NFL Analysis
1/8/25
13 min read
Every NFL Team's Biggest X-Factor Entering 2025 Wild Card Weekend
The NFL playoffs have arrived after an 18-week journey that brought upon historic performances across the league. Whether your favorite team is playing in the postseason or not should dissuade you from watching the action during the next few weeks. Now is when legends are made and legacies are established.
We often think of a team's quarterback as the biggest x-factor for their playoff success, but that's not always the case. Elite teams generally get consistent performances from their signal-callers, so our list of every postseason team's biggest playoff x-factors minimizes the inclusion of quarterbacks.
Instead, we're looking at under-the-radar contributors who can either introduce themselves to a national audience or redefine what the public thinks of them. Whether it's been a recent injury that has spurred some individuals into bigger roles, getting out of a slump, or simply being the most important role player for a unit to improve, these x-factors have an unusually large burden on their shoulders.
Every Team's Biggest Playoff X-Factor
At some point, each of these players will be in a position to do more than what their regular role might require. Going above and beyond can transform their postseason run and career. Failing to step up might doom their Super Bowl dreams.
NOWHERE TO GO 😈 pic.twitter.com/kTFq2MAz25
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 21, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs: Joshua Williams, CB 
Stats: 33 tackles, 6 passes defensed
The departure of L'Jarius Sneed hurt the Chiefs' defense in terms of individual talent, but the unit still operates at a league-best level because of the moving parts Steve Spagnuolo expertly manages. Joshua Williams was asked to play a part in replacing Sneed, but he missed a month of action almost as soon as the season started. His return to action in Week 7 wasn't smooth, but the Chiefs continued to feed him snaps until he found his groove by Week 13.
In the last six games, Williams has become more comfortable and competent as the team's right cornerback. Opposing quarterbacks have topped a 77.8 passing rating just twice since Week 9 as opposed to going 4/4 in his first four games played. Williams is rounding into a reliable option by allowing only three penalties since Week 10 and one touchdown total on the year.
If Williams can continue that trend against top competition, the Chiefs' defense will be as close to bulletproof as they come in the modern NFL.
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR
Stats: 58 receptions, 1,001 yards, 7 TDs
The Detroit Lions don't need Jameson Williams to be anything more than the decoy he usually is. Used much like Sammy Watkins was with the Chiefs, Williams' speed is an accounted-for x-factor in every single game he plays, even if he's never targeted. The Lions' offense doesn't work the same if Williams isn't demanding safety help so often.
However, the NFC's No. 1 seed will eventually turn to Williams. Even with only three 100-yard games this season, the former first-round pick became a bigger part of the target pecking order as the year progressed. He's seen at least five targets in every game since Week 10 compared to only two in the season's first six outings.
Williams' yards per catch have dipped during that time, but his catch rate and production have improved. That's now an important part of the passing game for a team that will rely highly on the offense to win three more games. Williams has to convert those big-play opportunities that are inevitably coming to him.
Philadelphia Eagles: Moro Ojomo, DT
Stats: 20 tackles, 31 quarterback pressures
It's kind of funny that the former seventh-round pick who is behind two high-end first-round talents is the Philadelphia Eagles' biggest x-factor, but there are levels to why. The Eagles are highly star-dependent on offense, so we know what to expect on that side of the ball. The defense is young and still evolving, so Moro Ojomo's rise into being a quality role player has increased his importance.
A pass-rushing specialist who grades poorly against the run, Ojomo's impact comes in spurts. He's mastered how to get the most out of his 20 or so snaps per game during the last six weeks. Of his 31 total quarterback pressures in 2024, 17 have come since Week 13. When he subs in for Jordan Davis, the Eagles see results.
With the Eagles facing a playoff path, including Green Bay and several other pass-happy offenses, Ojomo will see a fair share of snaps. If he disappears, the Eagles' young secondary will have a harder time holding up.
Von Miller just earned a $1.5 million bonus with this sack 🤑
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 5, 2025
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/Wwqqx64jB4
Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, EDGE
Stats: 17 tackles, 6 sacks
A former Super Bowl MVP, Von Miller is not a name to forget in the twilight of his career. Coming back from a torn ACL that has ruined the majority of his time with Buffalo, Miller has found success as a rotational edge rusher who excels in short bursts. Buffalo keeps the 35-year-old fresh by limiting him to under 30 snaps, and Miller has responded with a solid season.
