Fantasy
11/21/24
4 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Advice for NFL Week 12
It will be difficult for all fantasy managers to set a quality lineup in Week 12.
Between a largely barren waiver wire and the fact that six NFL teams are on a bye, the challenge level for fantasy is cranked all the way up. No one will fault you for “doing what you gotta do” with some of your decisions.
After all, any decent and healthy eligible player is a valuable commodity in these situations.
Regardless, we still need to determine which players will be more or less helpful in their respective matchups. That’s technically the essence of any weekly start/sit article, but in the case of Week 12, it’s truly just that.
So before we dive into it all, understand that any player deemed a “sit” is acceptable in Week 12 if they are simply the best option available to you. It’s just that some guys are slightly more questionable than others; that’s what we’ll be highlighting. View this exercise with that hefty grain of salt implied, and do your best to earn a victory.
With that, here are some of the best starts and more questionable “sits” in Week 12 NFL action:
Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Advice
Week 12 Quarterback Starts
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ NYG)
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs PHI)
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs BAL)
Starting with a positive note, one of the most exciting aspects of Week 12 is the expected return of Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans. The five-time Pro Bowl wideout has been missing from action since Week 7 after sustaining a hamstring injury.
In that timeframe, his quarterback, Baker Mayfield, has done his best to stay afloat, although the difference in statistical output is much better with Evans in tow, per 4for4:
| Baker Mayfield Stats | With Mike Evans | Without Mike Evans |
| Games | 7 | 3 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 265.6 | 215.3 |
| Passing Touchdowns Per Game | 2.57 | 2.00 |
| Fantasy Points Per Game (four-point per passing touchdown) | 23.2 | 16.4 |
Between Evans' return and the fact that the New York Giants rank 24th in pass defense DVOA this season, according to FTN, I would expect a resurgent high-end performance from Mayfield on Sunday.
Another quarterback I’ve been keen on for a while is Matthew Stafford. To those who read every weekly fantasy article, I promise this will be the last time you must endure reading these facts. Still, it’s vital to remind folks that the former Super Bowl winner ranks second among quarterbacks in passing yards per game (291.2) and eighth in fantasy points per game (20.1) in the last four weeks, according to FantasyData.
The Los Angeles Rams don’t have the easiest matchup in Week 12 (Philadelphia Eagles rank fifth in pass defense DVOA), but any signal-caller who gets the pleasure of throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should overcome this circumstance.
In a week where putting your best foot forward matters more than anything, roll comfortably with Stafford or the other Los Angeles quarterback, Justin Herbert of the Chargers.
Through the past six weeks, the former Oregon product is averaging 268 passing yards, 26.3 rushing yards, and 19.4 fantasy points per game while also standing fourth among quarterbacks in adjusted net air yards per attempt (8.20) and tied for tenth in EPA per dropback (0.12) with Mayfield, per TruMedia.
Counting on another big performance against a Baltimore Ravens defense that allows the most passing yards per game (284.5) of any unit in the NFL this season feels like a wise bet to make.
Week 12 Quarterback Sits
- Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (vs ARI)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs NE)
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs DET)
A past topic that hasn’t been brought up here in a while is Geno Smith's lack of fantasy upside despite his team’s penchant for throwing the ball.
According to NFELO, the Seattle Seahawks ranked second with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2024 with a +2.3 percent Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and Smith himself ranked third in the league in overall pass attempts (374).
You’d think we’d be getting more production out of a situation like this, but even just looking at the past three weeks amid the breakout of wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith stands fifth in passing yards per game (265.3) while averaging only one touchdown and 15.3 fantasy points per game.
Regardless of opponent, we just can’t seem to trust Smith to get it done for fantasy purposes. Similar statements can be made about Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa as well.
Since returning from concussion issues in Week 8, the lefty is tossing just 240 passing yards per game (15th among quarterbacks) and connecting with receivers for fewer than two passing touchdowns per game in that month-long span.
