NFL Analysis
11/7/24
6 min read
Predicting Every 2024 NFL Division Winner Through 9 Weeks
As the second half of the 2024 season kicks off, future division winners are starting to establish themselves, even in some of the league's more competitive divisions.
While the regular season has featured some expected juggernauts like the Kansas City Chiefs, teams like the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders have surprised fans as legitimate contenders in their respective divisions.
A division title guarantees at least one home playoff game and a first-round bye for the best division winner from each conference. Here's who we predict will win each division based on their level of play halfway through the year, along with other circumstances that could set them up for success or failure.
Predicting NFL Division Winners
NFC North: Detroit Lions (7-1) 
Dan Campbell is generating significant Coach of the Year buzz, and for good reason.
The Detroit Lions hold a strong lead in the NFC North despite it being a competitive division halfway through the year. Even with a pair of fellow playoff contenders in the Vikings and Packers, the Lions have established themselves against both teams to go 2-0 in the division.
Jared Goff is putting on an MVP-caliber display with a strong backfield behind him in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Defensively, they've managed to weather the storm without star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, and now reinforcements are coming in the form of a Za'Darius Smith trade.
The Lions are the No. 1 team in total DVOA for a reason, and they've looked unstoppable at times against some solid opponents. There's nothing to indicate that dominance is going to go away any time soon.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
The Washington Commanders hold the lead in the NFC East, but the Philadelphia Eagles are quietly clicking at the right time.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, returning to the field, have unlocked the passing game, but it's been the arrival of Saquon Barkley, who has the offense rolling. Along with an impressive 3.40 yards after contact per attempt. Barkley is second in the NFL behind Derrick Henry with 925 yards, including 403 breakaway yards (h/t PFF).
Saquon Barkely is different pic.twitter.com/MVoUX26Y3z
— Joel Moran (@joelvmoran) November 3, 2024
Defensively, Zack Baun is having a breakout year at linebacker, while a pair of rookie defensive backs, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, have revitalized the secondary.
After a shaky start to the year, Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are answering a lot of questions. They still have two games to play against the Commanders to jump them in the division standings and win the NFC East by the end of the season.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Although they've only played nine games, the Atlanta Falcons are in great shape to win the division.
The only other competition in the NFC South is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Falcons have already swept Baker Mayfield and company. The Buccaneers are also in tough shape with a 4-5 record and no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, so things could keep getting worse for them.
For the Falcons, Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson have the offense rolling. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson deserves tons of credit for building the offense around Cousins and his lack of mobility while still generating plenty of explosive plays for playmakers like Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney.
Once the Falcons hit the playoffs, their real question is how well their defense will hold up. It ranks 21st in defensive DVOA despite having a secondary that features A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III, and Justin Simmons.
That's a conversion to revisit after the regular season, but for now, Atlanta should have no problems cruising through the NFC South.
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
A team that's been to the NFC Championship in four of the last five seasons should be playing a lot better than this. However, the San Francisco 49ers are starting to turn things around in time to take control of a wide-open NFC West.
The 49ers have managed to get through the first half of the season without their top offensive weapon, Christian McCaffrey. The superstar running back has missed the first eight games with Achilles tendinitis but could be nearing a return after practicing for the first time in months on Monday.
McCaffrey's presence should completely transform San Francisco's offense. Per PFF, he led the NFL with 1,110 yards after contact last season, racking up 21 total touchdowns on his way to the Offensive Player of the Year award.
Is Christian McCaffrey the greatest fantasy football running back of all time?
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) January 10, 2024
Most PPR fantasy points scored in a single season by a running back…
1. LaDainian Tomlinson: 481.1 (2006)
2. Christian McCaffrey: 471.2 (2019)
3. Marshall Faulk: 459.9 (2000)
4. Priest Holmes: 445.0… pic.twitter.com/mdQ65Xju9I
Defensively, the 49ers still have two of the most disruptive players in the NFL, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. A pair of young safeties, Ji'Ayir Brown and Malik Mustapha, have started to find their footing, cleaning things up in the defensive backfield.
