Fantasy
11/7/24
14 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Advice for NFL Week 10
The fantasy playoffs are only a few short weeks away in most leagues.
That means now, more than ever, it’s vital to be thorough with your lineup choices. Any start/sit decision can be the difference between a win and a loss.
Indeed, no one will bat 1.000 while setting the perfect roster all the time, though it’s worth trying to be as informed as possible. That said, allow me to help make some of your choices easier. Here are my start/sit picks for Week 10 of the NFL season:
Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings
NFL Fantasy Football Week 10 Start, Sit Advice
Week 10 Quarterback Starts
- Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs (vs DEN)
- Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ WAS)
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (@ HOU)
After a painfully slow start to the season, Mahomes has been much better lately for fantasy purposes.
Of course, the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champion is playing well enough in real-life football to help his team stay undefeated, but he’s now back up to averaging 267.5 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game in the past two weeks, per FantasyData.
It’s also notable that Mahomes' last two starts mark the first time he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in back-to-back weeks since September, and Week 9 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers marks the first time Mahomes has cleared 20 fantasy points in four-point per passing touchdown scoring since Week 12 of 2023.
Clearly, the addition of WR De’Andre Hopkins is starting to pay dividends for the Chiefs. If that’s all it took to get these wheels turning, then I’ll be trustworthy of Mahomes every week, regardless of matchup.
Across his first two starts, Russell Wilson is averaging 271.1 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. In fantasy terms, the veteran is churning out 19.3 points per game, good enough to be a starter in most formats. This showdown could be a relatively high-scoring affair, and I want as much to do with it as possible as a fantasy manager.
Don’t get me wrong. The Commanders’ addition of CB Marshon Lattimore will make a tremendous impact on their ability to stop the pass. However, the Washington secondary is still prone to giving up mistakes through the air (17th in pass defense DVOA, per FTN). I don’t know if they will suddenly become a shutdown unit by this coming Sunday.
As I shared in my weekly rankings article, Jared Goff has thrown more than 30 passes in a game just once this season (the Lions’ offense ranks 23rd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) at -5.5 percent, per NFELO). That means you have to be confident of when you expect the veteran signal-caller to be on a heater regarding touchdown scoring.
Fortunately for fantasy managers, the Houston Texans defense Goff faces this week allows the highest touchdown rate (6.9 percent) to opposing offenses in 2024. Even though they aren’t a soft secondary by any means (sixth in pass defense DVOA), their proneness to giving up scores aligns with a game script necessary for fantasy success.
Week 10 Quarterback Sits
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (vs DET)
- Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts (vs BUF)
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs NE)
Stroud hasn’t been the same without WR Nico Collins (hamstring) in the lineup.
Since Week 5, in the four games following Collins’ absence, the second-year gunslinger has thrown for more than 200 passing yards and multiple touchdowns just once while averaging a putrid 11.9 points per game. The rest of the Texans' surrounding cast simply isn’t healthy enough for Stroud to sustain fantasy success.
Keep him on the bench for a while.
As bad as Joe Flacco was against the Minnesota Vikings this past Sunday night, it’s worth pointing out he’s also failed to throw for more than 200 passing yards in his past two starts combined with a passer rating of 63.7.
It wasn’t just one bad start from the 39-year-old. Until we see some sort of return to the early-season/late-2023 magic from Flacco that he had with the Cleveland Browns, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to trust him in a critical fantasy week.
Another player who has lost their spark is Caleb Williams. In two contests since returning from their bye week, Williams is averaging 174.0 passing yards per game, carrying a 49.2 percent completion rate and a passer rating of 65.4, just one spot ahead of the aforementioned Flacco in that span.
You can leave him alone, too.
Week 10 Running Back Starts
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (@ CHI)
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ WAS)
- Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers (@ TB)
2024 has been a weird season for Rhamondre Stevenson.
The New England Patriots bruiser has recorded as many games with 20+ points in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring (three) as he’s recorded with fewer than 10. However, Week 10 presents a good matchup against the Chicago Bears, who rank 30th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 131.6 rushing yards per game this year.
