Fantasy
9/12/24
7 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 2
Exercising patience is a vitally important aspect of life and fantasy football.
Week 1 of NFL action certainly witnessed its fair share of inept offenses and disappointing results from superstars, but don’t feel like the sky is falling if your team is struggling. Not all of the busts from last weekend will disappoint for the rest of this season.
But as we review this list of Week 2 start/sit picks, remember that being overly patient when early results tell you to bail can also be harmful.
Some of the preseason darlings hoping to establish roles are quickly becoming irrelevant, and those names will be highlighted as part of this exercise. Those are names fantasy managers can consider as early-season cut candidates if Week 2 doesn’t fare any better.
Conversely, we’ll discuss a handful of players whose opening statements on the season are suboptimal but not bad enough to give up hope yet.
That’s the theme, and we’re sticking to it — onto the picks!
>> READ MORE: Week 2 Fantasy Rankings
Week 2 Quarterback Starts
- Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs DEN)
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (@ KC)
- Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (@ NE)
Based on early reports from the Steelers, it seems as though we’ll see Justin Fields under center again in Week 2 as Russell Wilson continues to work through his calf issue.
As of this writing, there’s no guarantee that Wilson won’t recover in time to get the nod against the Broncos. Should he miss time, Fields becomes an immediate QB1-level option.
Fields is always a massive threat with his legs. Between 2021 and 2023, his average of 55.5 rushing yards per game ranks second among all quarterbacks, behind only Lamar Jackson, per Stathead.
He’s got a solid chance of adding that Konami Code boon to lineups against a poor Broncos defense on Sunday.
Geno Smith got a little unlucky in the season opener, but he was efficient last weekend. According to TruMedia, the Seahawks gunslinger ranked fourth in First Downs Per Pass Attempt (44 percent) against a league-leading 46.4 percent blitz rate on his dropbacks in Week 1.
For context, Seahawks RT George Fant left the contest with a right knee injury before the end of the first quarter, so it is admirable that Smith delivered as well as he did without an anchor of his protection.
He and our next player are worth keeping faith going for.
Yes, Week 1’s loss vs. the New England Patriots was a disaster for the Bengals. As bad as that game was, Joe Burrow completed 74.4 percent of his passes and can rebound against a Kansas City Chiefs defense he’s historically performed well against.
According to Statmuse, Burrow averages 313 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game when facing the Chiefs (including the postseason).
Always bet on superstars in premier matchups.
Week 2 Quarterback Sits
- Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (@ TEN)
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants (@ WAS)
Sorry, New York football fans.
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ passing offense looked somewhat stagnant vs. the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. The former MVP’s inability to crack 200 passing yards despite facing the blitz on just 9.1 percent of his dropbacks in primetime isn’t a good sign for a man coming off an Achilles tear.
However, the Jets generated 6.6 net yards gained per pass attempt in the contest, a total that ranks 12th in the league amid a downturn in aerial success in Week 1, according to Pro Football Reference.
This is all to say that he belongs on your bench for now, but don’t give up on Rodgers just yet.
As for Daniel Jones, just don’t do it to yourself. He was already a fringe Superflex starter, and whatever slight rushing upside he’s historically brought won't be enough to overcome a dismal offensive ecosystem.
You can drop him in 1-QB formats, even if he’s “just your backup.”
Week 2 Running Back Starts
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (vs SEA)
- J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers (@ CAR)
- Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (@ JAC)
The Patriots’ offense is crummy, but Rhamondre Stevenson’s status as a true bell cow running back stands out as the lone blossoming flower in New England’s wasteland of fantasy relevance.
The former fourth-round pick concluded Week 1 with a 79.7 percent snap share (eighth among running backs) and a whopping total of 28 touch opportunities (carries + targets), per Fantasy Points Data. Stevenson’s only competition for touches, Antonio Gibson, appeared on just 13 of the Pats’ offensive snaps and is our first example of a potential fantasy sleeper gone awry.
Believe what this coaching staff is telling you: Stevenson will run the damn ball, and he will do it a lot.
In keeping with that spirit, now is the appropriate time to give J.K. Dobbins his flowers.
Having already suffered a multi-ligament knee injury in 2021, the ex-Raven looked to be trending toward washing out of the league after tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 1 of 2023.
But Dobbins led the Los Angeles Chargers backfield, despite the long odds, with a 59.3 percent snap share en route to recording 139 total scrimmage yards in the team’s opener vs. the Raiders. He showed the doubters, including myself, that those legs have juice left.
I’d also be remiss not to enter into the record that Dobbins registered a 57.1 percent route participation rate, perhaps teasing some point-per-reception (PPR) upside on the horizon; that'll be something to watch as the season unfolds.
While I'm still a skeptic in the long-term, given his track record of health, Dobbins will be worth the squeeze as long as he can play at this rate, stave off backfield mate Gus Edwards, and keep rookie Kimani Vidal as a weekly inactive.
The gut-based vibes and usage rates are strongly correlated with this one.
As for Jerome Ford, the Browns’ offense will be a nightmare as long as Deshaun Watson is under center. Fortunately, that doesn't matter for Ford’s fantasy prospects if he continues to register a 70+ percent share of the backfield snaps as he did vs. the Cowboys.
He’s the undisputed No. 1 until Nick Chubb comes back.
Week 1 Running Back Sits
- Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ DET)
- Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (vs LAC)
- Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (@ KC)
Here are a couple of the late-round draft darlings who might be dead on arrival.