It's a tight race in the NFC West right now, but a healthy McCaffrey should help the 49ers go back to being one of the best teams in the conference.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
The Pittsburgh Steelers will eventually have to give up the top spot in the AFC North.
The Baltimore Ravens are the second-best team in the NFL by total DVOA, eight spots ahead of the Steelers, who made a midseason switch at quarterback to Russell Wilson.
Baltimore boasts the best two-headed monster in the league with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Per NFELO, Jackson leads the NFL in success rate and total EPA generated among quarterbacks, while Henry leads the league in rushing as well as yards after contact, breakaway yards, and runs of 15-plus yards.
It's the defense where the Ravens aren't the same. Losing former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald hurt, but the real issue has been a struggling secondary that hasn't stayed healthy.
If the Ravens can figure themselves out defensively, this roster is more than talented enough to make a Super Bowl run.
AFC East: Buffalo Bills (7-2)
There isn't another team in the NFL that has a wider gap between them and the second-place team in their division.
The Buffalo Bills haven't seemed to miss Stefon Diggs as much as expected, thanks to Josh Allen's career year. He has just two interceptions through nine games, and his 20 total touchdowns have him in the running for his first career MVP award.
Rookie WR Keon Coleman is still getting adjusted to the NFL, but his flashes have him looking like a future star at the position. He's averaging a strong 1.89 yards per route run while hauling in five contested catches, including this touchdown.
Keon Coleman is too funny. Catches the fade and then says "good rep" to Riq Woolen. pic.twitter.com/Auh3keaO9q
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 28, 2024
The Bills defense isn't playing outstanding football, but it's holding its own and will be given a big boost whenever LB Matt Milano is activated off injured reserve.
Even without Milano, this has looked like a team that can compete with anyone.
AFC South: Houston Texans (6-3)
There isn't another team in the AFC South with the firepower to compete with the Houston Texans right now.
C.J. Stroud isn't having the second-year jump that fans hoped for, but the absence of Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins has played a factor in his struggles. Fortunately, Collins should return in the near future after having a tremendous start to the season, where he was averaging a league-leading 3.50 yards per route run.
Despite the struggles from the second-year quarterback, the Texans are thriving thanks to their exciting defense. DeMeco Ryans has the unit operating at a high level, ranking No. 2 in defensive DVOA.
Players like Azeez Al-Shaair, Danielle Hunter, and Will Anderson Jr. have teams struggling to find any kind of success between the tackles, while the secondary features exciting young players like Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr.
There's so much talent on that defense that teams struggle to move the ball on Houston. The Texans should have no problem running away with this division, especially with the second-place Indianapolis Colts facing a week-by-week quarterback dilemma.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
The back-to-back Super Bowl champions are a couple of wins away from starting the discussion about an undefeated season.
Despite injuries to Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco, the Kansas City Chiefs keep finding ways to keep it moving with Patrick Mahomes under center. He hasn't had an exciting season statistically, but Mahomes continues to keep the offense rolling.
DeAndre Hopkins' arrival could be what unlocks Kansas City's passing game. He had his first breakout game for the Chiefs last week on Monday Night Football, catching eight passes for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns, averaging 2.46 yards per route run.
This pass from Patrick Mahomes to DeAndre Hopkins is high on the list of "WTF" plays I've seen him make.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 5, 2024
Straight from the Favre "no, no, no...yes!" lexicon.
Hopkins can still be a get-out-of-jail-free card at WR.
Fun.#ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/IhJRFtHltH
Steve Spagnuolo continues to lead a defense that can shut down even the most explosive offenses in the league. Chris Jones is still one of the NFL's most dominant defensive tackles, leading the Chiefs with 37 pressures.
No one has been able to beat the Chiefs yet, and if they can go 10-0 with wins against the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills the next two weeks, they'll have a legit path to a perfect season ahead of the playoffs.
