NFL Analysis
2/6/25
22 min read
Super Bowl LIX Preview: What To Watch When Each Team Has The Ball
Super Bowl LIX is a rematch of the game we saw just two seasons ago between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Only a few things remain the same from that meeting, though.
The Chiefs are looking to win their third Super Bowl in a row, while the on-field play and results have not quite meshed throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been one of the league’s most well-rounded teams, thanks to a deep offense and a defense that developed into one of the best in the league during the second half of the season under Vic Fangio.
Currently, the 1.5-point line favors the Chiefs, suggesting a close game.
With so much changing from just two years ago, we’ll examine what to watch and what could decide the game when each team has the ball.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
When the Eagles Have The Ball
Will Saquon Barkley Break Through?
The Eagles' season has been based around the big play, mostly coming from Saquon Barkley on the ground. Barkley, the free-agent signing from the Giants, rushed for more than 2,000 yards during the regular season, and he’s averaged 6.7 yards per carry so far in the playoffs.
Barkley has 21 rushes of 20 or more yards, including the postseason, and a 13.1 percent rate of runs that have gained 10 yards or more.
Philadelphia mixes one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league with a diverse run game that mixes up the looks at the point of attack. Per FTN, among running backs with at least 200 carries, Barkley was seventh in the rate of runs on inside zone (33.5 percent) and eighth in the use of power (16.5 percent). He’s averaged 7.3 yards per carry on power runs.
The Eagles have been so good at creating space for Barkley to run. He’s averaged 2.53 yards before contact through the playoffs, which is the highest mark in the league. Barkley has more total rushing yards before contact this season (1,038) than he did overall in all but two seasons with the Giants.
Part of creating space involves those different looks at the line of scrimmage. Many teams pull guards on power runs to lead block, but the Eagles often use their tackles.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
Those explosive run plays have been a killer for opposing defenses, with nine of his 21 carries of 20 or more yards coming in the fourth quarter.
But Barkley can also be taken down for a loss. There has still been a boom-bust element to this running game throughout the season, but the boom has been fairly consistent. In the playoffs, Barkley has been stuffed on 18.3 percent of his rushing attempts and only has a 37.9 percent success rate.
Explosive runs have not been the way to beat the Chiefs' defense for most of the 2024 season. Kansas City finished the regular season with the third-lowest rate of explosive runs allowed at 7.1 percent.
Though in the past four games when the starters have played, starting with Week 16 and through the playoffs excluding Week 18, the Chiefs have allowed an explosive run rate of 14.7 percent.
Kansas City’s success against the run hasn’t come from big run stuffs, either. The Chiefs were just 26th in the rate of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. Instead, Kansas City has been excellent at not allowing runs to break through the second level. According to FTN, the Chiefs rank second in second-level yards and open field yards allowed.
One area where the Chiefs have struggled is against no-huddle runs. In non-garbage time situations, Kansas City has a 35.5 percent rushing success rate against no-huddle plays, the lowest of any team. Philadelphia ranked second in the use of no-huddle plays during the season.
The Eagles are likely to chip away with a heavy dose of rushing attempts and will take minimal gains, as long as they are not stopped behind the line, in the hope that one of those Barkley runs can eventually break free.
Blitz Or No Blitz
Blitzing has been a way to disrupt Jalen Hurts for much of his career, especially the previous two seasons. The last time these teams played in the Super Bowl, Hurts was coming off a season in which he averaged -0.02 EPA per play against the blitz.
In that matchup, Steve Spagnuolo blitzed Hurts on 35.7 percent of his dropbacks, but Hurts was successful enough with 0.16 EPA per play and a 40 percent success rate. Plus, he was great when not blitzed.
This season, Hurts has been better against extra pass rushers. There have been answers built into the offense with Kellen Moore at the helm, and the quarterback is not just throwing up go balls in an attempt to beat the extra rushers. Including the playoffs, Hurts has averaged 0.24 EPA per play with a 51.1 percent success rate against the blitz. Those figures both rank sixth among quarterbacks.
However, Hurts does have a fairly big split depending on how those blitzes are sent. When man coverage is played behind the blitz, Hurts has averaged 0.44 EPA per play. But against zone blitzes, Hurts has only averaged 0.08 EPA per play and has taken a sack on 18.3 percent of dropbacks.
