Analysis
10/22/22
10 min read
Week 7 DFS Main Slate Tournament Games
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, be sure to ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
Double Stacks
Stack: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR Micheal Gallup
Runback: WR Amon-Ra St.Brown
The Detroit Lions have allowed three quarterbacks to have over a 20-point output against them this season, and the only two that didn't were Kirk Cousins and Bailey Zappe. Prescott practiced in full, and I believe he will have no limitations from his throwing hand. Stacking the Cowboys can go many ways, but I am going with the two primary targets for Prescott. Lamb will draw plenty of Jeff Okudah but travels into the slot enough to make plays, and that has been an area where the Lions have struggled. Lamb has played in the slot on over 50% of routes in the last three games and over 70% last weekend vs. the Eagles. On the other hand, Gallup will be a home run hitter for the offense available in this matchup. The Lions have been tested down the field this year, resulting in big games for AJ Brown and DK Metcalf.
It's impossible to trust the Detroit Lions backfield with D'Andre Swift having the questionable tag, and with that, I will play St.Brown, who has practiced in full. The Cowboys have been an elite defense this year, but St.Brown is in for another high reception total with the Lions' scheme. In his last game, he underperformed, but six targets on 21 snaps is a sign of his elite-level usage.
Single Stacks
Stack: QB Lamar Jackson and TE Mark Andrews
Runback: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones,
The news on Rashod Bateman is the biggest one of the weekend for Jackson's ceiling. Against the blitz with Bateman, Jackson averages 10.8 yards per attempt with an 18% touchdown pass rate on 36 attempts. Without Bateman, he averages 4.9 yards per attempt with a 3% touchdown pass rate on 38 attempts. Last weekend, the Browns blitzed on 50% of dropbacks, which could replicate this weekend. Regardless, this Browns defense is underperforming, and Jackson has the highest ceiling of any quarterback on the slate for what he can do on the ground. Andrews has scored in five of the last six games against Cleveland with over ten targets in two straight. On the season, Andrews has over a 29% target share against Zone, Man, and blitz.
The Ravens have been a much better secondary in recent weeks, but with the attention they will have on the run game of Cleveland, I expect the deep shots to be there. Peoples-Jones is the man for the job, and at his price tag on DraftKings makes for a great play in tournaments, and he has had over a 35-yard reception in two of the last three weeks.
Mini-Stacks
Indianapolis at Tennessee
WR Alec Pierce and RB Derrick Henry
Earlier in the week, I was contemplating Matt Ryan Stacks but opted out with the news of Jonathan Taylor being in the lineup, but it does not scare me away from Pierce. According to the EDGE, over 30% of Pierce's route tree have been Posts, Corners, or Fly routes since coming back from injury.
The Titans have given up over 60 yards receiving on just these three routes to five different wide receivers this season. Pierce is one of these five, and he's the only one who could not find the end zone against the Titans. I expect Pierce to find the end zone and have a big game against this Titans' secondary.
Henry has had over 100 yards rushing in five of the last seven matchups against the Colts. Henry had 147 yards with a touchdown in their first matchup this season, and I am not overthinking this matchup. The Titans are off a bye week at home, and Henry is 100% healthy.
New York Giants at Jacksonville
RB Saquon Barkley and WR Christian Kirk
Brian Daboll continues to get Barkley the ball in various ways, and we have seen the Jaguars struggle against running backs this season. Miles Sanders had 156 yards, Dameon Pierce had 113 yards, and Jonathan Taylor averaged six yards a carry. Barkley is a running back to pay up for this weekend.
Kirk has had all of his production come from the slot, and the Giants are giving up the seventh most yards per route run from the slot position. With a blitz-heavy scheme like Wink Martindale, Kirk holds a 29% target share against the blitz and will see a massive target share in this game. Against a blitz, Kirk averages 2.4 yards per route run, and the Giants have blitzed on over 40% of dropbacks in 66% of games this season.
Atlanta at Cincinnati
TE Kyle Pitts and WR Tyler Boyd
Pitts returned to action from injury and has finally scored a touchdown in America. Pitts ran over 80% of the routes for the second time this year and commanded a 21% target share. The problem is that the Falcons do not throw much, but at his price and in a spot where they could throw the ball more, he is worth the price tag. Three tight ends have had over 70 yards against the Bengals this season, and Pitts should be utilized.
Tee Higgins has been limited recently, and Ja'Marr Chase will draw a ton of attention so I will look to Boyd in this matchup. The Falcons are giving up 1.8 yards per route run to slot wide receivers this season, and Boyd dominates the snaps in the slot.
New York Jets at Denver
RB Breece Hall and WR Courtland Sutton
Hall is the key to this New York Jets offense because he is extremely talented and helps prevent Zach Wilson from turnovers. The Broncos have been an elite defense, but they have shown signs of struggling against the run. Hall has gotten the touches and will continue to see them in this matchup.