With 32 quarterback pressures and six sacks in only 279 snaps, Miller is still a premier pass-rusher in small doses. He shouldn't be needed often in the Wild Card Round against Denver, but showdowns in later matchups will require his presence. Look for Buffalo to unleash Miller as often as possible in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships if they reach that far.
Baltimore Ravens: Marlon Humphrey, CB
Stats: 67 tackles, 6 TDs, 15 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles
Projecting the biggest x-factor on the Baltimore Ravens isn't an easy task. Their pass rush needs to see Tavius Robinson complement their more established veterans and for Travis Jones to continue playing well. But their secondary plays a bend-don't-break style, so selecting one of their younger options to blossom makes sense.
Instead, I went with the star, Marlon Humphrey. The physical stalwart of the unit has been phenomenal at an unexpected part of his career, forcing six interceptions while limiting offenses to a 61.2 passer rating against him. Offenses are completing 61.4 percent of targets on Humphrey but doing little damage, as he's allowed an average target depth of only 7.3 yards.
If Humphrey can avoid penalties (he has 11 this year) and continue being a ballhawk, the Ravens might survive despite having the 31st-ranked passing defense. The key is being opportunistic and supporting an offense that has struggled mightily in the postseason. There's no better candidate to lead the unit than Humphrey.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan, WR
Stats: 37 receptions, 431 yards, 8 TDs
The start of Jalen McMillan's rookie season wasn't nearly as seamless as many evaluators projected. He struggled to see the field behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Tampa Bay was hesitant to feed him targets. Until Week 15, McMillan could've been called a bust, producing more than 35 yards just once.
However, last month, a switch was flipped in McMillan. He's been a more prominent feature within the offense, and his role in beating New Orleans to win the NFC South already capped off a great finish to the season. He has four straight games with five receptions and at least 51 yards. Seven of his eight touchdowns have come in the last five outings.
Evans will always be the alpha in Tampa Bay, but McMillan now has Baker Mayfield's trust. They must continue leaning into their emerging star to survive in the playoffs.
Line does a nice job protecting here for Stroud to find John Metchie deep on the pseudo-dagger concept #HTownMade pic.twitter.com/mfFdSGiKTR
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) December 27, 2024
Houston Texans: John Metchie III, WR
Stats: 24 receptions, 254 yards, 1 TD
Other teams might've been dealt a worse hand than what the Houston Texans have overcome this season, but there aren't obvious choices. Losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell further complicated what Houston does on offense, which was already handicapped with second-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik completely losing the magic he had as a play-caller in 2024. It's a bare-bones squad compared to what they started the year with.
John Metchie III has become an important part of the offense as they search for answers. With other options including 32-year-old Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson, the Texans' former second-round pick has been the de facto No. 2 to Nico Collins. Just getting to this point with Metchie is a bit of a miracle, considering he overcame cancer as a rookie.
However, it's time for what happens on the field to be the story for Metchie. Despite totaling only 254 yards and one touchdown on 24 receptions this season, he's now in the spotlight. The slot receiver has to create plays beyond how they're drawn up to take pressure off C.J. Stroud.
Los Angeles Rams: Kamren Kinchens, SAF
Stats: 57 tackles, 4 INTs, 6 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble
A true ballhawk at the collegiate level who dropped in the 2024 NFL Draft due to a terrible combine performance and concerns over his tackling ability, Kamren Kinchens has been one of the better rookie defenders in the NFL. His range has translated from Miami to Los Angeles, and the Rams use him as a third safety to protect their young cornerbacks. With four interceptions on the season, Kinchens is an impact presence.
Playing at least 30 snaps in every game since Week 8, Kinchens has even shown major progress in improving his pursuit angles and tackling efficiency. His biggest weakness is playing in man coverage, where offenses are producing a 79.3 percent catch rate for 283 yards and four touchdowns. However, avoiding those situations should be doable for the Rams.
The Rams are still a scary team to face because of their coaching ability and explosive offense. If Kinchens can force a turnover or compete in coverage, he can swing a drive or game.
Minnesota Vikings: Jihad Ward, DL
Stats: 10 tackles, 1 sack, 31 QB pressures
Another unlikely x-factor who gets little love because he's a 30-year-old role player, Jihad Ward's career journey was never supposed to receive recognition. Playing on his seventh team in nine seasons, Ward is one of Brian Flores' best rehabilitation thus far. The 287-pounder has found a home as a pass-rushing defensive lineman who opens opportunities for his teammates to finish sacks.
