Week 1 is over, and with a doubleheader on Monday Night, we have one fewer game on the main slate. If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Week 2 doesn’t contain many games with projected high scores, but many lopsided games give high implied totals. For example, the Broncos and Rams have under 48-point totals, but with their spreads being 10 points, they have very high implied totals.
In Week 1, three teams ran man coverage at over 40% of plays, and we will look to attack all of these teams with double stacks below.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Trevon Diggs
Stack: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase
Joe Burrow was sacked seven times, threw four interceptions, and finished with 26 DraftKings points. Burrow had arguably the worst possible performance you could have had but managed to pay off the volume with a 338-yard passing day and six carries for 47 yards. This Cowboys team will give Burrow plenty of man coverage, and Burrow has a 12% touchdown rate and averages ten yards per attempt against man coverage. Joe Mixon isn’t the normal pairing in a Burrow double stack, but he saw nine targets in Week 1. The Cowboys also gave up 5.2 yards per rushing attempt.
In the 525-yard passing day for Burrow against the Ravens in Week 16 last season, Mixon had 135 total yards, six receptions, and two touchdowns, while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins each went for over 120 receiving yards. Tee Higgins news will be a big factor in sticking with this stack instead of Mixon. As for Chase, he averages 3.2 yards per route run in his career vs. man coverage and 19 yards per reception. Chase is one of my favorite players on the entire slate, and I expect him to be under 15% rostered with his price.
Stack: QB Derek Carr, WR Davante Adams, TE Darren Waller
Runback: WR Greg Dortch
This game has the highest over-under on the entire slate and will be a popular game. The Cardinals run a ton of man coverage, blitz a ton, and do not adjust to the team they are facing. Last week, after a full offseason of film, they decided to play man and blitz Patrick Mahomes. Derek Carr is one of the best quarterbacks against man coverage, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt last year. That was without a player with the caliber of Davante Adams. Adams averaged 3.6 yards per route run vs. man coverage last season, and with the frequency of man coverage, it’s easy to see why he should be included in this stack.
As for Waller, Isaiah Simmons just got taken to school by Travis Kelce, and Waller is another exceptional pass catcher at the tight end position. Last year was an injury-riddled season for Waller, and in 2020 he was targeted on 35% of his routes vs. man coverage. McDaniels is a coordinator that will look for matchups he can take advantage of, and both Adams and Waller will be heavily used in this matchup.
You will need a way to save salary, and Greg Dortch does that. He ran more routes than Marquise Brown, out-targeted him, and had more yards in Week 1. Then, you add that the Chargers could not complete a pass to a player lined up outside, and Dortch primarily lined up in the slot. Without Rondale Moore, Dortch’s full-time role should not be this cheap.
Stack: QB Carson Wentz, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Jahan Dotson
Runback: RB D’Andre Swift
Carson Wentz played extremely well in the first game against the Jaguars and is in another good spot against this Detroit Lions team. The Lions play man coverage at another extremely high rate, and the routes that beat them the most were deep crossers and verticals. Those two routes accounted for over 100 yards of AJ Browns’ 140 yards. Those two routes account for 40% of McLaurin’s route tree in 2021, and he already connected on a vertical route from Wentz in Week 1. Jahan Dotson wasn’t targeted, but in Week 1, that was 42% of the route tree. With the big play opportunity at his price, it is difficult to pass on him.
This Lions’ offensive line was dominant over the Eagles, and against a non-heavy box, Swift averaged 12 yards per carry. James Robinson and Travis Etienne had 14 of their 15 carries against a non-heavy box, and Swift will be in for a big game on the ground. The other player I am considering on the Lions is DJ Chark. He has big-play ability off play action, and he connected on a long touchdown with Jared Goff in Week 1.
Stack: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle
The Ravens’ secondary is again injured, which could result in a significant day for Tua and the Miami Dolphins. We saw what the Ravens’ defense looked like with a depleted secondary against the top-end players at the wide receiver position, and we saw that Miami head coach Mike McDaniel wants the ball in both Hill and Waddle’s hands. Hill had a 39% target share in Week 1, and if the first pass didn’t get tipped, it would have been a massive touchdown. Waddle had a low target share but found the end zone on five targets for 69 yards.
