Fantasy
12/23/24
7 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: NFL Week 17 Holiday Games Preview
Happy holidays and a glorious fantasy championship week to all.
Week 17 of the NFL season concludes the fantasy schedule in the vast majority of leagues. Congratulations if you’re one of the lucky few who’ve survived to this point. Everything you did in the fall and early winter seasons has almost paid off.
However, the tricky part of this time of year is asking yourself what else you can do for your team.
Those looking for a waiver wire article are out of luck. If you’re one of the two remaining teams in your league, odds are you don’t need anyone to pick up. If you do, then Las Vegas Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah and Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan are the athletes du jour.
Because of the truncated holiday schedule, this will be the only content that addresses a preview of the holiday and Thursday night games. Week 17 rankings and start/sit will not be posted until Friday so that everyone at The 33rd Team and you readers can enjoy the festivities and endure whatever travel is necessary without being bogged down by thinking about fantasy football.
So here goes a quick-hitting guide for the trio of unusually scheduled Week 17 games:
Week 17 Fantasy Football Preview
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Wed. 12/25 at 1 p.m.
Quick Analysis
Despite being the host of the Yuletide contest, the Pittsburgh Steelers will have one heck of a mountain to climb to beat the AFC-leading Kansas City Chiefs.
Much of the Steelers’ ability to be competitive will depend on whether WR George Pickens (hamstring) will be available on Wednesday. His presence is sorely missed, as evidenced by the team’s poor passing success of late.
Through the past three weeks without him in the lineup, the Steelers rank 29th in Offensive Throw EPA (-6.36) and EPA per dropback (-0.20), per TruMedia. QB Russell Wilson himself is only averaging 167.7 passing yards and 27 pass attempts per game in this span, according to FantasyData.
On the other hand, the Chiefs' offense hasn’t been remarkably better. Still, in the same three-week window, their defense ranks second-best in overall defensive EPA (21.46), predominately carrying them to victory.
Key Matchups
Steelers running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will be at a hefty disadvantage against a Chiefs run defense that’s allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game (91.4) to opposing backfields in 2024, according to Pro Football Reference.
Chiefs pass-catchers are again looking at a potentially banged-up Steelers secondary. Already without safety DeSean Elliot (hamstring) and CB Donte Jackson (back) in Week 16, their top corner, Joey Porter Jr., exited the contest against the Baltimore Ravens due to a knee injury and was listed as a non-participant on this Sunday’s estimated injury report.
Should any combination of the three sit out for Week 17, Patrick Mahomes II and company will be in for a field day through the air. The Steelers’ secondary ranks a mediocre 16th in total pass defense DVOA (-7.85) through the past three weeks and would only be worse off without their top two corners and primary box safety.
Another important note is that the Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards (1,090) and third-most receptions (94) to opposing tight ends this season. While not a ton of volume, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth has seen the team's second-highest target share (13.7 percent) without Pickens in the lineup; he could be worth a mid-tier TE play.
Starts and Sits
Start - Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
Flex - Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth
Sit - Steelers RB Najee Harris, Steelers RB Jaylen Warren, Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Date/Time: Wed. 12/25 at 4:30 p.m.
Quick Analysis
This section won’t be bogged down by too much information about the Baltimore Ravens’ offense.
You know exactly who’s been buttering the bread of success for them this season: QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry. No need to overthink things with either of them.
On the flip side of the ball, the Ravens' defense has shown some improvement at defending through the air, ranking eighth in defensive total pass EPA (4.31) since Week 14. For context, they rank 28th in this measure on the entire season, so this uptick is extremely notable.
Key Matchups
Given how much better the Ravens are at defending the pass of late, it will be a rough go for Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud.
The second-year signal-caller sits at QB27 in fantasy points per game (14) during the past three weeks, averaging a meager 205.7 passing yards per game on 33 attempts per game. He’s not exactly been a shining fantasy contributor, and now he’ll be without WR Tank Dell due to a dislocated kneecap suffered this past Saturday against the Chiefs.
The interesting life hack that the Texans will have is that the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most receptions (83) to tight ends in 2024. TE Dalton Schultz did step up in the absence of Dell, recording five receptions on eight targets for 54 yards in Week 16 — perhaps he’ll be the sneaky beneficiary play this week.
Starts and Sits
Start - Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Texans RB Joe Mixon, Texans WR Nico Collins
Flex - Ravens WR Zay Flowers, Texans TE Dalton Schultz
Sit - Texans QB C.J. Stroud
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Thurs. 12/26 at 8:15 p.m.
Quick Analysis
This far out from Thursday, putting together a comprehensive preview of this game is challenging.
Still, the most notable information that can be passed along is that in his first game back from injury, Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III recorded a 56.7 percent snap share in Week 16 vs. the Minnesota Vikings. Though the veteran toted the back just eight times on the ground, according to Fantasy Points Data, he registered a 39.1 percent route participation and tied his season-best eight targets in the contest.
If you were in any way trepidatious to start Walker III, don’t be.
Key Matchups
Since Week 14, the Seahawks have held an opposing team’s starting running back to under 100 yards rushing and rank seventh in rush defense EPA (40.93). This spells bad news for an already underwhelming Bears RB D’Andre Swift, who has averaged 41.2 rushing yards per game since new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown took over in Week 12.
Conversely, the Seahawks’ secondary ranks 26th in total pass defense DVOA (-19.97) in this same window. Any football observer knows that the Bears have seen an uptick in passing under Thomas Brown, as evidenced by rookie QB Caleb Williams’ average of 36 pass attempts per game during the past five weeks.
Don’t be shocked to see continued quality outputs from the likes of WRs Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and perhaps even rookie Rome Odunze.
Starts and Sits
Start - Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears WR Keenan Allen, Bears WR DJ Moore
Flex - Bears QB Caleb Williams (call this more of a streamer, I suppose)
Sit - Seahawks QB Geno Smith, Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, Bears RB D’Andre Swift
