NFL Analysis
1/30/25
7 min read
How Liam Coen Can Unlock Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' Offense
After a long and winding path, Liam Coen is the new head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
As with all first-time head coaches, it’s impossible to know how Coen will handle the expanded responsibilities of running an entire football team. But since Coen stated he will continue to call plays with the Jaguars, we have a sense of what that offense might look like.
Like many coaching vacancies with a good, young quarterback under contract, one of the highest priorities of this job is getting the most out of Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence has been a polarizing evaluation throughout his NFL career. The skills and talent are clearly there but those haven’t always — or ever — been consistently matched up with an offense that played to his strengths. The closest we’ve come was the second half of the 2022 season, which helped lead the Jaguars to the playoffs. We went in-depth on Lawrence during the offseason, just as he signed his extension with Jacksonville.
Outside of that half-season, both players and scheme have made things more difficult on Lawrence than they should be — in a league that has increasingly found ways to insulate quarterbacks for varying talent levels in offenses that make the job easier.
That weighed on Lawrence in 2024, a season in which the former top-overall pick looked like a player who had regressed in some ways. Lawrence finished the regular season ranked 24th among 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play, according to TruMedia.
With the Buccaneers, Coen built an offense that accentuated Baker Mayfield’s strengths and often kept him from his worst tendencies, such as drifting in the pocket and trying to do too much while escaping or anticipating pressure. Mayfield averaged 0.17 EPA per play, which ranked sixth.
Bringing the Easy Buttons
One of the biggest issues with the Jacksonville offense under Doug Pederson was the small margin for error on passing plays. It often felt like every pass needed to be perfect in order for it to work.
Lawrence has been a quarterback who can make all the throws but even the best quarterbacks in the league aren’t asked to do so at a high volume. The league’s best offenses have easy answers built into the scheme that allow for production while the quarterback doesn’t have to carry the entire weight of the offense on every dropback.
The Jacksonville offense relied on a ton of hitches and go’s, requiring pinpoint accuracy often into tight windows and little chance for yards after the catch. These are static routes.
Lawrence only threw between the numbers on 42.6 percent of his passes, which ranked 25th among quarterbacks, while Mayfield ranked seventh at 48.2 percent. Those throws are more likely to be caught and create spacing for yards after the catch, making it a more valuable area of the field to target. Take a look at the most common areas these two quarterbacks threw the ball in 2024.
On intermediate throws, the Buccaneers were more likely to have something breaking into the middle of the field, while the Jaguars, again, were static. Mayfield had a 7.9 percent interception rate on throws between 11-19 air yards and still averaged more EPA per play (0.33 to 0.19) and success rate (57.9 percent to 46.0 percent) than Lawrence did to throws to that level of the field.
Look at what routes were targeted by each quarterback on those intermediate throws:
Trevor Lawrence vs Baker Mayfield On Intermediate Targets, 2024 (per TruMedia)
Player | EPA/Play | Cross% | Go% | Out% | In% | Post% | Hitch% | Cmbck% |
Trevor Lawrence | 0.19 | 9.5% | 17.5% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 25.4% | 6.3% |
Baker Mayfield | 0.33 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 19.3% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
The Screen Game
Tampa Bay’s screen game was one of the best in the league, and they led all teams in EPA per play on screens (0.33). That’s coaching. The execution and effort of a screen game can tell you how detailed an offense can be.
The screen designs were good, but it’s more so how the Buccaneers attacked the ideas around their screens. Wide receiver screens are one of the least efficient passing plays league-wide.
This season, wide receiver screens averaged -0.01 EPA per play with a success rate of 41.2 percent. Both tight end and running back screens averaged 0.06 EPA per play.
That’s typically about spacing and the ability to get blockers into the open field. Wide receiver screens often ask other wide receivers to be the main blockers while throws to tight ends and running backs are closer to the middle of the field and allow more offensive linemen to get out in front of the play.
Could you guess where the Jagaurs threw most of their screens?
Screen Play Target Rates, 2024 (Per TruMedia)
Player | EPA/Play | Success% | WR% | TE% | RB% |
Trevor Lawrence | 0.10 | 38.5% | 46.2% | 23.1% | 30.7% |
Baker Mayfield | 0.33 | 52.7% | 35.1% | 12.2% | 52.7% |
Timing was also key. The Buccaneers often anticipated the right times to call these plays, with 27 percent of Mayfield’s screens coming against a blitz, compared to just 11.5 percent of Lawrence’s. As a percentage of throws against the blitz, Mayfield was at 12.8 percent screens while Lawrence was at 4.9 percent.
Despite Lawrence taking fewer sacks when pressured against blitzes, Mayfield was more successful against the blitz (0.12 EPA per play to -0.09), thanks in part to the screen the game. Lawrence was 34th of 25 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected against the blitz (-5.9 percent), per Next Gen Stats.
Improved Quick Game Concepts
Lawrence’s best stretch of football — that second half of the season in 2022 — was built around Lawrence getting the ball out quickly. But that quick game efficiency had faded during the past two seasons.
This was an area where pushing the ball down the field helped Lawrence. He had a quick trigger and was able to take advantage of space in that intermediate middle of the field. On quick intermediate throws in 2022, 58.3 percent went between the numbers. As a result, he averaged 0.39 EPA per play on quick intermediate pass attempts.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 30, 2025
Over the past two seasons, that rate has lowered to 22 percent and 21.4 percent, as Lawrence has averaged -0.08 EPA per play to that same level of the field on quick throws in each of the past two seasons.
Coen has shown the ability to open up that space in different ways.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 30, 2025
Getting the most out of personnel
The Buccaneers made some improvements along the offensive line in the offseason and that should be a path the Jaguars try to follow. Tampa Bay added Ben Brederson in free agency (he’ll be a free agent again after a one-year deal) and drafted Graham Barton in the first round to play center.
Tampa Bay was fifth in pass block win rate and sixth in run block block win rate this season while Jacksonville ranked 19th and 25th, respectively. Having a better run scheme and pass protection plan should aid in getting more out of the offensive line.
To go back to the quick game, Mayfield had the lowest pressure rate in the league on plays under 2.5 seconds at 7.8 percent. Lawrence was 21st at 16.1 percent.
Coen’s rushing offense also shifted throughout the season to get Bucky Irving more touches. The Buccaneers had 12 runs of 20 or more yards from running backs, which ranked fourth behind the Ravens, Eagles, and Lions.
Then there is Brian Thomas Jr., who is already a star at wide receiver and could serve time playing both the Chris Godwin and Mike Evans roles in this offense.
Foundational pieces are in place and getting the most out of them will be the top priority for Coen and this offense. Lawrence should be in a spot where the offense is built around him for the first time after the Urban Meyer disaster and running the Doug Pederson offense.
The Jaguars have a history of getting in their own way but at least Coen’s recent offense suggest the willingness to clear the path to avoid those types of obstacles. That already should help this Jacksonville offense reach the potential it has flashed at times under Lawrence.