NFL Analysis

9/27/24

8 min read

Malik Nabers' Start To His Career Is Even Better Than You Think

By Dan Pizzuta

NFL Analyst
Sep 26, 2024; East Rutherford, NJ, US; New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (1) catches a pass in the fourth quarter before being tackled by Dallas Cowboys cornerback Jourdan Lewis (2) at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Julian Guadalupe-NorthJersey.com

Through four weeks, Malike Nabers has 52 targets, 35 receptions, 386 yards, and three touchdowns. We’re now in an age when rookie wide receivers have come in and produced immediately but the Nabers start is something we haven’t seen even with the increased rookie performance.

Sometimes, the plan gets laid out in front of our eyes. At the NFL Combine in February, Nabers was asked about his initial meeting with the Giants and he had to catch himself and backtrack a bit from the enthusiasm he felt for the meeting. “When I met with the Giants, it was a great interview,” Nabers said. “I knew they were looking for a good receiver… well I don’t know really if they are looking for a good receiver.”

Nabers tried to keep from revealing how eager the Giants were about the prospect of taking the LSU receiver with the sixth overall pick, but he clearly felt the connection.

“I know the head coach [Brian Daboll] really likes me a lot,” Nabers continued. “I know they’re still looking for that WR1 especially since Odell [Beckham Jr.] left. If I can come in and be that guy, so be it.”

While there was an attempt to move up for a quarterback shown on Hard Knocks, the Giants were more than happy to select Nabers and build an offense around him as the top receiving target.

Putting Beckham-sized expectations on a rookie could set most up for failure in meeting them, but Nabers has somehow exceeded those through the first four weeks of the season.

Nabers has seen 38.2 percent of the Giants’ targets through four weeks, according to TruMedia. That easily leads the league. As of this writing, Nabers has an extra game over most receivers in the league but after Week 3, Nabers was still atop the leaderboard at 37.8 percent with Rashee Rice second at 33.7 percent.

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (1) runs for yards after a catch during the first half of an NFL football game at Huntington Bank Field, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio.

The role of Nabers keeps growing. After seeing an 18.4 percent target share in Week 1, Nabers saw 66.7 percent of the team targets in Week 2. Then in the past two games, those rates have been 36.4 percent in Week 3 and 39.5 percent in Week 4.

This is even well above where Beckham was during his rookie year as a Giant. Beckham missed the first four games of the 2014 season and wasn’t immediately a high-volume impact player when he got on the field. Through his first three games, Beckham only had 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 106 yards. Though three touchdowns in that span did highlight the star's potential.

In Beckham’s fourth game, he went off for 156 yards and did not finish a game with fewer than 90 receiving yards for the remainder of the season. But it still took a little ramp-up period to get Beckham to that place. 

There has been no hesitation to run the passing offense through Nabers from the jump and maybe that shouldn’t be much of a surprise either. Before the season, The Athletic did a story on Brian Daboll as a play-caller and Saquon Barkley mentioned that Daboll has a section of his playsheet dedicated to getting specific players the ball.

“On his call sheet, on the back side, he has a section with a player’s name and under that certain plays that they’re likely to be targeted on,” Barkley said. “So he knew how to orchestrate that. If a guy is hot, let’s go with him, which was kind of cool to see. I had never seen that on a call sheet.”

The Nabers section of the playsheet has gotten a lot of use so far. No rookie receiver over the past 25 years has been used this often through the first four weeks of the season. Nabers is one of five rookie receivers to have at least a 30 percent target share through four weeks, and he sits atop the list. 

Of the other four receivers, only Anquan Boldin finished the year with a target share of over 30 percent (31.6 percent) so it could be fair to wonder if Nabers can keep this rate up for a full season (we should also note Nabers left the Week 4 game with a concussion). 

It’s not just that Nabers is having a great rookie season or just highly involved in an offense for a rookie — he’s already one of the highest-volume receivers in the league. We already noted Nabers leads the league in target share but even that can undersell how much of the Giants’ passing game runs through Nabers.

To this point in the season, Nabers has been on the field for 94.3 percent of the overall team dropbacks. That’s the 10th-highest rate in the league for a wide receiver. He’s been targeted on 34.7 percent of his routes, second to Cooper Kupp (38.6 percent).

If Nabers is going to be on the field, the ball is going to him, and for good reason. Nabers has already shown his explosive traits have translated to the NFL level. He’s been great against man coverage (3.73 yards per route run) and zone (2.23). The efficiency in yards per route run show he's not just getting peppered with inefficient targets. Among rookie receivers since 2000 with at least 60 routes through the first four weeks of the season, Nabers is eighth in yards per route run.

As the first third down against Dallas highlighted, Nabers might already be a receiver defenses can’t leave on an island against single-high looks.

Through four weeks, Nabers has five plays of 20 or more yards on third down, which leads the league. Just that one came against Dallas so his four plays still led the league after Week 3 with no other player with three and seven with two.

The third downs have been interesting because the Giants have already needed to be creative with ways to get Nabers open since he’s getting attention. That’s led to Wan’Dale Robinson having a 53.7 percent target share on third downs this season, first by a mile over the next receiver at 43.5 percent.

There will be a shift there at some point — the Giants can’t keep throwing to Robinson on over half of their third downs — and when Nabers gets the ball in those situations (29 percent of team targets), there have been those big plays.

Twice against Washington on third-and-long, the Giants sent Nabers in motion against man coverage and then ran him through traffic on a shallow crossing route.

There has been no shortage of creative ways to get Nabers the ball, including releasing him from the backfield against Dallas.

Nabers has also been a mistake-eraser when the ball gets close enough to him. Against the Browns, in Week 3, Nabers stole what would have likely been an underthrown interception in most other circumstances and made it a catch for a 28-yard gain.

Later in that game, he brought in a high throw in the end zone for a touchdown, just a play after another high throw completely missed an open tight end.

According to the receiver tracking metrics from ESPN Analytics, Nabers is already the best receiver at getting open this season, by a fair margin.

source: ESPN Analytics

According to Next Gen Stats, Nabers had 25 targets with at least three yards of separation, most in the league. That makes up 48 percent of his targets.

A ton of the openness overall has come from Nabers’s ability to sell the vertical route and break off of that stem. So far this season, 30 percent of his routes and 32 percent of his targets have come on hitch/comebacks. He’s setting the defender up to run deep and then coming back to the ball.

What’s maybe more incredible about Nabers’s production so far is that there is still so much left on the table. Despite getting open and making defenders scared of the deeper route, Nabers and Daniel Jones have struggled to connect deep consistently, and the quarterback’s arm has been a bit of an issue.

Against Dallas, Nabers had a deep crossing route that could have resulted in a big play, but the ball hung up in the air, bringing the corner and a safety into the play.

There’s so much to like about what Nabers has brought to the Giants — and there could be even more. Daboll and the Giants have given no hesitation in running the offense through the rookie at a rate we have not seen before. That exact rate may be unsustainable, and Nabers being in concussion protocol following the Thursday night game is concerning.

But if Nabers stays on the field, we could be witnessing a special rookie season.

Tags: New York Giants

Dan Pizzuta

NFL Analyst

Dan Pizzuta is an NFL writer who loves to dive deep into the numbers and film. He was previously the lead writer and editor at Sharp Football Analysis and has contributed to multiple Football Outsiders/FTN Almanacs.

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