In what seems to be an extreme up-or-down year for the back, I expect this week to be a rather sizable “up.”
Ever since Russell Wilson took over as the Steelers’ starter, the threat he brings with his arm has opened significant opportunities for the Steelers to run the ball more effectively, as evidenced by the 118.3 scrimmage yards and 17.5 PPR points per game that Najee Harris is averaging in his past three games.
This week, he’ll go up against a Commanders defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA this season. Expect this streak to continue.
Lastly, it seems the San Francisco 49ers are opening the 21-day practice window for Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) to return to play.
That said, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to debut as soon in Week 10. But even if he does, it’s reasonable to anticipate the team is light on his workload, leaving room for teammate Jordan Mason to step up and perform well against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s allowed 130.8 rushing yards per game in 2024.
They might well both be worthy of fantasy consideration in this matchup.
Week 10 Running Back Sits
- Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. MIN)
- Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (@ LAC)
- Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (vs NYG)
The best practice at this point suggests avoiding the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield.
The distribution of work between Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby is still relatively ambiguous since Etienne Jr.’s return from injury, and this week, they’ll face a Minnesota Vikings front that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game (81.9) to opposing offenses this season.
This is also an excellent opportunity to mention that if you can move any piece of this Jaguars backfield for anything substantive on your trade market, that will probably be a good idea. Between their irritating committee split and the team's 38 percent rush rate, it’s apparent that there isn’t much juice to squeeze.
Transitioning a bit, to be clear, Tony Pollard is only listed here because of touchdown concerns. His role still makes him viable, but warning managers to temper expectations seems wise here.
The Los Angeles Chargers’ defense has allowed the fewest rushing yards (28) and rushing touchdowns (two) in the red zone in 2024, according to Lineups. Perhaps he can leverage his way to relevance through volume, but don’t be shocked to see him stonewalled near the promised land on Sunday.
As for Hubbard, I feel like benching him out of fear for the return of Jonathon Brooks (ACL). Even a tiny portion of the work going to Brooks encroaches on Hubbard's main appeal: volume.
According to Fantasy Points Data, the veteran is logging a 70 percent snap share and 64.3 percent share of the Panthers’ backfield carries this season. While I won't sit here and predict an immediate change of guard if a player's main appeal is the reality that the backfield was primarily to themselves, and now their second-round pick of the same position is returning to play, how else are you to react?
Week 10 Wide Receiver Starts
- Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (vs TEN)
- Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (@ TB)
- Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (@ KC)
Since Week 7, the Chargers have had a PROE of at least +5.2 percent. That’s a rather sizable boost from the -7.3 percent that they cumulatively posted before that point.
One of the primary beneficiaries of this passing attack is rookie Ladd McConkey, who has seen no fewer than six targets per game in all but one contest this season (Week 2 vs. the Carolina Panthers).
In the three-week span referenced before, the former Georgia standout is averaging 5.3 catches and 73.7 receiving yards per game. We’re looking at a weekly low-end WR2 or flex option here, folks. These are the types of players who can win you weeks with a safe scoring floor.
Another such player is Jauan Jennings, who you may remember was a helpful contributor back in Weeks 3 and 4 when he led the team in air yards share (34.5 percent and 31.6 percent) while dealing with injuries to players like Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle.
Don’t let Jennings’ absence due to a hip injury make you forget the type of impact he’s capable of having in fantasy lineups.
We close this section by reminding everyone that Courtland Sutton has been an absolute monster during the past two weeks, churning out 7.5 catches and 111.0 receiving yards per game on average.
Do I suggest unquestioningly expecting huge numbers out of him in a tough matchup vs. the Chiefs (seventh in pass defense DVOA)? No, but rookie Bo Nix will have to rely on Sutton's experience if Denver wants to pull out a victory on Sunday.
Week 10 Wide Receiver Sits
- Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears (vs NE)
- Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (vs DEN)
- Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (vs TEN)
Simply put, Keenan Allen has disappointed fantasy managers in 2024.
