NFL Analysis
1/2/25
10 min read
Has Sam Darnold Usurped J.J. McCarthy as Vikings' Franchise Quarterback?
When the Minnesota Vikings gave Sam Darnold a one-year $10-million prove-it deal last offseason, most viewed it as a short-term bridge quarterback signing that would facilitate J.J. McCarthy’s transition to the NFL.
Darnold would give the Vikings a year of volatile but mediocre quarterback play and hopefully be rewarded with another mid-level contract the following year while McCarthy developed and prepared to take over the offense in 2025.
Instead, Darnold is in the midst of a breakout season that has given the Vikings an extraordinary return on their investment and a quarterback controversy they weren’t expecting.
To thoroughly evaluate how Minnesota should handle this situation, we need to answer five questions:
- How much would Sam Darnold cost?
- Is Sam Darnold’s performance real and sustainable?
- How much of his success is a result of Minnesota’s offensive infrastructure?
- How much would the results differ with McCarthy at quarterback?
- Is the difference between Darnold and McCarthy worth paying for?
How much would Darnold cost?
Over the Cap projects the quarterback franchise tag at $41 million, and considering Darnold's small sample size of high-quality tape, this is probably Minnesota's most realistic path. But the Vikings may be confident Darnold can sustain his 2024 level of play, so it’s worth exploring what a contract extension would look like.
For better or worse, a quarterback’s value on the open market is almost entirely dependent on their statistics. Darnold has performed like a top 10-12 quarterback in 2024 based on most metrics and would be in line for a market-setting contract if he had multiple years of similar production.
Analyzing the recent history of quarterback signings and extensions, Darnold’s contract situation is unprecedented. The following table contains non-homegrown quarterback contracts from the last 15 years.
Quarterbacks who signed with the team that drafted them (Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, etc.) and certain outliers (Deshaun Watson) are excluded. Since the cap increases every year, “Cap %” is the key column to use when predicting future contracts.
There are several factors that differentiate Darnold from historical precedents. He’s much less proven than players like Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford, and he’s been a bottom-five quarterback statistically in every season prior to 2024. But at 27.5 years old, he would be the third youngest quarterback on this list, and he’ll likely be viewed as having a higher upside than most of them.
The closest comparisons, in my opinion, are Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith. All three were first-round picks that failed, to varying degrees, with the team that drafted them. Darnold will be five years younger than Tannehill was when he signed his extension, but like Tannehill, Darnold is leading a high-powered offense on a successful team with an excellent supporting cast.
Considering these factors, a 4-year deal worth 17 percent of the cap is realistic. Assuming a $275 million salary cap for 2025, this would come out to about $47 million per year. While the small sample size will likely limit his contract value, there’s no reason to believe a quarterback or his agent would be willing to take a team-friendly deal.
Is Darnold’s performance real and sustainable?
It’s dangerous to automatically buy into quarterbacks who put up impressive numbers in perfect situations. Quarterback performance is much deeper than the box score, and raw production is not always indicative of quality of play or future success.
However, what Darnold is doing this year is different from Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Tua Tagovailoa’s highly efficient seasons in similarly pristine offensive infrastructures.
Darnold’s supporting cast is undoubtedly good. Kevin O’Connell has established himself as an elite offensive head coach in terms of play design, player development, and leadership. Darnold's throwing to the best wide receiver in the NFL (Justin Jefferson), an emerging star No. 2 (Jordan Addison), and a top-10 tight end (TJ Hockenson).
His offensive line is capable but not spectacular. Brian O’Neill is a Pro Bowl-caliber right tackle, and Cam Robinson has been a solid replacement for Christian Darrisaw, but the interior is shaky, and Darnold’s pressure rate (37.2%) is around league average.
This isn’t a situation where a game manager is on autopilot, coasting off talented playmakers and schemed-up production. Darnold is carrying plenty of the load and making high-difficulty throws that many starting quarterbacks are incapable of executing consistently.
His role in Minnesota's offense would not be easy to replace, and swapping him with a lesser or inexperienced quarterback is a significant gamble.
DEEP PASSING
Darnold has exceptional arm strength to access every inch of the field and every route and passing concept is available with him under center. His 9.3 average depth of target is the fourth highest in the NFL, but he’s been one of the most accurate and precise deep ball throwers in 2024.
On pass attempts of at least 20 air yards, Darnold’s 51.6 percent completion rate is the best among NFL quarterbacks. He’s proven the ability to outpace deep coverage and convert shot plays at an extremely high clip:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
He has the arm talent and aggressiveness to attack split-safety coverage and has dialed up some remarkable holeshots this year. O’Connell’s offenses always feature the highest rate of deep corner routes in the NFL, and there’s no window too tight for Darnold:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
This desire to challenge every deep-sideline window and test how quickly NFL flat defenders can get depth does result in some dangerous passes. Carrington Valentine punished his aggression in Week 17, and there have been other similar interceptions or turnover-worthy throws:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
Ideally, he can minimize interceptions without sacrificing explosive plays, but for quarterbacks in the Sam Darnold or Josh Allen archetype, turnovers (to an extent) are the cost of doing business.
