NFL Analysis
12/27/24
11 min read
Four Ups, Four Downs: Chiefs Revamped Offense Helping Spark Mahomes
Each week in Four Ups, Four Downs we look at four good and four bad things around the league. This week we’ll look at the Chiefs' new passing plan, Chargers explosive plays, Kyle Hamilton, and unblocked pressures.
Up: Chiefs Quick Game
During the past two games, there has been a shift in how the Chiefs have played offense, with the two lowest average seconds to throw for the season. Patrick Mahomes averaged just 2.25 seconds to throw against the Steelers in Week 17, the sixth-lowest figure of his career, according to TruMedia. That comes a week after he averaged 2.33 seconds against the Texans.
This has multiple benefits. Getting the ball out that quickly makes it harder for the defense to create pressure, which would be helpful in general but doubly so against the slate of pass rushers the Chiefs have faced during the past two weeks with Joe Thueny bouncing from guard to tackle.
It also helps get the ball out into space. It’s there where the Chiefs have found the best way to use their receivers, especially Xavier Worthy.
Against Houston, Kansas City had Worthy and Travis Kelce out to the left side of the offense. Kelce faked a screen, which brought in the slot defender, and Worthy ran a slant behind the charging defender for a gain of 19 yards.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
The Chiefs started this way early in the season, getting the ball out quickly and throwing short (the opposite of last season, when Mahomes held onto the ball and still had the lowest average depth of target in the league), but the offense has really leaned into it during the past two games.
Patrick Mahomes is fourth in EPA per play on the season on throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap (0.26) and first in success rate (58.6 percent). He’s only been pressured on 8.5 percent of those attempts this season, the lowest rate in the league. Finding explosives was a struggle on those quick throws earlier in the season, but Mahomes has a 14.6 percent explosive pass rate across the last two games.
Down: Bears Game Management
Thomas Brown started the 2024 season as the passing game coordinator. Since then, he has been promoted to offensive coordinator and head coach. There is a lot of added responsibility, so it shouldn’t be expected that Brown is fully prepared to take on every situation. However, it was a tough look when Matt Eberflus was fired for poor end-of-game management and the Bears did whatever it was they did on Thursday night against the Seahawks.
Down by three with 2:19 remaining, the Bears faced a fourth-and-1 at their own 39-yard line. The Seahawks had just called a timeout. Chicago kept the offense out with the goal of making Seattle jump offsides but as the play clock wound down, the Bears were called for a false start.
After the false start, the Bears kept the offense on the field for what was now a fourth-and-5, but they had to call a timeout — with the clock stopped — as the play clock was again set to expire.
Caleb Williams then made a spectacular play to DJ Moore for 14 yards and a first down.
Then, after a set of downs that included a dropped snap and a sack on first down followed by a 15-yard gain on third-and-14, the Bears had a first-and-10 at the Seattle 40-yard line.
After a first-down incompletion, the Bears had to call another timeout with the clock stopped.
It was a brutal sequence that eventually ended with an interception on fourth-and-10.
Up: Finding The Explosive With Ladd McConkey
It hasn’t been easy for the Chargers' passing offense this season. Justin Herbert has often gone into hero mode (complimentary), but we’ve seen his supporting cast let him down. Rookie receiver Ladd McConkey had been the Chargers’ most reliable receiver, but he missed a game due to injury and returned to be not quite 100 percent in Week 15. While he was out, it was clear how much his skill set was missed in the offense.
The Chargers got McConkey an explosive play on a crosser and a touchdown against the Buccaneers but he was more effective against the Broncos with two big plays and 2.42 yards per route run. Since Week 11, he’s tied for sixth in receptions of 20 or more yards, despite sitting out a game.
Against the Broncos, McConkey had another big gain as a crosser coming as the No. 3 in a tight trips bunch to get open against Denver’s zone defense.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
Later in the game, the Chargers ran a similar play on a deeper crosser with McConkey as the No. 2 on the trips side.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
Both of those plays also came with Herbert lined up in pistol, which the Chargers have done on 10.1 percent of snaps across the past two games. That’s opened up some more play-action looks. The Chargers have averaged 0.47 EPA per play from pistol during the past two weeks.
Down: Houston Unblocked Pressures
It’s been a long season for the Houston Texans offense, a wildly disappointing unit on a team that has easily locked in a division title. The offensive line has been an issue all season between failing to have effective run blocking and giving up easy pressure.
C.J. Stroud has only been under pressure a bit more often than he was last season (35 percent to 37.9 percent), but it’s how the pressure has come that creates problems.
One of the biggest issues as the Texans have swung through different variations of the offensive line has been stunts. They test the line’s communication, and Houston has struggled with that, failing to pass off the rushers, often allowing an unblocked pressure.