Jalen Hurts vs. Type Of Blitz, 2024 (Per Trumedia)
| Blitz Type | EPA/Ply | Success% | aDOT | Comp% | Expl Pass% | PressToSack% | Avg Time To Throw | Scrmbl Rate | Sack% |
| Man | 0.44 | 54.7% | 8.8 | 64.6% | 22.5% | 19.4% | 2.66 | 5.3% | 8.5% |
| Zone | 0.08 | 49.4% | 5.9 | 70.7% | 12.7% | 34.2% | 2.91 | 10.1% | 18.3% |
Hurts holds onto the ball longer against zone blitzes when he doesn’t have the immediate 1-on-1 answer against man coverage. Against man blitzes, he’s thrown to wide receivers 66.2 percent of the time, but that drops to 55.2 percent against zone. That leaves time for more pressure, and when Hurts is pressured on blitzes, he’s averaging -0.21 EPA per play.
When blitzing, the Chiefs play zone 51 percent of the time, the 14th-highest rate in the league, and they are a much better zone blitzing team, averaging 0.22 EPA per play, the third-best mark. On zone blitzes, the Chiefs have a 51 percent pressure rate this season, the highest rate in the league. Those pressures can come from anywhere.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
One way to get the Chiefs out of bringing extra rushers is by using heavier personnel. Kansas City has a 33.8 percent blitz rate while facing 11 personnel this season but just a 15 percent blitz rate against 12 personnel.
The Eagles have bumped their 12 personnel usage from 29.9 percent in the regular season to 31 percent in the playoffs. Through three playoff games, Philadelphia has averaged 0.18 EPA per play with two tight ends on the field.
Philadelphia used 12 personnel on 42.1 percent of play against Green Bay in the wild-card round but did not have overwhelming offensive success in that game. However, it could be a path to keep more Kansas City linebackers on the field and force the Chiefs to break some tendencies when sending extra pressure.
Do The Chiefs Man up?
While the Chiefs zone blitz a ton, they still use one of the league's highest rates of man coverage. Kansas City is 10th in the rate of man coverage played. However, the Chiefs mix up those looks and do not play as most defenses would, with heavy zone coverage on early downs and man coverage on third down. The Chiefs are often the opposite, playing the ninth-highest rate of man coverage on early downs and a mix on third down.
The Eagles, of course, have killed man coverage this season. Hurts has averaged 0.37 EPA per play against man with a 55.7 percent success rate and 9.4 yards per attempt. He’s third in EPA per play against man and has seen it at the 14th-highest rate among quarterbacks.
Against man, Hurts recognizes the opportunities the receivers have while matching up against defensive backs in 1-on-1 scenarios. Hurts will throw crossers, gos, and slants to beat those man coverage looks. Few quarterbacks have more trust in their receivers to win those 1-on-1s, and so much of the Philadelphia passing game this season was about taking advantage of the talent difference on the outside.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
Kansas City ranked 29th in EPA per play while playing man coverage this season. When playing Cover-1, the Chiefs have allowed 8.3 yards per attempt.
The Chiefs trust Trent McDuffie to play aggressively on the outside. McDuffie has played press coverage on 37 percent of his coverage snaps through the playoffs, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s forced a tight window on 52 percent to targets but has also allowed 1.62 yards per coverage snap while playing press.
Last season, McDuffie played 45 percent of his snaps in the slot and was not asked to press as much, with L’Jarius Sneed taking that role. Now McDuffie could be tasked with guarding A.J. Brown on the outside. Brown averaged 3.6 yards per route run against press coverage this season.
Jaylen Watson might be a bigger piece of this puzzle, as he’ll likely be asked to cover DeVonta Smith on the other side of the field. Watson missed most of the season with an ankle injury he suffered in Week 7, but he returned in the Divisional Round and has played in the past two games.
With Watson, Kansas City's defense averaged 0.13 EPA per play in man coverage, and opposing quarterbacks completed 46.6 percent of their passes for 5.6 yards per attempt. Without Watson, the Chiefs averaged -0.41 in man, as quarterbacks completed 68.9 percent of passes for 8.2 yards per attempt.
Watson replaces an overmatched Nazeeh Johnson, who ranked 106th out of 113 qualified cornerbacks in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap during the regular season.
However, the Chiefs also play the second-highest rate of two-high coverages, which come with heavy zone looks. When the Chiefs play with middle of the field open coverages, they rank 12th in EPA per play.
Hurts has played better against single-high but hasn’t been bad against two-high coverages. However, there is a big difference in the style Hurts plays depending on the coverage look.
