Fantasy & Betting

10/2/24

6 min read

NFL Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings: Predictions For Every Position

By C.H. Herrmann

Fantasy Writer

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Welcome to October, when bye weeks begin and the difficulty of fielding a decent lineup skyrockets exponentially. 

This part of the fantasy calendar is not kind to managers looking to dig out of an early season hole, though climbing out is not impossible. Here’s to hoping that your squad can overcome the absence(s) of the various players from these four teams, all of whom will be off this weekend:

• Los Angeles Chargers
• Detroit Lions
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Tennessee Titans

Despite the added challenge, our one gift is an entire month’s worth of sample sizes to parse through. Indeed, not all data is extraordinarily reliable or predictive, but making forecasts is considerably easier once enough information has been gathered.

Together, let’s tackle putting together Week 5 lineups and discuss rankings for each position:

Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 5 Quarterback Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• On Monday, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network shared that Anthony Richardson is considered “day to day” with oblique and abdominal strains. Considering how banged up he looked leaving Week 4 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is incredibly encouraging news. Richardson appears in these rankings on the assumption that he will play on Sunday vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. If he can't, backup Joe Flacco would immediately become a top-20 option. 
• If the results of Monday night’s game against the Tennessee Titans are any indication of what can be expected from this Tua Tagovailoa-less Miami Dolphins offense, neither Tyler Huntley nor a potential return of Skylar Thompson will mean anything for fantasy purposes. Unfortunately, this also means the key skill position weapons in Miami will also suffer, hence why you’ll see names like WR Tyreek Hill or RB De’Von Achane lower than their name value suggests.

Trending Up

• Well documented in this week’s waiver article is the ascent of Justin Fields. I won’t take too much time to expand upon those thoughts, but now is the time to buy in on the guy with 145 rushing yards (fifth among quarterbacks, per FantasyData) and the mounting passing totals he’s adding. This week, he’ll face a Dallas Cowboys unit that ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA, according to FTN.
• Credit where it’s due; Deshaun Watson hasn’t been terrible for fantasy purposes. A combination of small rushing contributions and him finding the end zone at least once in three of four games puts Watson within the top 20 quarterbacks each week, averaging 13.2 points per game. He’s just good enough to be a reliable superflex option, and this week, he’ll take on the league’s worst defense, the Washington Commanders, on the road. Watson is perhaps worthy of being in 1-QB lineups in a schedule period without Jalen Hurts or Jared Goff suiting up due to bye weeks.
• It’s only a matter of time until we see a significant breakout from Geno Smith. Through four weeks, the veteran is tremendously efficient moving the ball downfield, ranking ninth in first downs per pass attempt (35.8 percent) per TruMedia. Despite being logjammed in the TD:INT ratio department with four apiece, Smith still stands as the QB9 in fantasy points per game (17.2) in the common four-point per passing touchdown scoring format, according to FantasyData. The typical counting stats are there for him, too; we're simply waiting on touchdowns.

Trending Down

• While Patrick Mahomes justifiably holds the title of being the best in the league from a real-life football perspective, the 2024 season hasn’t been kind to him from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP is averaging 14.4 points and a meager 226 passing yards per game. Now that the team has presumably lost WR Rashee Rice for an extended time due to the nasty knee injury, it’s probably a good time to pump the breaks on expectations for this offense as a whole. This isn’t a call for dropping Mahomes, but you might want to entertain the idea of rostering a second quarterback and basing your starting decision on matchups from this point on.

Week 5 Running Back Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• Multiple reports have confirmed that Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 4’s victory against the Steelers. If he cannot go this weekend, backup Trey Sermon (currently RB44) could be considered a low-end RB2 option for managers in need of a replacement. Sermon is worth stashing on your bench early through the week, just in case.
• Unfortunately, many fantasy managers who’ve stashed away rookie RB Jonathon Brooks on injured reserve will have to keep waiting. On Monday, Panthers beat reporter Sheena Quick shared that the team doesn’t plan to open the window for the second-round pick to return from IR this week. 

Trending Up

• After a sluggish start to the year leading to me saying fantasy managers could drop him at the end of last week, Chase Brown ended this past Sunday’s contest vs. the Panthers with a season-high 16 touches, 92 scrimmage yards, and a pair of rushing scores. While the second-year speedster has still only appeared on 33.6 percent of the team’s offense snaps in the past two weeks, he’s catching up to teammate Zack Moss in the carries department. In that same aforementioned stretch, Brown is responsible for 43.1 percent of the Bengals’ backfield carries, saving himself from a descent into irrelevance. I’ll buy in on Brown for now at a flex level (RB28), but the proverbial leash is short. 
• In the past two weeks, the Panthers running game is really turning things around. While mentioning Chuba Hubbard’s success isn’t something I’ve shied away from in past articles, it’s worth reiterating. Since Week 3, the former Oklahoma State runner ranks third in rushing yards per game (109.0) and fourth in fantasy points per game (25) in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, all while maintaining a workload of 24 touches per game, according to FantasyData.