Against the Ravens, Kyle Van Noy got through the line untouched for an early sack on Stroud.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
The Texans have also struggled to pick up blitzes when the defense overloads one side and sim pressures when the defense acts like that’s what they’ll do. Baltimore used a four-man rush against Houston in the third quarter but two of the rushers were Marlon Humphrey and linebacker Chris Board. Board came unblocked around the edge for an easy sack on a second-and-8.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
Behind the most common offensive line combination, Stroud has been pressured on 38 percent of his dropbacks. That combination hasn’t played together since Halloween. During the past two weeks, Stroud has been pressured on 43.8 percent of his dropbacks. With so much pressure, Stroud has not been able to avoid it at the same rate he did as a rookie. That’s led to bad sacks, forced throws, and more throwaways than last season.
Up: Falcons Post-Bye Pass Rush Plan
For most of the season — and really the past decade — the Falcons have had the worst pass rush in the league. But there’s been a shift since Atlanta’s Week 12 bye. Since Week 13, the Falcons are 16th in pressure rate — a long way from XX before the bye — but first in sack rate at 11 percent.
Part of that stems from getting to face Drew Lock and Desmond Ridder as their past two opposing quarterbacks. But this time also includes facing the Vikings and Chargers.
The Falcons haven’t just suddenly improved as a pass rush, though there have been some good singular performances. This has changed because Atlanta has mixed up what the rush looks like to an extreme degree. This still isn’t a heavy blitz defense but since their bye, the Falcons have heavily leaned into Drop-8 coverages.
Combine that with one of the highest sim pressure rates in the league at 33.5 percent (fourth), per MatchQuarters and Field Vision, and it’s tough for opposing offenses to figure out who is going to be coming on a given play. Since the Falcons aren’t going to be winning many 1-on-1 pass rushes, creating that type of confusion along the line has been beneficial over the past few weeks.
An added pass rush threat, no matter the number of rushers, has also helped the secondary play more aggressively with those standout players getting to jump in front of hurried passes as Jessie Bates did against the Giants.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
Down: Patriots Receivers
Drake Maye might be having the most impressive season for a 2024 rookie quarterback based on his supporting cast. The Patriots are 32nd in pass block win rate while New England’s receivers have some of the worst tracking metrics from ESPN Analytics.
Demario Douglas has the highest Open score of the group but that’s mostly because he has a 5.5-yard aDOT and shorter passes are typically more open. The other receivers, such as Ja’Lynn Polk and Kayshon Boutte have two of the lowest Open scores among qualified receivers. Among 142 receivers and tight ends, Boutte ranks 141st and Polk ranks 139th.
The Patriots don’t drop a lot of passes (just 2.2 percent of Maye’s attempts have been dropped) but there aren’t always good windows to throw into for the quarterback. He’s having to throw the receivers open more often than the receivers doing the work for him.
But there’s so little margin for error for those passes to be completed. Maye has been charted with the second-highest rate of inaccurate passes on throws of 11 or more air yards (31.6 percent) but that’s because every pass needs to be perfect with so little separation in order for them to be completed. It’s a higher degree of difficulty than most — if not all — quarterbacks have to deal with this season.
Yet, Maye has been making the most of what he’s been forced to work with. Maye has a completion percentage over expectation of at least +8.0 in each of the past three games and four of his past five, per Next Gen Stats. He’s still 17th in EPA per play this season and seventh since Week 13.
Up: Kyle Hamilton, Playmaker
There’s been a lot of talk about how the Baltimore defense has improved drastically since the decision to move Kyle Hamilton back into a more traditional safety role. That’s true. Hamilton’s move to safety has been a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency move that has helped shore up the deep defense, which was one of the league’s worst during the first half of the season.
Since Week 11, the Ravens are third in defensive EPA per play after ranking 28th through Week 10. Hamilton went from playing deep 22.8 percent of the time through Week 10 to 68.2 percent since.
Moving Hamilton further away from the ball has reduced some of his opportunities to make plays near the line of scrimmage—we’ve seen something similar with the Detroit Lions and Brian Branch—but Hamilton has been able to make the most of his new role because he’s so versatile.
Having Hamilton play more deep safety doesn’t mean he has to play there exclusively, and he’s still moved around the defense a lot since the switch was made. It’s those plays that still highlight how special of a player he is.
On his interception against the Texans in Week 17, watch how much ground he covers. Hamilton starts in the slot but then bails to the middle of the field. He watches the receiver run the crosser, looks back to the quarterback, and then turns his hips to run with the crosser and get underneath the route for the pick. It’s an incredible individual play.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
Down: This Christmas Week Schedule
It’s too much. Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. That’s a lot of NFL. I don’t subscribe to the “you’ll be killing for these games in May” line of thinking. Even the good games can be a lot. Games like Seahawks-Bears are worse. Of course everyone is still going to watch, but it doesn't mean stretching out all of these games is a good idea.