Sutton carries a high target share vs. each coverage, and the Jets have struggled with wide receivers with a big frame. George Pickens had 102 yards on six receptions, Allen Lazard four receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown, Tee Higgins five receptions for 93 yards, and one play, called back that should have been a big touchdown.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
WR Chris Godwin and RB Chubba Hubbard
In the two games where Godwin ran over 80% of the routes, he led or tied the team for the lead in targets. Of the wide receivers that have been productive against the Panthers, at least 50% of their production came from playing in the slot.
Chubba Hubbard is getting the start at running back for Carolina, and that leaves him as the player to mini-stack with Godwin. I'm not going to force this mini-stack, and still treat Godwin as a high priority one-off player.
Green Bay at Washington
WR Allen Lazard and WR Terry McLaurin
The Commanders are giving up a ton of points to wide receivers, and without Randall Cobb, Lazard has a chance to get mixed around the formation and schemed up touches. Lazard has three straight games with a 20% target share and is in a matchup that Aaron Rodgers will look to take advantage of.
Taylor Heinicke will be the quarterback this weekend for the Commanders, and we should see McLaurin be heavily targeted. McLaurin had 11 games of at least seven targets, and he only has two of those games this year. The Packers have had three wide receivers see seven or more targets, and three saw over 70 yards receiving.
Seattle at Los Angeles Chargers
RB Kenneth Walker and TE Gerald Everett
Walker has the vision to be a great running back in this league and put it on full display during last week's game against the Cardinals. He is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and is in a matchup where the Chargers give up 5.8 yards per carry to running backs. Tyler Lockett has also popped up on the injury report, and I could see Seattle leaning on Walker, who saw 21 carries in his first start.
There are two Chargers that I have a lot of interest in Austin Ekeler and Everett. Both players are in matchups that can be exploited, which says a lot about the front seven of the Seahawks. I lean toward Everett in this matchup because of the position's pricing and scarcity. I believe plenty of running backs can get over 30 points and very few tight ends that can see getting over 20 points. Both are very strong plays to me and should not be avoided.
One-Offs
RB Josh Jacobs
Jacobs is the primary one-off this weekend and will be a popular choice on both DFS platforms. The Texans have allowed three running backs to get over 30 DraftKings points, and Jacobs has back-to-back games of over 140 yards rushing.
Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | vs CLE | $8,000 | $8,800 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | vs DET | $6,700 | $7,500 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | vs SEA | $8,300 | $9,500 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | vs IND | $8,200 | $9,200 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | @ BAL | $8,000 | $8,900 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | @ JAC | $7,900 | $9,300 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | TB | @ CAR | $7,700 | $8,400 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GB | @ WAS | $7,600 | $6,800 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | DET | @ DAL | $6,800 | $7,800 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | vs HOU | $6,500 | $8,600 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | @ DEN | $6,200 | $7,600 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | @ DAL | $6,100 | $7,800 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | vs DET | $6,000 | $6,900 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | SEA | @ LAC | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | JAC | vs NYG | $5,400 | $6,200 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | BAL | vs CLE | $5,100 | $6,600 |
| D'Onta Foreman | RB | CAR | vs TB | $4,000 | $4,900 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LV | vs HOU | $8,700 | $8,600 |
| JaMarr Chase | WR | CIN | vs ATL | $8,200 | $8,500 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | IND | @ TEN | $7,400 | $7,500 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | vs SEA | $7,200 | $7,800 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | @ DAL | $7,100 | $7,500 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | vs DET | $6,800 | $7,700 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | vs SEA | $6,700 | $7,300 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | @ LAC | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | @ CAR | $6,300 | $7,000 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | vs NYJ | $6,200 | $7,000 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | GB | @ WAS | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | vs GB | $5,900 | $6,200 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | @ CIN | $5,400 | $6,000 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | vs CLE | $5,200 | $6,500 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | vs DET | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | @ WAS | $5,000 | $5,800 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | DET | @ DAL | $4,700 | $6,400 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | @ TEN | $4,600 | $6,100 |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | BAL | vs CLE | $4,500 | $5,900 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | @ JAC | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Noah Brown | WR | DAL | vs DET | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | @ JAC | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | ATL | @ CIN | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | CLE | @ BAL | $4,100 | $5,600 |
| DeAndre Carter | WR | LAC | vs SEA | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | GB | @ WAS | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | vs CLE | $7,400 | $8,500 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | @ CIN | $4,300 | $5,900 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | vs SEA | $4,000 | $6,300 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | DAL | vs DET | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| Evan Engram | TE | JAC | vs NYG | $3,300 | $5,200 |
| Buccaneers | DST | TB | @ CAR | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| Broncos | DST | DEN | vs NYJ | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| Jaguars | DST | JAC | vs NYG | $3,100 | $4,600 |
| Giants | DST | NYG | @ JAC | $2,900 | $4,100 |
| Jets | DST | NYJ | @ DEN | $2,600 | $4,300 |
| Falcons | DST | ATL | @ CIN | $2,400 | $3,300 |
| Panthers | DST | CAR | vs TB | $2,200 | $3,500 |
WATCH MORE: How does Christian McCaffrey's trade to the 49ers affect his fantasy value?