However, his saving grace this week is that the New England Patriots rank second-worst in pass defense DVOA and surrender a passer rating of 98.9 to opposing quarterbacks this season, a total that stands 10th-highest in the league, per Pro Football Reference.
Given that information, I wouldn’t blame you for rolling with Tua in a pinch, but just beware of the risk.
The same goes for Anthony Richardson, who absolutely went off against the New York Jets in his return last week but will now have to stare down a Detroit Lions secondary that’s held quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating (73.6) of any defense in the NFL this year.
Week 12 Running Back Starts
- Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CLE)
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (@ MIA)
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (vs TB)
Warren’s role in the Steelers’ offense isn’t quite as robust as in previous years, although he’s still maintaining a reasonably healthy amount of work.
In the two games since the team’s Week 9 bye, the former UDFA is recording 29.9 percent of the backfield carries and receives a 9.9 percent target share as a pass-catcher, according to Fantasy Points Data. Warren is the perfect type of bye week filler/injury replacement flex option in fantasy, and this week is precisely the kind of opportunity where he comes in handy.
As for Stevenson, he’s recorded at least 20 carries in three out of his last four games, and this week, he will face off against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA. Nothing deeper than that; it’s just a good spot for a player who touches the ball a ton.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. also fits the bill of that mold. The talented rookie has played on 70.4 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps since Week 5, with a 45.6 percent route participation rate and an average of 18.6 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game.
Although the change in quarterback from Daniel Jones to Tommy DeVito will undoubtedly affect the potency of this offense, I still expect Tracy Jr. to be involved heavily enough to overcome the circumstance.
Week 12 Running Back Sits
- Audric Estime, Denver Broncos (@ LV)
- Cam Akers, Minnesota Vikings (@ CHI)
- Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (vs PIT)
Understanding that any running back with a pulse can be helpful this week, let these facts just serve as a reminder that you may not be getting the high-end value that you’re looking for out of this trio of runners in Week 12.
Nick Chubb is producing just 42.3 scrimmage yards per game and 6.2 PPR points per game since returning from injury this season. The Cleveland Browns’ offense is exceptionally pass-heavy under QB Jameis Winston’s tutelage, leaving little room for Chubb to be a difference-maker.
Also, not helping matters is that the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.8) of any unit in 2024; it’s just a bad spot for Chubb overall.
Audric Estime played on just 12 of the offense’s 60 snaps and recorded only 25 scrimmage yards against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11 after experiencing a minor breakout the week before. It stinks. I’m a little salty about it, too, but the odds are he won’t be particularly helpful to anyone moving forward.
At least with Cam Akers, there’s an argument to be made, so I saved him for last in this section.
In the past two weeks, the journeyman has accounted for 39.4 percent of the Vikings’ backfield touch opportunities behind starter Aaron Jones. In more digestible terms, Akers is given an average of 13 opportunities to touch the ball per game as the secondary runner, a noticeable upward tick.
Placing Akers in this section is almost regrettable given the dire nature of Week 12 broadly, but my primary objection is that it’s just a minimal sample size to go off of. If nothing else, pick up Akers and see if this continues.
If you start him, you start him. And heck, you could do a lot worse than trusting a guy going up against the Chicago Bears (31st in run defense DVOA, 130.3 rushing yards allowed per game).
Week 12 Wide Receiver Starts
- Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (vs BAL)
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CLE)
- Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (@ GB)
From here, let’s just roll with quick-hitting facts and figures to help make decisions easier:
Per FTN, the Baltimore Ravens allow the most receiving yards per game (106.5) to an opposing team’s WR1. This bodes well for Ladd McConkey, who has received 20.4 percent of QB Justin Herbert’s throws in the past six weeks.
Pickens is averaging 91.3 receiving yards per game with a team-leading 27.0 percent target share in four games with QB Russell Wilson under center. In fantasy terms, we’re talking 17.7 PPR points per game.
