions in a single game with Brock Purdy as a passer.
  • Jennings is fifth in target share with Purdy as a starter.
    • He runs the fewest routes of all his teammates.
  • Even with Deebo out last week, Jennings still had only three receptions, and only saw a 30% increase in his routes run.
    • While he’ll be on the field more, he isn’t a primary focal point in this offense.
  • Teams pass the ball at the fifth-lowest rate against Washington, and since Purdy took over in Week 13, the 49ers pass at the fifth-lowest rate.

J.K. Dobbins HIGHER than 56.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Dobbins has at least 13 carries and 120 rushing yards in both games since returning from IR.
  • The Falcons are the 26th-ranked rush defense, via DVOA.
  • The Ravens are projected to win this game by a TD, so game script should favor the run game.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Christian McCaffrey LOWER than 79.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Star defensive end Chase Young returns for Washington this week.
  • The Commanders have the fourth-best run defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
  • McCaffrey has been LOWER than this number in nine of 14 games this year.

Gardner Minshew HIGHER than 13.0 Rushing Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Minshew is HIGHER than this number in 14 of 21 career games.
  • Every QB that had at least two non-kneeldown rushes against Dallas has topped 13 rushing yards.
    • Minshew averages 4.4 rushing attempts per game as a starter.

Mark Andrews HIGHER than 45.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Andrews has at least six targets in five straight games.
  • The Falcons allow the fourth highest yards per attempt (7.7) to passers, via The Edge.
  • This is a regression play, as Andrews’ usage has been strong throughout this season.

Curtis Samuel HIGHER than 28.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Samuel has at least 28 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this year.
  • Samuel has an 81% slot rate this year, via The Edge.
    • The 49ers allow the sixth most fantasy points to the slot this year, per The Edge.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

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