Fantasy

9/6/22

7 min read

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Kev Wheeler

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A week from today, nearly everyone interested in NFL football will be talking about how we just witnessed the craziest first week of football ever. Like clockwork, everyone will be amazed how some third-string RB and special-team WR scored three TDs or went for 150-plus yards. Every week, there is tremendous variance in football; we just don’t have relevant, applicable data yet. We can use stats from last season, but every team has changed since then, some in very significant ways, on both offense and defense.

Fantasy Rankings Methodology

My usual process is only to take data from the previous six weeks. I believe anything older than that holds little relevance unless a player returns from injury or has some reason to discount the newer information. In Week 1, we have very little reliable information. The last six weeks of the previous season can give some indication, and the preseason could provide a glimpse of what’s to come, or it could be a mirage.

Camp reports become essential but are usually biased, so they can’t be taken verbatim. Week 1 rankings become fairly narrative based, and I will try to include that information as the week progresses. I think the best way to start our Week 1 approach is to look at implied team totals based on Vegas odds and adjust from there. We need to pay attention to DFS articles and individual player prop-bets (over/under) to get a good idea of how to project median outcomes.

When examining these rankings, consider that I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex, a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within three spots of each other, the difference between them is negligible; they are expected to score the same amount of points, so in those cases, go with your gut, flip a coin, or ask Larky.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - RBs and WRs (Tier 1)

I’m lower than most on Cam Akers this week. The Rams were 31st in the league in rushing EPA in 202; they also lost two starting offensive linemen this offseason. With Akers coming off an injury and most likely splitting the workload, only a random TD will save his stat line this week.

I’m also below ECR on Breece Hall. I expect Hall to split touches with Carter for a few weeks, although he is likelier to pop a big run.

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I'm optimistic for CeeDee Lamb this week. It’s expected that Dallas will have a similar game plan as they did in their opener against Tampa last year and throw the ball at an over 80% rate. Running the ball against Tampa has proven futile in the past couple of years.

Christian Kirk saw eight targets in the 32 plays with the first-team offense in preseason Week 3. I expect him to see at least ten targets a game.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - QBs and TEs

Josh Allen might have to run to get his points this week, The Rams (48.6%) allowed the second lowest rate of touchdowns to come by passing in 2021.

I’m discounting the entire Rams passing offense this week. The Bills ranked first in the league in the lowest rate (38.7%) of passing touchdowns allowed last season.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - RBs and WRs (Tier 2)

For updates follow me on Twitter at @FF_Wheeler. These rankings will be updated on Sunday mornings here (hyperlinked).

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Kev Wheeler

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Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.