Totaling 31 quarterback pressures, Ward set career-highs in pass-rush effectiveness despite having only one sack. Flores has asked Ward to forget about run assignments as much, where Ward struggles to disengage from blockers and finish tackles.
Instead, he's simply penetrating with his quickness and length, and it's boosting a defense lacking defined talent across the unit.
Quentin Johnston today: 13 catches, 186 receiving yards.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 6, 2025
A really cool story in player development from year one-to-year two pic.twitter.com/jiTv2b6fX4
Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR
Stats: 42 receptions, 525 yards, 8 TDs
The Los Angeles Chargers made it to the postseason despite relying on one of the least efficient receivers in recent league history as a primary option for Justin Herbert. The second-year playmaker saw a slight boost from his rookie numbers, catching 42 passes for 525 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite that, Quentin Johnston's also incredibly inconsistent, being credited with five drops and catching only five of 18 contested catches.
Johnston's role has changed as Jim Harbaugh has seen his inability to track balls downfield. His yards per reception have plummeted to under 10 yards over the last five games as opposed to marks in the 20s until then. The result is more catches for Johnston and a more efficient offense overall.
The 6-foot-3 receiver has only two games with more than 48 yards all season. Herbert needs more help than that, and Johnston is as physically capable of transcending a moment as anyone. Can he deliver?
Washington Commanders: Marshon Lattimore, CB
Stats: 34 tackles, 0 INTs, 5 pass breakups
The trade deadline acquisition of Marshon Lattimore was supposed to give head coach Dan Quinn someone to overhaul his secondary around. The playmaking defensive back is one of the best tackling, physical cornerbacks in the league, and his ball skills are dangerous despite waning in recent years. Instead, Lattimore's hamstring has severely limited his opportunities.
With only 116 snaps over two games played since joining the Commanders, now is the time for Lattimore to reward his new franchise with a big showing. While Mike Sainristil has looked formidable in his rookie year, other young corners, Noah Igbinoghene and Benjamin St-Juste, struggle to hold their own each week. Lattimore has to play over one of them.
Facing Tampa Bay also revives a familiar rivalry that everyone loves to watch: Mike Evans against Lattimore. Things look good for the Commanders to have Lattimore this coming weekend, so hopefully, we'll get the best from each star.
Green Bay Packers: Carrington Valentine, CB
Stats: 32 tackles, 2 INTs, 2 forced fumbles, 5 pass breakups
Being without Jaire Alexander further complicates Green Bay's path to the Super Bowl because that's a defensive unit surviving without elite playmakers. In his place, Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes have done their best to fill the void as outside corners. Valentine has been better, and his play over the last month points toward him being a long-term building block for the franchise.
The former seventh-rounder has limited offenses to only 11 receptions for 112 yards over the last four games, but he's picked off two passes. Green Bay favors zone assignments, and Valentine fills his role well. When they get more aggressive, the 6-foot, 189-pounder is their best option against top receivers.
This week, Valentine will have his hands full with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. If he plays well, expect Valentine to become a household name.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Russell Wilson, QB
Stats: 214/336 (63.7%), 2,482 yards, 16 TDs, 5 INTs
The start of the Russell Wilson era in Pittsburgh started off with a bang, but the veteran has struggled to maintain the pace he set upon getting healthy. Whether it's defenses adjusting to how the Steelers play with Wilson or Wilson's 36-year-old body breaking down, the Steelers haven't gotten good quarterback play in a month. It's worth questioning whether Wilson is a better option than Justin Fields.
It is highly concerning to see Wilson's total passing yards not break 217 yards and his yards per attempt crater to under 6.2 yards in four of his last five outings. The Steelers need to go all-out against Baltimore this week, and that means ripping the ball downfield. Wilson's best play in his first six weeks on the field included four games with at least a 9.1 yards per attempt average.
Getting to that point changes the Steelers' offensive attack and makes it much more dangerous. If Wilson fails to do that, his tenure in Pittsburgh might be over after one season.
Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB
Stats: 376/567 (66.3%), 3,775 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs
There's not much debate about what Bo Nix has been throughout his rookie season. He's a game manager in Sean Payton's offense despite not having a great running game or cast of receivers. Nix averages only 6.7 yards per attempt and protects the ball reasonably well, and that's been enough to complement a terrific defense.
That's not enough to win in the playoffs. Nix needs to compensate for a limited playmaker corps, which is probably too much to ask of him right now. That's not a knock on Nix. But that's the expectation.
If Nix grabs the bull by the horns and becomes a more aggressive passer, the Broncos could play spoiler for a favored opponent.