Against single-high coverages, Hurts often goes to his wide receivers, targeting them 60.2 percent of the time. That drops to 48.6 percent against two-high as he throws to running backs 22.4 percent of the time. There’s a clear difference in how the ball is distributed.
Jalen Hurts By MOF Coverage Type (per TruMedia)
Going 2x2
While trips formations and lining up the back to the trips side to create 4x1 looks to generate a numbers advantage has taken over the league, the Eagles have kept things a bit simpler.
Only the Indianapolis Colts — featuring former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen — used 2x2 formations at a higher rate (49.8 percent) than the Eagles this season (49.2 percent).
While lined up in 2x2 looks, the Eagles averaged 0.16 EPA per play with a 45.1 percent success rate. This was an incredibly efficient passing look, where Philadelphia averaged 0.25 EPA per dropback with a 51.7 percent success rate.
Here are three plays from the first half of the NFC Championship Game against the Washington Commanders.
On two of the three, Philadelphia used a short motion with Dallas Goedert to get a coverage indicator on the outside, and the Eagles often have a zone beater on one side and a man beater on the other. That motion allows Hurts to pick his side pre-snap.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
The Eagles can also use motion from a 3x1 set to a 2x2 look to get the defense to show its hand, as was the case on this fourth-and-5 against Washington.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
Kansas City’s defense has struggled against 2x2 looks. It has a 49.5 percent success rate against the pass, compared to a 58.4 percent success rate against trips formations.
A lot of that comes from motion and having to change coverage responsibilities with a player coming all the way across the formation. But that’s also been a way for opposing offenses to spread the Chiefs out and create some space underneath zone coverages to fit a throw in.
Finding The Script
During the regular season, the Eagles were one of the worst opening drive teams in the league. Philadelphia was 24th in EPA per drive on opening possessions and scored a touchdown just 11.8 percent of the time. The Eagles punted on 58.8 percent of their opening drives, tied for the league's fourth-highest rate.
In the playoffs so far, the Eagles have scored a touchdown on every opening drive. However, it’s not as if this offense has magically figured out the right script. Against the Packers, the Eagles got a gift of an opening kickoff fumble that placed the ball on Green Bay's 28-yard line. Then, against the Commanders, Barkley took the first play from scrimmage for a 60-yard touchdown.
A six-play, 74-yard drive against the Rams in the Divisional Round was the one successfully sustained opening drive. That was capped with a 44-yard Hurts touchdown run.
The Chiefs scored on 52.9 percent of opening drives in the regular season and on each in the playoffs, with one touchdown and one field goal. However, the defense has struggled on opening drives.
Including the playoffs, the Kansas City defense ranks 29th in EPA per drive on opening possessions and has allowed a touchdown 31.6 percent of the time.
Kansas City is more likely to test the waters on defense on those opening drives, playing with more linebackers and blitzing less often before settling in as the game progresses.
Chiefs Defense Opening Drives vs. After (2024, Per TruMedia)
| Def. Drive | Points/Dr | TD/Dr | YPP | Base | Nickel | Dime | Blitz |
| 1 | 2.62 | 31.6% | 6.2 | 36.3% | 49.2% | 14.5% | 24.0% |
| 2+ | 1.91 | 21.7% | 5.2 | 22.4% | 52.0% | 24.3% | 30.4% |
If the Eagles take advantage of that opportunity, then playing a ball-control style with the run game could become a more appealing and realistic strategy throughout the rest of the game.
When the Chiefs Have The Ball
Are There Any Deep Passes?
The Vic Fangio defense has been designed to stop deep and explosive passes. Shutting down quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes was the goal.
That’s been clear when Mahomes and Fangio have faced off against each other. Mahomes has been successful, averaging 0.12 EPA per play against Fangio defenses, but those explosives have not come.
Mahomes has just two completions that traveled 20 or more air yards against a Fangio defense. Here is the deepest one from a game against the Broncos in 2020.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
As the two-high revolution took over the league, it was still about the pre-snap shell. Teams would show two deep safeties and then have the option to rotate into a single-high coverage. Even Fangio had one of the highest rates of Cover-3 usage in the league despite starting most plays with a two-high shell.
However, teams playing against Mahomes sold out in those two-deep coverages to stop him from throwing down the field. As a result, the Chiefs adapted to a short-passing offense that took advantage of space and yards after the catch.
