NFL Analysis
1/24/25
7 min read
Each Team's Biggest X-Factor for 2025 NFL Conference Championship Games
The race to the Super Bowl is almost over, as Conference Championship weekend has arrived. The NFL Divisional Round brought us excellent games in which some of the league's biggest stars stepped up or struggled to rise to the occasion. The stakes get even higher now, as a trip to New Orleans will become part of each player's legacy.
We'll see some familiar matchups in the 2025 NFL Conference Championship weekend, as the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Buffalo Bills face the Kansas City Chiefs. An NFC East team will make it to the Super Bowl, with the Commanders looking to get back for the first time since 1991. Buffalo is also looking to end its long streak, as it hasn't reached the Big Game since 1994.
Each roster has one major x-factor who can completely swing the outcome of this weekend's games. If this x-factor delivers, their team will not lose. Will each team properly prioritize getting their x-factor in a position to succeed?
Biggest Conference Championship X-Factors
Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Bolton, LB 
While the Chiefs and Bills have split their last eight matchups, the Chiefs have owned their playoff battles with a 3-0 margin. Josh Allen's numbers drop significantly in the postseason as the Chiefs clamp down. His yards per attempt and completion rate are much lower, but the most important part of slowing Allen down is limiting his rushing production.
Looking back at the November 17th matchup, in which Buffalo held their home field with a 30-21 win, Allen became only the second quarterback to rush for at least 50 yards on the Kansas City defense. His 55 yards weren't especially groundbreaking, but he eliminated several key defenders with his play. One of those is LB Nick Bolton.
Nick Bolton this year:
— fatty patty (@theonlydyl_) December 24, 2024
• 98 tackles
• 3 sacks
• 11 TFL
• 4 PD
• 1 INT
• 1 FF
• 1 FR pic.twitter.com/VF0ziKpQdg
Bolton had only one tackle in 26 run plays and was continually taken advantage of when he was in space. Considering Bolton struggles in coverage, he has to be a reliable hammer in the run game and use his 240-pound frame to deliver effective hits on Allen. Otherwise, the Chiefs are effectively playing without a useful body against the NFL's scariest quarterback.
For the Chiefs' defense to survive, Bolton has to turn in one of the better games of his career. He's posted a career-worst missed tackle rate throughout this season, seeing that percentage increase every year since his rookie campaign. His 14.5 percent mark in 2024 is almost three times as bad as his rookie rate of 5.6 percent.
As you can imagine, if Bolton is a sieve in the run game and ineffective in helping in coverage, the Bills have an easy target to pick on all game.
Buffalo Bills: Amari Cooper, WR 
The Bills run their offense through their slot receivers and have transitioned away from being reliant on outside playmakers. Through two games thus far, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel have combined for 18 targets, 17 receptions, 205 yards, and one touchdown. The rest of the team has only 19 receptions for 194 yards and one touchdown.
Even if the rest of the team pie, Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook make up most of those numbers. That leaves Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Mack Hollins with only six receptions for 49 yards through two games. Kansas City will use Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Joshua Williams on slot receivers instead of the outside targets if Buffalo will ignore its outside threats.
That means it's time for Cooper to prove he has gas left in the tank. The Bills were widely praised for acquiring Cooper from the Cleveland Browns for a 2025 third-round pick and a 2026 seventh-round pick. However, Cooper has been a non-factor most of his time with Buffalo, catching 22 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games.
Bills Injury Report prior to 30-21 win over Kansas City ⬇️
— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) January 22, 2025
Matt Milano - Out ❌
Spencer Brown - Out ❌
Dalton Kincaid - Out ❌
Keon Coleman - Out ❌
Amari Cooper - Questionable
◽️played w/ soft cast
◽️ 2 rec., 55 yards
Bills unquestionably healthier now‼️#BillsMafia… pic.twitter.com/cFYgQKCkrF
Feeding Cooper more than five targets may not be necessary, but he's had only two games with more than three targets. His two-catch, 55-yard outing against Kansas City was an x-factor performance because he maximized his opportunities. Interestingly, Buffalo has utilized Cooper less and less in recent weeks, and he's failed to see 20 pass plays in every game since Week 14.
While it might seem like Buffalo doesn't need Cooper this week because of his reduced involvement, he's the most qualified player on the roster for Joe Brady to unleash as a surprise. Buffalo will need to go against tendencies at some point, and now is the best time.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter, DT 
It might be unfair to say a team's x-factor is one of the best and most dominant players in the league, but we have two games from this season to look back at for this rubber match between Philadelphia and Washington. Washington struggled to handle Jalen Carter in the first matchup, and he racked up five tackles with four run stops and one quarterback pressure in the Eagles' win.
However, Carter was exposed in a poor performance against Washington five weeks later. Washington effectively moved the pocket, and Jayden Daniels could manipulate defenders with more confidence. Carter had four pressures on Daniels, but he missed four tackles and had only two run stops. He struggled to operate in more space because he is 315 pounds and was chasing a jitterbug in Daniels.
Jalen Carter PICKS UP a sack on that one 😏 pic.twitter.com/DnwHlijbbo
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 19, 2025
There's not a ton Philadelphia can do to prevent some of Washington's game plan of getting Daniels on the move. Simply having Jalen Hurts back for a full game will help avoid the defense playing almost 70 snaps as they did in Week 16, and a less-tired Carter will be more effective. However, the other part of it is for Carter to find the balance of creating pressure and cutting off angles so his teammates can finish plays when he can't.
Washington Commanders: Marshon Lattimore, CB 
Busting trends while still leaning into strengths is a difficult task, but Commanders coach Dan Quinn has done a masterful job in his first postseason in the nation's capital. The Commanders ran one of the heaviest man-coverage rates in the NFL during the regular season despite not boasting an impressive cornerback room.
Even with Marshon Lattimore back in the lineup for the wild-card round, Tampa Bay had significant success against man looks, so Quinn adjusted.
Detroit's offense was stifled by Washington flipping the script. According to Warren Sharp, Washington played zone coverage on 35 of 40 dropbacks. Jared Goff responded by throwing three interceptions and seeing his completion percentage drop.
Jalen Hurts has better weapons than Detroit had available, and A.J. Brown is particularly devastating against zone, so the gameplan can't be just copied from last week and expect it to work perfectly. Lattimore will be in the spotlight in man coverage, and he has to hold his own so Washington can throw blended and mixed coverages at Hurts.
The difference in Lattimore's play between the Wild Card and Divisional Round was significant. He allowed six catches on seven targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. His rivalry with Mike Evans goes back and forth, but there's no reason to think Brown can't find success if Lattimore plays man that often.
Last week's showing brought out a more effective Lattimore. He was targeted once and allowed zero completions. His run defense was also more effective, and we know Saquon Barkley will be the featured star for the Eagles.