NFL Analysis
11/12/24
8 min read
Shane Waldron Out as Bears OC: What Went Wrong, What's Next?
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus told reporters on Monday that changes were going to be made to the team's offense, and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is officially the first domino to fall.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported on Tuesday that the Bears fired Waldron ahead of their Week 11 rivalry game against the Green Bay Packers. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown will take over play-calling duties for Chicago's offense going forward.
Waldron was the ninth offensive coordinator the Bears have had since 2010. The constant revolving door at the position has hindered the development of multiple young quarterbacks in Chicago, including Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields.
The Bears will start looking ahead to this offseason to find their 10th offensive coordinator in 15 years. But before they do that, it's important for the Bears to evaluate what went wrong and what the team needs to do to set Caleb Williams and the offense up for success going forward.
Where Waldron Went Wrong
The vibes for Waldron were bad as soon as he arrived in Chicago. An interview with one of his former players in Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, went viral shortly after the move was announced.
Throwback to when JSN was asked about his experience with new Bears offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron.
— President of the LaPorta Supportas (@bradholmes4prez) August 7, 2024
😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/Pw4fwXqcdl
Comments from former players aside, Waldron's situation didn't get any better in his 10 weeks running Chicago's offense. Key players, including Williams, met with Waldron just a few weeks into the season to push him to be a more aggressive play-caller going forward.
Despite some short-term success after that meeting, the Bears offense went back to struggling during the last two games with 12 combined points and zero touchdowns.
As a whole, the Bears have had one of the worst offenses in the league this season. They rank 30th in offensive DVOA and are 30th with 277.7 total yards of offense per game.
Despite having a phenomenally talented rookie quarterback in Williams, Waldron struggled to find an effective game plan to help his quarterback and the passing game as a whole.
Although it's difficult to quantify, it seemed as if Waldron's instincts were to go conservative in the passing game when the pressure was on the offense to perform. Here's what Williams' passing chart looked like against the New England Patriots, with just one pass attempt going further than 15 yards downfield.
It's not like Williams has been tasked with dinking and dunking all season. In fact, he has an above-average aDOT (average depth of target) on the year at 8.05 yards.
However, Waldron has struggled to generate open looks for his quarterback on intermediate and deep throws. It's resulted in little success when going deep, with Williams posting a 35.5 passer rating with two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 21.1 completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield.
Pass protection has likely played a big part in those offensive struggles as well. Williams has been sacked 38 times this season, four more times than any other quarterback in the NFL. The No. 1 overall pick was used to using his mobility and pocket awareness to escape pressure at the college level, but the Bears offense hasn't given him the outlets to check down instead of trying to do everything himself when running around.
That instinct to go off-script has hurt Williams in the current structure of the offense. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams has a pressure-to-sack ratio of 28.7 percent, which is the highest of any quarterback with at least 200 dropbacks this season.
Even in situations where Waldron tried to find ways to get Williams outside of the pocket to avoid pressure, it still resulted in sacks. The play below on first down against the Patriots is an example of poor playcalling and execution resulting in a sack.
1st and 10
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) November 12, 2024
Empty set. 3x2 look.
Waldron calls a sprintout to the boundary with a 2-man route concept against press coverage.
Neither gets open. OL can't hinge block. Sack. pic.twitter.com/TZHR9cnJjZ
Waldron decided to go empty on this first down, giving the Bears a 3x2 formation with plenty of options to get open. Instead of using the whole field, Waldron called a sprintout to the short side of the field, with a two-man "Smash" concept (hitch/corner) against press coverage.
The result is neither receiver getting open against man coverage, the offensive line struggling to reach their landmarks on hinge blocks, and Williams has no time to get the ball out, resulting in a costly sack.
Although the Bears lack talent on the offensive line and injuries have plagued them, it's not like the group has been immediately allowing pressure. In fact, the unit has steadily improved during the season despite the injuries. According to NFL Pro, the Bears actually have the seventh-best Time-To-Pressure (TTP) rate in the NFL at 2.79 seconds.
Despite having one of the most talented receiver groups in the league, the Bears have struggled to scheme ways to get their top weapons open to generate yards after the catch. Per NFL Pro, the Bears rank 22nd in YAC Over Expected on the year.
All of these issues have resulted in Williams being one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league, behind only Deshaun Watson in two major categories: EPA per dropback and adjusted net yards per attempt.
Things have looked incredibly bleak for the Bears offense, and third downs have been a nightmare for this team. They are nearly tied with Cleveland for the lowest third-down conversion rate in the NFL at just 28.69 percent.
Chicago's inability to sustain drives on third down has crushed its ability to get into the red zone. With 21 trips inside the 20-yard line, the Bears have the second-fewest red zone opportunities. What's even more frustrating is that they convert at one of the best rates in the league once in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on 61.9 percent of those trips, the eighth-best rate.
Despite the red zone efficiency, Waldron has been hammered for some baffling decision-making near the goal line that has resulted in drives with zero points. A fourth down speed option attempt at the goal line resulted in a turnover on downs earlier in the year against the Indianapolis Colts.
NFL Speed option = always a dumb play.
— Stampede Blue (@StampedeBlue) September 22, 2024
Colts ball.#Colts#ForTheShoe#Bears#DaBears#CHIvsIND pic.twitter.com/vuAdpKOEKP
There was also the third-and-goal fumble on a handoff attempt to backup offensive lineman Doug Kramer Jr., which resulted in a fumble prior to the team's Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders.
Goal line? Give it to the backup OL for a fumble! pic.twitter.com/nKQ3gTMWsd
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) November 12, 2024
Waldron actually defended that baffling play call after the team's loss, telling reporters: “I felt confident in the moment in that call, and it didn’t work out. When calls don’t work out, there’s gonna be criticism.”
The main focus of Waldron's first year in Chicago was to set up the No. 1 pick for success. Instead, poor playcalling and inability to design opportunities for his top playmakers has led to Waldron's firing halfway through his first year in Chicago.
Where Can The Bears Go From Here?
Thomas Brown will be under a lot of pressure for the rest of the 2024 season. The good news is that there are a few simple things that he can do to help the offense regain some of its footing.
One of the biggest areas where Brown could help Williams get more comfortable as a passer is establishing the play-action pass. According to PFF, Williams ran a play-action fake on only 18.3 percent of his dropbacks, which is one of the lowest rates in the NFL.
On play-action passes, compared to regular dropbacks, Williams has seen an increase of 2.1 yards per pass attempt, a 3.5 percent increase in big-time throw rate, and a 10.6 percent increase in first down rate.
Another way to get Williams more comfortable, especially with the amount of pressure he's facing on his dropbacks, is to utilize checkdowns to running backs and tight ends.
Cole Kmet, in particular, could get a larger workload in the passing game. He's only been targeted more than five times in one game, where he caught 10 of 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. He also had a perfect 5-for-5 game on targets against the Jaguars in London, going for 70 yards and two touchdowns.
According to Next Gen Stats, Kmet is sixth in the NFL among all pass catchers, with an average of 4.3 yards of separation per target. Even when he can create separation, Kmet is thriving in contested-catch situations, hauling in 5-of-6 targets when blanketed, according to PFF.
Despite his efficiency, Kmet hasn't been utilized as much lately. He's been targeted just five times combined in the last three games, including a zero-target game against the Arizona Cardinals.
These are two fairly simple solutions, but an increased play-action rate and more Kmet usage should help Williams feel less pressure on every dropback while allowing the Bears to improve their third-down efficiency and score more points.