Mahomes’s average depth of target has dropped each year of his career. In 2018, the average Mahomes pass traveled 9.1 air yards. That figure was only 6.3 in 2024, the third-lowest among quarterbacks this season.
Teams have tried to throw deep against the Eagles this season. Opponents have thrown 20 or more air yards on 12.7 percent of attempts, which ranks 22nd in the league, but the Eagles have only allowed 24.7 percent of those attempts to be completed, the second-best rate in the league, and have allowed a 10.8 percent explosive pass rate, also second.
The Chiefs' goal coming into this season was to have Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy open up the downfield passing attack again, but Brown missed most of the season, and Worthy’s deep receiving never fully clicked.
As the Chiefs have gotten more comfortable throwing short, they’ve had better designs to get their playmakers into space. Worthy has been a much better catch-and-run receiver in the short area during the back half of the season. Since Week 14, Worthy has a 4.93-yard aDOT with a 22.8 percent target share. He’s been effective with 6.8 yards after the catch per reception.
While the Chiefs are comfortable there, Kansas City has also tried to open up some things down the field with different looks. Against the Texans. Worthy lined up in the backfield in a split-back look and went out in the shuffle motion the San Francisco 49ers used with Christian McCaffrey all last season. He ran down the field out of the backfield for a big play.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
Against the Bills, the Chiefs tried to get Brown open down the field on a deep crosser early in the game. The play was there, but cornerback Christian Benford was there just close enough to knock the ball away. These might be the kinds of deep passes the Chiefs try against the Eagles.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
Which Travis Kelce Shows Up?
For the second year in a row, there has been a different Travis Kelce in the playoffs compared to what he did in the regular season. Kelce averaged just 1.45 yards per route run in the regular season but has averaged 2.45 yards per route run in the playoffs. Much of that came from a seven-catch, 117-yard performance against the Texans before the Bills paid a bit more attention to him in coverage.
While Kelce was a main target throughout the regular season, he’s been more involved as the primary target in the postseason. According to FTN, 83.3 percent of Kelce’s targets in the postseason have been as the first read; that was 57.4 percent in the regular season. In the playoffs, Kelce has accounted for 15.4 percent of Kansas City’s first-read targets as opposed to an 11.3 percent regular season rate.
The Eagles were third in DVOA against tight ends during the regular season, but that was with a full healthy linebacker duo that included Nakobe Dean. Dean tore his patellar tendon against the Packers and was replaced by Oren Burks.
Burks was the injury replacement for the 49ers in last season’s Super Bowl after Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles. The Chiefs went after Burks when they could, and Kelce had seven catches for 85 yards in the second half of that game.
Since taking over the starting role, Burks has not been a liability in coverage, but the Commanders did focus on targeting the middle of the field in the NFC Championship Game. Former Eagle Zach Ertz had 11 catches for 104 yards against Philadelphia.
Given how the Eagles play defense, with their defensive backs playing deep, there will be space for Kelce to work in the middle of the field. Like with Worthy, the Chiefs have also tried a few things to isolate Kelce against overmatched defensive backs.
Against the Texans, they lined Kelce up in the backfield and had him run a deep corner route behind the secondary.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
Against the Bills, Kelce motioned late to the outside and was matched up against safety Damar Hamlin.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
And while there is more focus on getting Kelce involved as the main read, there might not be anything more dangerous than when Mahomes and Kelce connect on extended plays.
Will The Kansas City Offensive Line Hold Up?
Kansas City’s offensive line has been an issue all season. The tackle play was rough throughout the year, and Mahomes was hit a career-high 108 times. As the offensive line shuffled around, the Chiefs moved left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle. That helped a bit on the outside but takes away one of the league’s best guards from the interior of the offense line.
That will matter against an Eagles defense that runs deep at defensive tackle. Jalen Carter has mostly lined up against the right guard this season, and that will likely continue against Kansas City. Instead of matching Carter up against Mike Caliendo, who is filling in for Thuney, the Eagles could believe Carter will win on his own, even against Trey Smith, which could leave Milton Williams with 1-on-1 situations against Caliendo.
There’s every reason to believe Carter can win on his own. He leads the playoffs with 20 pressures — five more than teammate Nolan Smith — and he has completely taken over games during this run, including the final two plays against the Rams in the wild-card round. Carter has such an explosive first step off the line that he can be in the backfield in an instant.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 27, 2025
Facing that type of player in the middle puts a lot of stress on the offensive line. Do the Chiefs try to double Carter as much as possible? If so, Williams is more than capable of winning a 1-on-1 matchup against Caliendo. Williams has 10 pressures during the playoffs.