Jauan Jennings has been beginning to heat up significantly during the past two weeks.
In that span, the veteran leads the San Francisco 49ers with a 38.9 percent air yards share, a 32.8 percent target share, and 0.31 targets per route run, meaning that the ball comes his way on nearly one-third of all routes Jennings runs.
You simply can’t pass up that kind of involvement.
UPDATE (11/22/2024): 49ers QB Brock Purdy (right shoulder) has since been ruled out for Week 12. Though backup Brandon Allen may prove to be capable, this development undoubtedly brings hindrance to the upside of Jennings. He's still worth a speculative start, given the week's circumstances, but keep expectations low.
Week 12 Wide Receiver Sits
- Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (vs SF)
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (vs ARI)
- Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (@ LAC)
Watson’s name cropped up across several waiver wire articles this week, and for a somewhat good reason.
Indeed, a four-catch, 150-yard blowup against the Chicago Bears in Week 11 reminded fantasy managers of Watson's field-stretching dominance. However, I didn’t include him and don’t recommend being particularly trustworthy of him because he’s only logged a route participation rate greater than 66 percent twice this year and has just five games over 50 percent.
Unless the Packers commit to using Watson more, he’s entirely too risky of a bet to make.
As for Lockett and Bateman, their roles in their respective offenses just continue to shrink.
Going back to the aforementioned breakout of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it’s been three weeks' worth of sample size, and during that time, Lockett is only receiving 3.3 targets per game on a 9.5 percent target share. What makes that even more sad is the reality that DK Metcalf has only played in one of those games throughout this span.
Following a lovely stretch of flex-level production between Weeks 5 and 7, Bateman has experienced a month-long drought of turning 5.5 targets per game into 34.2 receiving yards and 7.9 PPR points per game.
Whatever magic he captured is beginning to fade, and I don’t feel comfortable about his chances to rebound against the Chargers’ sixth-ranked pass-defense DVOA mark in 2024.
Week 12 Tight End Starts
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers (vs KC)
- Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (vs DAL)
- Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (@ MIA)
Since Week 5, Ja’Tavion Sanders has led the Panthers in target share (14.4 percent) and holds a 1.76 yards per route run mark that ranks tied for 11th-best among tight ends in that span who’ve registered at least 100 routes.
The rookie should have a decent opportunity to continue his success in Week 12 going up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that allows the fourth-most half-PPR points (12.5) to the tight end position this season, according to FantasyPros.
As for Ertz, he’s only seen fewer than five targets per game just once since Week 4. The veteran is a huge favorite in the Commanders’ passing game. Though the Cowboys have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game to tight ends (39.6) in 2024, it’s safe to bet on Ertz’s hefty involvement.
A similar argument exists for Hunter Henry, who hasn’t yielded less than five targets in a game since all the way back in Week 6. When in doubt, chase the volume.
Week 12 Tight End Sits
- Theo Johnson, New York Giants (vs TB)
- Austin Hooper, New England Patriots (@ MIA)
Dynasty managers should be encouraged by what we’ve seen from Theo Johnson lately.
The rookie has posted a 73.5 percent route participation rate and a 14.9 percent target share in the Giants’ offense in the past three games. These are lovely indicators of a potentially important role on the team next year.
Unfortunately, this exercise is one based on season-long fantasy, not dynasty. I don’t know that a change to Tommy DeVito at quarterback will be all that good for any primary pass-catcher on the Giants, and I’m sure as hell not going to bet on a rookie to thrive in this suboptimal landscape.
With Hooper, it’s neat that he’s converted an average of 3.5 receptions and 49.5 receiving yards per game over the past two weeks, but he’s still the second tight end on a New England offense behind a guy I just finished highlighting as a start. The explanation doesn’t get much clearer than that.
Hopefully, this article was helpful. Remember: whatever you’ve got to do with your lineup this week, just go for it. Hold your nose and throw it up to the fantasy gods for aid.