Chuba Hubbard netted a measly six touch opportunities on a 54.5 percent snap share in Week 1 vs. the Saints, experiencing a frustrating split with teammate and plodder extraordinaire Miles Sanders.
Whatever meat was perceived to be on the bone in this backfield until rookie Jonathon Brooks returns from his ACL injury is spoiled. Hubbard is a lineup zero.
After being bullish on his prospects, Chase Brown is a massive personal swing-and-miss from last week’s start/sit picks. The second-year speedster only found himself on the field for 17 of the Bengals’ 48 offensive snaps in Week 1 and even ran fewer routes than his counterpart Zack Moss.
It is too soon to bail, but Brown’s letdown may build a drop-worthy case that is too strong if these trends continue.
However, we can’t end this section on a sour note.
Bucky Irving of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a Week 1 darling on shaky ground who deserves a shoutout, at minimum. Don’t be too easily persuaded by the 76-scrimmage yard performance the rookie put forth in garbage time vs. the Washington Commanders.
Still, you’re justified in taking a shot to roster Irving if you’re a deep-league manager who scooped him off waivers — he did look electric.
Irving’s inclusion is to say that starting him without more evidence is misguided.
Week 1 Wide Receiver Starts
- Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers (@ MIN)
- Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (vs CIN)
- Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (vs TB)
Deebo Samuel Sr's multifaceted skill set will spearhead the 49ers’ offensive efforts as long as Christian McCaffrey is out.
On 17 touches, the former All-Pro recorded a robust 31.8 percent first-read target rate in Week 1 vs. the Jets, per Fantasy Points Data, netting Samuel Sr. a total of 18.7 PPR points. That workload includes eight carries for 21 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Coach Kyle Shanahan’s willingness to run the show through Samuel Sr. as a runner and receiver is rare and should be coveted.
Speaking of highly involved chain movers, Rashee Rice posted an identical 31.8 percent first-read target rate as the Chiefs’ lead pass-catcher in Week 1. Rice is poised to be a reliable blanket for QB Patrick Mahomes, as he was in his 2023 rookie campaign.
Jameson Williams might stand out as a surprise in this section. He could establish a dominant role in the Lions’ passing game, as he posted an eye-popping 68.1 percent air yards share and led the team with nine targets in Week 1.
Yes, the Lions have a bonafide slot receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who should bounce back in the coming weeks, but Williams is beginning to show some of the promise that led to his selection as the 12th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Call it buying into prospect pedigree or being a sucker for speedy field stretchers, but I’m willing to buy into this potential breakout.
Week 1 Wide Receiver Sits
- Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (@ KC)
- Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs CLE)
- Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (vs IND)
One of the challenges of putting together initial weekly fantasy rankings is that there is a lot of information we aren’t privy to early in the week.
For example, Tee Higgins' health. The Bengals wideout is reportedly still dealing with a hamstring injury that could delay his 2024 debut until Week 3.
We certainly want to start a talented player like him if he’s good to go, but Higgins has a history of hamstring issues. He missed roughly three and a half games due to similar ailments just one season ago.
Higgins is ranked as a borderline WR2 this week on the wishful strength of his abilities, though I wouldn’t blame anyone for choosing to opt out of starting him, even if he receives the green light.
Another player affected by injury is Christian Watson. No Packers wideout should be trusted as long as QB Jordan Love is out with his MCL injury.
As for Christian Kirk, it’s probably best to wait and see how this receiving corps shakes out in Jacksonville. The Jaguars only recorded 50 offensive plays in Week 1, the fifth-lowest. They didn’t get much of an opportunity to give any clear-cut indication of what the target distribution will be.
It’s best to sit Kirk and see if his struggles are more of a trend than a one-off.
Week 1 Tight End Starts
- Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (@ BAL)
- Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (vs LV)
- Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs CLE)
To be clear, the last section ended by saying that we should be cautious with the Jaguars’ wide receivers. Nothing was said about their tight end.
In fact, Evan Engram registered the fourth-highest target share (18 percent) of any tight end in Week 1, according to Fantasy Points Data.
The veteran only recorded one catch against the Dolphins, though the underlying information clearly suggests he’s an intended focal point for Jacksonville. Better days are ahead for the former two-time Pro Bowler.
Isaiah Likely and Brock Bowers should be no-brainers. Both youngsters stand out as two of just four tight ends who logged at least a 20 percent target share in their respective offenses on opening weekend.
When it comes to tight ends, follow the targets. These are the guys who are getting them.
Week 1 Tight End Sits
- Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (@ HOU)
- Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (vs CHI)
Let’s close with a pair of names that should be forgotten for fantasy purposes.
Dalton Schultz deserves credit as someone who recorded a 76.4 percent route participation rate in Week 1. Among tight ends, that stands out as the ninth-highest total.
Unfortunately, those routes were hollow as the former Cowboy secured precisely zero targets.
The wide receiver trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell dominate the Texans' passing attack. Schultz would require multiple injuries to members of his ecosystem to ascend to secondary target-receiving consideration in the pecking order.
To borrow an iconic phrase from the 2003 comedy film “Mean Girls,” Schultz is a fetch player. He may belong to a high-powered offense, but his fantasy relevance is likely never going to happen.
The same fate also applies to Cole Kmet. He failed to exceed a 30 percent route participation in a part-time duty split with teammate Gerald Everett.
Neither player is worth your time outside of deeper leagues or tight end premium scoring.
