NFL Analysis
9/5/24
6 min read
Patrick Surtain Reset NFL's CB Market, But Why Is It So Far Behind WRs?
Editor's Note: After publish, the Miami Dolphins and All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey agreed on a 3-year, $72.3M extension, making Ramsey the NFL's highest paid corner.
The final hours before the start of the NFL regular season are typically a busy time to get deals done. In the last breath of fresh air before the season, teams and players take the time to get ahead of contract extensions or try to resolve lingering contract disputes.
One of the most recent deals finally moved the market at a stagnant position. The Denver Broncos signed cornerback Patrick Surtain to a four-year/$96 million contract extension that includes $77.5 million guaranteed.
As the cap has risen during the past few seasons, positional markets have been constantly reset. Yet, that hasn’t been true for cornerbacks. Surtain’s $24 million per year average tops the $21 million AAV for Jaire Alexander given during the 2022 season. Since Alexander’s extension, there have been multiple big multi-year deals that did not reset the market.
Just this offseason, deals were given out to Jaylon Johnson, L’Jarius Sneed, A.J. Terrell, and Tyson Campbell. All fell below the bar set by Alexander. It’s rare for a position to have the same top deal for a two-year period. Even now with Surtain surpassing the AAV, it’s not as big of a leap as one might expect.
The $24 million AAV for Surtain is just 9.4 percent of the cap when signed. That’s still below the 10.1 percent of Alexander’s deal when signed in 2022. It’s also below other top cornerback deals such as Jalen Ramsey’s 10.1 percent in 2020, Marlon Humphrey’s 9.8 percent in 2022, and Denzel Ward’s 9.7 percent in 2022. Marshon Lattimore’s 10.6 percent also fits here, but that came in 2021 when the cap dropped after the COVID season.
As the passing boom has come to the NFL with more wide receivers on the field, that position has gotten more resources committed to it. Receivers are getting drafted earlier and those looking for second and third contracts are getting paid. There are currently six wide receivers making at least $30 million per year. The added monetary value for the passing game has not transferred to those responsible for defending the receivers.
Looking at Surtain’s deal is even less impressive when compared to some of the wide receiver contracts given out this offseason. Surtain set the top of the cornerback market with a total contract of four years and $96 million. Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley was given a four-year/$92 million deal from the Tennessee Titans in free agency.
Ridley’s deal is roughly WR17 by AAV while Surtain’s $24 million average matches DK Metcalf’s 2022 extension as the WR13. Even by three-year cash, Surtain’s $72 million matches Metcalf as WR12.
So why is this the case? Part of it is because coverage is difficult to sustain at a high level from year to year, even for the league’s best corners. We can take a look at Surtain himself:
So many things also have to break right for corners to make that type of quantifiable impact. Let’s keep focusing on Surtain’s 2023 season. He forced a tight window throw on 33.3 percent of his targets per Next Gen Stats. That was one of the highest rates for cornerbacks last season, but he still allowed an 8.5 percent catch rate over expectation. In 2022, Surtain forced a tight window on 27.5 percent of targets but had a -1.0 percent CROE.
While Surtain was closer in coverage on those targets in 2023, a higher-than-expected rate was completed. It’s also about how often Surtain was targeted. In 2022, he was targeted on just 12.5 percent of his coverage snaps. Last season, that rate was 16.9 percent.
Surtain is objectively one of the best cornerbacks in the league, but his actual production can not be relied upon as easily as that of a top wide receiver.
Pass coverage is also a weak-link proposition. A defense could have the league’s best cornerback on the roster but if the second cornerback spot does not also feature a quality player, that star corner can just be avoided.
Now, there’s definitely an advantage to eliminating one part of the field if a top corner is not thrown at but it puts more pressure on the other defenders in coverage and receivers could be moved away from that player.
This is the opposite of how offenses use top pass catchers. If a team has one great wide receiver, it can find multiple ways to get that receiver involved and heavily target him. The entire offense can go around that one player.
Offenses can be built around one expensive player, while defenses are more likely to need to spread the investment over multiple spots.
Now, that’s the case for the top players at each position. It’s reasonable to believe the Justin Jeffersons of the world should be paid more than the Surtains. But should the Calvin Ridleys of the world be getting nearly the same contract as the league’s best corners? That’s where the disconnect still exists.
Even if the cornerback market jumps with the next deals to Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley, it’s hard to see a significant leap over the deal Surtain just received. That’s going to leave a bargain for teams that can acquire and lock up top cornerbacks. The Bears already have to be thrilled with having Jaylon Johnson under contract for $19 million per year and $60 million in cash over the first three years of the deal.
With rookie corners being more successful since that Gardner/Stingley class — all the things said about wide receivers developing earlier are true for the players guarding them from seven-on-seven to more passing in college — it might take a few more classes of plus cornerbacks to get a wide-ranging market shift for these second deals.
How Gardner’s next contract comes out will be the biggest test for where the cornerback market will go. Entering Year 3, Gardner is already a two-time first-team All-Pro selection. If there’s a player who deserves to make an outlier jump in value, it will be him.
Surtain got the ball rolling by finally exceeding Alexander’s figures. Next offseason’s Gardner deal might determine if a top corner still remains a discount even at the top of the market.