With the Ravens being a better offense, I expect the Dolphins to need to do more on offense than what they had to do in Week 1, and I am shying away from the runback because I am uncertain about the injury of J.K. Dobbins. The Ravens spread the ball around in Week 1. Lamar Jackson’s ability to score rushing touchdowns in the red zone makes it difficult to run back this double stack.
Stack: QB Trey Lance, WR Brandon Aiyuk
Runback: WR D.K. Metcalf
Box score looking will result in many eyes questioning why I am bothering playing this Trey Lance stack. However, I believe he’s a very underpriced player for what his ceiling is. He played in a torrential downpour last week, and we shouldn’t use that as an indication of anything fantasy-related. The 49ers will be home with nice weather this week, and the Seahawks will be without Jamal Adams, a force at safety in the running game.
The 49ers will get a chance to run what offense they have been working on the entire offseason, and I have a feeling it will feature a lot of Brandon Aiyuk down the field, with Deebo Samuel being used in the running game. Lance also gets plenty of work in the running game, as he had eight designed QB runs last week. Running quarterbacks are kings in fantasy, and Lance has a chance to get huge usage on the ground. D.K. Metcalf averages around six targets in his games with Geno Smith and outproduces Lockett in every metric.
NYG @ CAR
- RB Saquon Barkley, WR D.J. Moore
The Panthers had one job in Week 1: stop Nick Chubb. Chubb ran for over 140 yards on 22 attempts and had eight carries against a light box. Saquon Barkley just had 152 yards when teams put six in the box, and that is because Daboll will spread your defense out. Barkley had 163 yards on 17 carries with three receivers on the field. He will also be a threat in the passing game. Overall, Barkley is the best play on the slate.
The Giants’ defense has a new scheme, and Baker Mayfield has played against it eight times in the last four years. He has thrown for over 300 yards in four of these matchups, but most of them have taken over 40 attempts. Jarvis Landry had over 100 yards on three occasions, and D.J. Moore is the player I anticipate having a big bounce-back week. Moore had the same amount of targets as Anderson, outside of one blown coverage, and was the clear leader in every category.
NO @ TB
- WR Michael Thomas, RB Leonard Fournette
Michael Thomas showed up late in the matchup against Atlanta but was the go-to in the situations we want. Thomas drew two of the three targets in the red zone, averaged 2.7 yards per route run, and had an aDOT of 11.3. The Buccaneers have a lot of receivers dealing with injuries. Therefore, I expect them to lean on Leonard Fournette, who looked great in Week 1. This matchup is also good for Fournette; the Saints gave up five yards a carry and allowed Cordarrelle Patterson to break four tackles. Fournette also will not leave the game outside of a breather and is one of the few running backs not in a committee.
WR Cooper Kupp
I don’t believe there will be a time when Cooper Kupp does not enter my player pool. After all, there’s a lot to love. The Falcons gave up 173 receiving yards to the slot player last week, and Kupp will align in the slot for most plays. I don’t think this is the game to get to Kupp, but he will be included in my pool.
RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor is expensive but is in a great matchup vs. the Jaguars and will be leaned on with all of their injuries. Taylor is not a priority this week, but if you are going cheap with the Wentz stack, I see builds where I have the salary.
WR Courtland Sutton
Sutton did not have a touchdown last week. However, watching that game, you could see that he was the primary target for Russell Wilson and the guy he wanted to get involved with down the field. Sutton had 47% of the air yards, a 19-yard aDOT, and he should be the main wide receiver in this matchup.
WR Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson had a very disappointing Week 1, and I anticipate a bounce back in this matchup in the red zone. The Bills didn’t blitz and sacked Matthew Stafford seven times, and for a new receiver, the rhythm isn’t going to be there right away in that situation. However, with ten days to figure out the offensive line and Atlanta matchup, Robinson is in for a bounce-back game.
|Player||Team||Pos||DK Salary||FD Salary|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||WR||$6,500||$6,900|