Despite ranking second on the Bears in target share (21.1 percent) and air yards share (31.4 percent) this season, Allen has one game over double-digit PPR points and is averaging just 8.8 points per game.
This is a far cry from the 21.5 points per game he averaged last year with the Chargers or the 15+ points per game he logged in his seven previous seasons. You’d assume someone with as much involvement as he’s had would produce for fantasy, but it just hasn’t turned out that way.
Perhaps this is more of a eulogy for a long-time stalwart than anything else, but reminding managers that Allen’s best days are behind him felt appropriate at this juncture.
With Xavier Worthy, he’s a super speedy, very talented player, but his issue is that he’s a touchdown-dependent asset for fantasy.
For context, the former Texas wideout averages 15.7 points per game when he finds the end zone (four games) vs. 3.4 when he doesn’t (four games). In his defense, Worthy had two straight games with eight targets prior to Week 9, but he only saw two in Monday night’s showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with DeAndre Hopkins in tow.
Yep, you got that right: despite a 100 percent route participation rate on 40 snaps – 17 coming from in the slot – Worthy only saw two targets. To drive home my point from earlier about Mahomes, I think this is the Hopkins show now, and Worthy will resume as a big play gadget.
It also doesn’t help matters that the Denver Broncos’ secondary ranks eighth in pass defense DVOA. Worthy is just too big of a gamble for me at this stage of the game.
As for Johnston, I’ve written about why he’s a lousy idea twice this week across multiple articles. Beating down that point again would just be cruel, so I’ll share this tweet with you all one more time for good measure and leave it there:
Week 10 Tight End Starts
- Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (@ BAL)
- T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (@ JAC)
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers (vs NYG)
In full transparency, I listed Gesicki as a “sit” last week, but only to point out the dramatic effect of teammate WR Tee Higgins's health on his role.
I should’ve done a better job of reiterating that you should absolutely go all in on Gesicki if Higgins is out. In four games sans Higgins, the former Penn State standout is posting a 19.1 percent target share, 25.2 percent air yards share (leads team), and 15.1 PPR points per game.
As of this writing, it seems as though Higgins is tracking to miss Thursday night’s contest against the Baltimore Ravens. Should that come to fruition, plug in Gesicki and let the points flow.
With Hockenson, I’m sure people were disappointed that he didn’t immediately go off in the box score, but he wasn’t that bad. He was on the field for 27 pass play snaps in Week 9 vs. the Colts, 37 percent of which were in the slot.
The former Pro Bowler also had three catches on four targets, which isn’t a bad comeback for a guy who shredded his knee a year ago. This one is just a matter of patience and trusting the process. The fruits will bear themselves soon.
Calling back just once more to previous points I’ve written about this week, Ja’Tavion Sanders is averaging 5.8 targets and 52.5 receiving yards per game, dating back to Week 5 (excluding a goose egg in Week 8 against the Broncos). He is by far the cheapest and broadly available good tight end out there.
Week 10 Tight End Sits
- Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins (@ LAR)
- Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams (vs MIA)
Neither tight end in this Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams contest should be in lineups.
Jonnu Smith has been useless since QB Tua Tagovailoa returned from IR. To his credit, this Dolphins pass-catcher has earned a mere six targets in the last two weeks, resulting in nine catches for 66 yards.
Sounds good on the surface, right?
However, through Week 7, Smith was lining up as a slot receiver on 58.3 percent of his passing snaps. During the past two weeks, it’s only happening on 40.2 percent of snaps. None of this is great news by any means. His role is shrinking; it might be time to pack it in.
The same goes for Colby Parkinson.
Since the return of QB Matthew Stafford’s buddies, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Pakinson has become the fourth wheel. It started in Week 7, ahead of their arrival, when Parkinson saw two targets, tying a season-low. In his last three games, he has a total of four targets, with not a single one coming in Week 9 against Seattle.
Week 10 is also a terrible matchup for Parkinson, regardless. Miami has the eighth-best defense against fantasy tight ends, allowing 7.5 half-PPR points per game to the position, per FantasyPros.
Barring some wild twist of circumstances, there’s no path to significant viability for either.