Trending Down

• The Steelers have a massive offensive line problem now. Starting guard James Daniels suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Week 4’s loss vs. the Colts, making him the third starter to succumb to injury in 2024. He joined teammates Issac Seumalo (torn pectoral muscle) and rookie Troy Fautanu (dislocated kneecap). Though Seumalo is expected to return at some point this season, both Daniels and Fautanu will be out for the remainder of the regular season. 
• This all spells nothing but terrible news for the already inefficient Najee Harris, who is averaging a putrid 57 rushing yards per game despite receiving 17 carries per game. The frustrating part of this situation is that the volume is abundant, but the 10.3 PPR points per game results render Harris an untrustworthy RB2. Sure, I still have him ranked relatively high among his positional counterparts, but that’s only because the Dallas Cowboys defense ranks dead last in run defense DVOA in 2024. If Harris can’t get it done in Week 5, then here’s to hoping Jaylen Warren can recover from his knee injury soon.

Week 5 Wide Receiver Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• Fortunately, early-season results haven’t caused the top of the wide receiver food chain to change much. It’ll be a massive bummer not to have guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown or A.J. Brown available in Week 5, but there are ways to overcome those obstacles. This next section will highlight some under-the-radar names managers can count on for that bye week boost.

Trending UP

• I am on a fierce mission to make sure everyone in the fantasy sphere puts respect on the name of New York Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson. To date, the slot specialist ranks tied for fourth in targets (38), fourth in catches (26), and fifth among wide receivers in targets per route run (0.36), according to Fantasy Points Data. The fantasy results have only yielded 13.2 PPR points per game (WR29) to date. However, the underlying information highlights a player who’s heavily involved in his offense that’s still criminally underrostered across major platforms. Just pick up Robinson, dangit.
• The vast majority of Josh Downs’ production this past Sunday (eight catches, 82 receiving yards, one touchdown) came when backup Joe Flacco was under center. For those who may have forgotten about Downs, the second-year wideout established a robust 17.1 percent target share and an average of 5.8 targets per game as a rookie in 2023, with at least seven contests with nine PPR points or more. The only reason he didn’t make this week’s waiver article is that his, or really any other Colts pass-catchers’, success is heavily predicated on whether Flacco gets the nod in Week 5 vs. the Jaguars.
• Across a small sample size, second-year WR Dontayvion Wicks has demonstrated he can step up and be impactful. With the prospect of Christian Watson missing time due to an ankle injury suffered on Sunday, wise managers should be flocking to add Wicks into the fold.

Week 5 Tight End Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• Stay the course with your superstars. It’s been multiple weeks now since David Njoku (ankle) and Evan Engram (hamstring) have played, but assuming they return in Week 5, they belong in your lineups.

Trending Up

• Tucker Kraft received plenty of praise in my most recent waiver article, and I hope you managed to pick him up in your league. Per Fantasy Points Data, the second-year pass-catcher ranks third on the team in route participation (64.4 percent) and maintains an impressive 12.3 percent target share. Considering that Jordan Love is back under center, we might have a breakout TE1 on our hands.
• Quietly, Bengals rookie TE Erick All Jr. has caught four passes for at least 22 receiving yards in each of the past four games. Though the presence of veteran Mike Gesicki, who also maintains fantasy value, complicates the path for All Jr.’s playing time, this is a trend worth monitoring. After all, Gesicki is only with Cincinnati on a one-year deal, and All Jr. is perhaps the future answer for QB Joe Burrow and company. 
• Pat Freiermuth continues to be a safety valve for Justin Fields. The former Penn State standout is amid a four-game streak with at least four receptions per and ranks tied for fifth among tight ends with 20 targets in 2024. 

Trending Down

• Yes, it’s been extremely frustrating for managers who roster the likes of Kyle Pitts or the long-time stalwart Mark Andrews. I need not even dig into their numbers here because if you play fantasy, you’re aware of how futile their efforts have been. Best practice dictates you should hold onto these guys given their talent profiles and, in Andrews’ case, a strong track record. Still, if you need supplementary help at the position, go for it — I’m just not ready to tell people to drop Andrews yet. 

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C.H. Herrmann

Fantasy Writer

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C.H. 'Herms' Herrmann is a fantasy writer for The 33rd Team, leveraging his extensive experience from previous roles as a fantasy analyst and NFL writer at Draft Sharks, FantasyPros, ClutchPoints, and SB Nation. A respected voice in the fantasy football community, Herms' insights and accuracy have earned them the distinction of being the No. 1 most accurate DST ranker in FantasyPros’ ECR Draft Rankings in the 2023 season. Herms has worked in media since 2020.