If Carter is getting doubled from the center, then that also leaves 1-on-1 blocks on the outside. As mentioned above, Smith has 15 pressures in the playoffs, and the Eagles have a rotating cast of pass rushers who can get to the quarterback. However, the Chiefs have lowered their rate of getting five men out in a route, keeping an extra blocker in about 22 percent of the time.
Mahomes has gotten around pressure by getting the ball out quickly. His best games this season have coincided with his lowest average time to throw.
On throws under 2.5 seconds, Mahomes has averaged 0.27 EPA per play while being pressured just 8.7 percent of the time. Those throws, though, have only traveled 2.8 air yards on average. On dropbacks of 2.5 seconds or more, Mahomes has been pressured 54.3 percent of the time and has averaged 0.03 EPA per play.
The Eagles are fourth in EPA per play on defense against throws under 2.5 seconds and seventh against plays of 2.5 seconds or more.
Another consequence of the changes in the middle of the offensive line has been the effectiveness of the running game. Since Week 15 and excluding Week 18, the Chiefs have a 34.3 percent rushing success rate on running back carries with a 9.1 percent explosive rush rate while 21.2 percent of runs have been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Run Game
One way to get around the pressure and failure to get anything going on the ground is to have Mahomes run.
Mahomes had the lowest scramble rate of his career during the regular season at just 5.7 percent, but he was effective when he took off. He averaged 0.94 EPA per play with a 75.7 percent success rate on regular season scrambles. Both of those figures led all quarterbacks.
Through two playoff games, Mahomes has been more willing to run. He has 10 scrambles in the playoffs for a 15.7 percent rate. His efficiency has not slowed down with more attempts, and he’s still one of the smarter scramblers at picking his spots. In the playoffs, he’s averaged 0.92 EPA per scramble with an 80 percent success rate.
Man coverage is typically the killer for defenses against a quarterback who is willing to take off and run because the defenders have their back turned to the line of scrimmage, but the Eagles play their zone coverages so deep that there is empty space for passers to run. As a result, the Eagles are 23rd in EPA per play against scrambles.
With the aggressive defensive front, if the pass rush gets behind the quarterback, there can be a ton of space to run, as was the case during the regular season here against… checks notes… Matthew Stafford?
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
It’s possible the Eagles use a spy on Mahomes, and that would take a player out of coverage or the pass rush, which might be more necessary in beating this offense.
Having a linebacker spy Mahomes would almost assure single converge in space against Kelce, and dropping an edge rusher would waste a player who could impact the play against a relatively weak offensive line.
Heavy Personnel vs Nickel
Like the Eagles, the Chiefs like to use multiple tight ends. This was more common during the regular season when Kansas City was down multiple wide receivers and barely had the personnel available to have three wide receivers on the field. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs have used 12 personnel on 33.5 percent of snaps and 13 personnel on 5.6 percent.
Because it’s the Chiefs, defenses have not reacted to Kansas City’s heavier personnel in the same way they would to other teams. League-wide, defenses have matched 12 personnel with base defense 50.2 percent of the time. Against the Chiefs, that rate is 10.2 percent. Kansas City faces five defensive backs with two tight ends on the field 82 percent of the time.
The Chiefs have still taken advantage of that matchup. Against nickel in 12 personnel, Kansas City has averaged 0.10 EPA per play, as opposed to 0.03 against base.
This has been one of the places Kelce has been at his best, even during the regular season. When matched up against slot corners or safeties, Kelce can still use his size to get open. But more often, the alignments create space in the middle of the field.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
Kansas City doesn’t go empty often, just 11.3 percent of plays combined between the playoffs and regular season, but going empty for 12 personnel has been one of their biggest advantages. They average 0.26 EPA per play with a 63 percent success rate, again opening a void in the middle of the defense.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 6, 2025
The Eagles were seventh in EPA per play against 12 personnel but 13th in EPA per dropback. They played base on 42.5 percent of those plays and nickel 55.9 percent of the time. Philadelphia has only faced 21 snaps of 12 personnel in the playoffs but has matched it with five defensive backs 77 percent of the time.
When playing nickel in the playoffs against those two tight end sets, the Eagles have allowed 3.4 yards per play with a 71 percent success rate against the pass.
