Expert Analysis
10/11/24
6 min read
NFL Defenses Are Bringing Blitzing Back
Brian Flores is a madman. When the Vikings blitz, currently at the second-highest rate in the league, opposing offenses are averaging 4.5 yards per play. Minnesota’s defense has made quarterbacks like Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, and Aaron Rodgers look lost at times.
Flores and the Vikings have gotten most of the attention for effective blitzing, but they’re not alone. Blitzing is back.
During the Fangio Revolution in 2021 and 2022, when defenses were shifting to two-high shells and light boxes, blitz rates dropped around the league. As defenses worried about stopping deep passes and explosive plays, more bodies were kept in coverage.
Some of the league’s best quarterbacks were also tearing up the blitz so an unofficial Do Not Blitz list went around the league, including Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Josh Allen. Those quarterbacks were so good at knowing where to throw against the blitz that it was barely worth trying against them.
Most defenses are still cautious around passers such as Mahomes, Allen, and Joe Burrow but the overall aggressiveness has returned. The league isn’t exactly back to blitzing at rates we saw earlier in the decade but it’s coming back up. The biggest shift is the effectiveness of these blitzes. For the first time in the past decade, offenses are averaging negative EPA per dropback on blitzes, according to TruMedia. The sack rate has also jumped to the highest rate we’ve seen in the past 10 years.
A lot of that has come down to how defenses are blitzing this season. Defenses are both disguising what the play looks like presnap while being more dynamic in coverage after the snap.
The Vikings can show a crowded line of scrimmage before the snap like this…
…and then drop out to a two-deep coverage that still brings five pass rushers.
No defense has played Quarters behind blitzes more than the Vikings at 41 percent. Playing Quarters behind the blitz allows for more flexibility behind the pass rush. The Vikings can crowd the line of scrimmage and have their safeties back all the way out into the deep part of the field or, on occasion, the corners can be the middle-of-the-field defenders while the safeties drop back to the sidelines.
Most importantly, having the four deep defenders and an even spread limits how much of an impact motion can have against the coverage. The coverage responsibilities stay sound and the defenders don’t have to overreact to the changing picture from the offense.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) October 11, 2024
Minnesota can also change up these looks because they often play dime defense with three safeties on the field. Josh Metellus, Harrison Smith, and Cam Bynum can line up anywhere on the field and take any role in coverage or in the rush. Here’s where these three lined up pre-snap when Minnesota blitzed so far this season.
What helps make these blitzes more effective is offenses can’t always tell who is coming because anyone can be a threat to come or drop out into coverage on a given play. That makes it nearly impossible for the quarterback and offensive line to set the protection before the snap.
Minnesota has a high rate of rushing six or more defenders but also drops eight defenders into coverage, rushing just three, at one of the highest rates in the league. Making those defensive calls look the same before the snap increases the difficulty of figuring out who might rush and who will drop.
The Vikings aren’t alone in significantly changing the defense after the snap behind the blitz. Defenses are playing more two-high behind blitzes in general, getting the best of both worlds with the aggressive fronts and anti-aggressive coverages. The rate of two-high coverages behind a blitz has gone from 23.1 percent in 2020 to 28.1 percent so far in 2024.
As a result, offensive play against the blitz has mirrored some of the overall offensive trends. Quarterbacks are holding onto the ball longer while throwing the ball shorter, leading to less effective passing and fewer explosive plays when the ball gets out.
Under Steve Spangnuolo, the Chiefs have been masters of creative blitz looks. Kansas City had been in its own league of playing Quarters behind a blitz until the Vikings ran wild with it this year. The Chiefs still do it 30 percent of the time in 2024, and they lead the league in EPA per play when they blitz.
Here’s a second-and-11 against the Chargers. The Chiefs show a five-man front. When the Chargers motioned, safety Justin Reid crept down to the line, and the coverage shell shifted as Reid went over the motioning tight end. But at the snap, Reid blitzed in addition to the five defenders on the line. Linebacker Drue Tranquill snuck past the offensive line and the back went out to block Reid, which left Tranquill as an unblocked defender rushing the quarterback.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) October 11, 2024
The Chiefs also arguably have the most aggressive coverage schemes in general, trusting their corners to lock down opposing receivers in press coverage. According to MatchQuarters and Field Vision data, the Chiefs press two corners on 52 percent of their snaps, which leads the league. No other team does that more than 26 percent of the time.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs are forcing a tight window throw, defined as a yard or fewer of separation at the catch point, on 30.9 percent of pass attempts against the blitz. That can compare to the Vikings at 8.4 percent.
The Denver Broncos have gotten into the blitz game by rushing at a higher rate than anyone else. That’s led to the highest pressure rate in the league. Denver is blitzing at the second-highest rate on early downs, behind the Vikings.
Earlier in the season, the Broncos were all blitz all the time but they ramped down the third down blitzing, just 11th, after the past two weeks. They only blitzed the Raiders on 11.7 percent of third downs in Week 5 because they didn’t really need to do so.
They’re getting the production on early downs, which has allowed them to lay off the gas a bit on third down when needed. The Broncos currently have the highest early-down sack rate in the league, and Denver is doing that by bringing a ton of defenders.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) October 11, 2024
This is another defense that trusts its secondary behind the blitz with Patrick Surtain locking down one side of the field.
So far, we’re seeing more creative blitzing across the league, which is giving quarterbacks pause for how to handle the rush and what is happening in coverage. That delay has been enough to ramp up the sack rate and make converting drives into a new set of downs harder for offenses.
Getting aggressive with the blitz is a pendulum swing back toward the defense being proactive instead of reactive before the snap. So far it’s paid off and it might only get more difficult for quarterbacks as the season goes on.