POCKET PRESENCE
The most pleasantly surprising aspect of Darnold’s tape is his pocket mobility. He consistently senses edge pressure, climbs the pocket with his eyes downfield, and finds a clean launch point.
This play from Week 17 is a perfect example. He identifies Edgerrin Cooper (#56) turning the corner on Brian O’Neill and climbs the pocket to avoid the pressure. His first read, Hockenson, gets tied up by press coverage, so Darnold moves to the right side of the field and delivers a strike to Addison, who does a great job extending his route:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
There are many other examples on tape of Darnold’s creativity in maneuvering the pocket and locating downfield targets for explosive plays.
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
INTERMEDIATE PASSING
Darnold possesses all of the traits to thrive as an intermediate middle-of-the-field passer, and that has emerged as a primary strength in 2024. Through Week 17, Darnold has 11 completions on in-breaking routes between the numbers of 15-25 air yards, second most among NFL quarterbacks.
This is the bread and butter of any Shanahan-adjacent passing game, and Darnold’s confidence and anticipation in this phase have generated consistent chunk plays.
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
He's also used his eyes to manipulate hook defenders and pole-runners to widen backside passing lanes. In this play from Week 17, the Packers are in Tampa 2, with a deep middle defender covering vertical routes inside the numbers. Darnold looks left initially, influencing the linebacker to follow his eyes and isolating Hockenson down the right seam:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
Here, the deep middle defender turns to the left sideline at the snap, and Darnold reads the scissors concept to further shift him away from Justin Jefferson. He then abruptly progresses to the backside and connects with Jefferson on a dig route, converting third & 13:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
As with the hole shots, Darnold’s ambition over the middle of the field can get him into trouble. Anticipation throws are great until defenders don’t do what you anticipate them doing.
The assumption that linebackers and hook defenders are sitting ducks in zone coverage is usually correct, but when defenders read the backside dig, it can result in interceptions:
— James Foster (@JamesFosterNFL) January 1, 2025
How much success is a result of Minnesota’s offense?
Football is a team sport, so the entire unit deserves some credit for Minnesota’s offensive success.
Darnold would not be as productive throwing to bottom-tier receivers or throwing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. But as long as he isn’t being asked to uplift the most dysfunctional franchise in professional sports single-handedly, he’s a quality starter who can be the driving force behind an explosive and efficient offense.
would the results differ with McCarthy?
The answer to this question is 50 percent dependent on your opinion of McCarthy. I was fairly close to consensus on McCarthy and graded him as the fifth-best quarterback in the 2024 Draft class. I view him as a developmental but talented player with above-average physical traits who has a chance to become a top-15 quarterback.
From everything I can gather externally, he seems to have outstanding leadership qualities, but I don’t view his natural talent as particularly special by NFL quarterback standards. I don’t think he’s as physically gifted as Darnold.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is obviously higher on McCarthy than I am; at least, he was last April, and his opinion is the one that actually matters. Still, I have a hard time imagining him turning over the offense to a developmental rookie coming off meniscus surgery when he has a productive veteran alternative with the support of the locker room and plenty of untapped potential.
Darnold has made at least 20 throws this season that are more impressive than anything on McCarthy’s college tape. That’s understandable, considering Darnold is a seven-year NFL veteran, but the Vikings wouldn’t be getting a fully developed McCarthy next year if they chose him as their starter.
Darnold’s performance in 2024 is McCarthy's 90th percentile outcome, so replacing Darnold would be an “it could be anything, it could even be a boat” decision.
Is the difference worth paying for?
Assuming Darnold returns as Minnesota’s starter in 2025, it can either fully commit or keep their options open.
The aggressive strategy would be signing Darnold to a long-term deal and trading McCarthy for draft capital. If Darnold was guaranteed to maintain this level of play, this is the best way to maximize value since McCarthy is a depreciating asset.
However, this would leave them with no backup plan at quarterback, and they’d eventually be forced to part ways with other valuable contributors. Re-signing draft picks and spending in free agency is a lot more difficult when you’re paying your quarterback 17 percent of the cap.
The conservative approach, tagging Darnold and stashing McCarthy, is much smarter and keeps all of the Vikings’ options open for the future.
The franchise tag would not be a long-term limiting factor in roster construction and would give Darnold another year to prove himself as a top-12 quarterback worthy of a multi-year investment. If he regresses, they would still have McCarthy, fully healthy with another year of development under his belt, ready to take over as the starter.
